Swarzaked

Anthony Swarzak pitched a great major league debut for the Twins. I'll take 7 innings and 0 runs anytime. Swarzak is the first Twin pitcher in history to pitch 7 shutout innings in their first major league start. That is very impressive. I'm sure he won't be in the rotation when Perkins returns, but he might be sent to the bullpen. It is nice knowing that there is another quality young starting pitcher available if needed. I wonder if the Twins would ever trade one of their young starting pitchers... I'd trade Perkins or Blackburn for a great young shortstop or second baseman, but not a third baseman. Even though Joe Crede is only signed for this year, I'm not worried about the future of third base for the Twins. Their top prospect in the upper levels of the minors is 3B Danny Valencia. He is killing the ball at AA right now, and I'm sure I'll do an article on him in the next few days...

The other story of the game was Joe Mauer, hitting his 9th home run of the year, matching his home run total from last year in just 21 games. No doubt, this guy has been the best hitter in baseball this month. It sure is fun to see him hitting .429, getting on-base .516% of the time and slugging .844. Those are just sick numbers! He's on pace for 60 homers and 185 RBI's. I know he's not likely to keep that pace up for the whole season, but if he did, he would have the greatest non-steroid offensive season of all-time. At his pace he could hit over .400, break Roger Maris pre-steroid HR mark of 61, and win the triple crown. I know that is extremely unlikely and premature, but it is fun to dream. And the kid is just 26.

It has been great to see Michael Cuddyer return to form. The guy is just locked in. Hits for the cycle last night, and now is second on the team with 30 RBI. Plus 7 homers. It has been great to have a right-handed power bat in the lineup, especially since Delmon Young isn't developing the power we'd hoped to have seen from him at this point.

At this point Mauer and Morneau have to be the best 1-2 punch in the majors. And Span, Mauer, Morneau, Kubel, and Cuddyer form a nice little offensive juggernaut. And Crede is not a bad guy to have at #6 with his seven homers. Now if the bottom third of the lineup would just start hitting, the Twins would have an amazing lineup all the way through. But it needs to start with Delmon Young. He should return to the lineup today, and I hope he starts heating up now. He usually starts off the season slowly, so hopefully he is past that now.

Breslow gone. Swarzak called up.

Today the Twins announced that Craig Breslow has been claimed off waivers by Oakland.  Anthony Swarzak has been called up to replace Breslow on the roster.  Swarzak will be the Twins starting pitcher on Saturday against the Brewers.  He should get a couple of starts while Perkins is on the DL.  If he impresses, he might be put in the bullpen when Perkins comes back (which should be in 15 days.)  

Delmon Young returns this weekend and I'm sure Jose Morales will be sent back down to AAA Rochester when Young returns.  Besides that move, I'd expect the next move will be to get rid of Luis Ayala.  I still can't understand why the Twins thought he'd be a good sign.  He was in the horrid Mets bullpen last year and was cut and was then on the Nationals.  I don't know about you but I don't really want to see a cast-off from the Nationals playing on my team.  I'd imagine the next guy to be called up would be relief pitcher Bobby Keppel.  He is the other pitcher in AAA Rochester's bullpen that has pitched great this year.  Hopefully though the Twins will call up Rob Delaney and Anthony Slama, or at least promote them to AAA.

Projected HR Totals

From ESPN statistics, here are what their projected home run totals are for the Twins:

52 - Joe Mauer
50 - Justin Morneau
27 - Joe Crede
22 - Jason Kubel
17 - Michael Cuddyer
11 - Brendan Harris
8 - Denard Span
8 - Brian Buscher
6 - Delmon Young
0 - Carlos Gomez
0 - Nick Punto
0 - Matt Tolbert
0 - Mike Redmond

And time to redo my predictions:
Justin Morneau - 38
Joe Mauer - 34
Jason Kubel - 26
Joe Crede - 22
Michael Cuddyer - 18
Delmon Young - 13
Carlos Gomez - 10
Brendan Harris - 9
Denard Span - 7
Brian Buscher - 6
Alexi Casilla - 4
Nick Punto - 1
Matt Tolbert - 1
Mike Redmond - 0

Predicting home run totals

Last season the Twins only hit 111 home runs while their opponents hit 183 against them. Only two players on the Twins hit more than 20(Morneau and Kubel) and only one more hit in double digits (Young). That said, I believe the Twins will show much more power this year. Getting Cuddyer back is one reason, adding Joe Crede is another. A full season for players like Denard Span and Alexi Casilla should help their numbers. Getting better/older/wiser should mean improvements for Carlos Gomez and Delmon Young. Getting LASIK-eye surgery and talking to Harmon Killebrew should hopefully lead to improved totals for Justin Morneau(not to mention better protection for him in the lineup.)

Here is my predicted home run totals for the Twins:
Justin Morneau - 34
Jason Kubel - 30
Joe Crede - 24
Michael Cuddyer - 22
Delmon Young - 21
Carlos Gomez - 16
Denard Span - 13
Alexi Casilla - 12
Joe Mauer - 12 (If Mauer hit for 25-30 HR a year, he'd be the best catcher in history)
Brendan Harris - 6
Brian Buscher - 6
Nick Punto - 2
Mike Redmond - 0

Chances are at the end of the season, I'll look silly for those predictions. The Twins never hit for that much power. But this year just feels a little different...

Why the Minnesota Twins will be the 2009 AL Central Champs

I could write about how bad the Jazz will be while Boozer and Kirilenko are out, but I don't want to write it and you don't want to read it. All these injuries that the Jazz are having is making me look forward to baseball opening day even more.

You can bet that there will be much more Twins player-by-player analysis/projections/outlooks on this blog as opening day approaches. For now we will take a quick glance at why the Twins have as good a shot as anybody to win the AL Central this year.

1. They won't have any innings pitched by Livan Hernandez. Those innings will be taken over by a full season of a healthy, confident Francisco Liriano, who looks to win his first AL Cy Young. The rest of the young rotation stays the same, a rotation that was responsible for much of the 2008 success.

2. No at-bats from Craig Monroe, Mike Lamb, or Adam Everett. Those guys were black-holes last season. The Twins haven't signed a big bat, but Jason Kubel, Brian Buscher, and Brendan Harris will likely put up better numbers than those other three did last year.

3. The bullpen should be better this year. Again they haven't brought anybody new, but Jose Mijares should take over the 8th inning role nicely, setting up for one of the best closers in the game, Joe Nathan. Jesse Crain is one more year removed from that cuff surgery and he should be better, and Boof Bonser could be a force in the bullpen now that he is getting adjusted to not starting.

4. They will have a full season from Michael Cuddyer and Denard Span. Span was a key cog for the 2nd half of 2008. Cuddyer was the valuable cleanup hitter for the great 2006 year.

5. Delmon Young and Carlos Gomez will be one year older and wiser too. These guys were two of the youngest players in the majors last year. Young especially should be much better this year. They will only get better with time, and could turn into big-time stars.

6. Out of the other competetors only the Indians got better. The White Sox traded or didn't resign a lot of key guys from their team. The Tigers are old. The Indians won't have Sabathia this year, Cliff Lee won't repeat the success he had from last season, they did sign and trade for guys like DeRosa and Kerry Wood, but they lost others like Casey Blake.

7. They re-signed Nick Punto. Ok that one is a joke. But the Twins are so young, and most these guys will get better. Not too many of them have hit their prime yet. It should be an exciting season, as long as injuries don't ravage them. But a blow to Joe Mauer, or Justin Morneau, or a couple of staff members like Kevin Slowey and Scott Baker and all bets are off. I hope I didn't just jinx them.

Projected 2009 value of Twins roster

It looks like the Twins are content to go into 2009 with virtually the same team that they had in 2008. I can't necessarily disagree with the decision. Bill Smith has not shown to have much talent in signing free-agents or making good trades. In his first year at the helm he signed Mike Lamb, Adam Everett, and Livan Hernandez, and traded for Craig Monroe, Delmon Young, Brendan Harris, and Carlos Gomez, while giving up Johan Santana, Matt Garza, and Jason Bartlett. It is not crazy to think that the Twins would have made the World Series if he hadn't made those moves. The Twins clear strength is in drafting/developing players, especially pitching, and trading for other teams minor-leaguers such as Santana, Liriano, Bartlett, Casilla, etc.

Also it seems that the Twins would like to improve at 3B or SS or their bullpen but teams asking prices have been too high. Would you give up Denard Span and Kevin Slowey plus a good prospect just for Rockies 3B Garrett Atkins? I wouldn't. Would you give up Francisco Liriano and Delmon Young for one year of Mariners 3B Adrian Beltre? I wouldn't. It seems the Twins have been looking for help, but the other teams want a ridiculous amount of talent from the Twins. And remember the Twins have one of the youngest teams in the majors. Think about all the young stars that emerged last season. The future is bright and without further ado I'd like to rank from most valuable to least valuable I think each player will be to the Twins in 2009, the final year of the Metrodome.

Joe Mauer
Francisco Liriano
Justin Morneau
Scott Baker
Joe Nathan
Kevin Slowey
Denard Span
Delmon Young
Jason Kubel
Nick Blackburn
Michael Cuddyer
Glen Perkins
Jose Mijares
Carlos Gomez
Boof Bonser
Brendan Harris
Nick Punto
Brian Buscher
Craig Breslow
Jesse Crain
Mike Redmond
Matt Guerrier
Matt Tolbert
Jason Pridie
Phil Humber

Baseball Winter Meetings 2008

This week is when all the baseball GM's meet for a week and discuss trades and such. This year it is being held in Las Vegas. This is perhaps the busiest week during the offseason and definitely the one that spawns the most rumors. Which means I am constantly refresing my RSS feeds to get the lastest updates.

Here is some rumors from the start of day 1:

-Add Miguel Tejada to the list of players the Twins might try to trade for.

-Add the Phillies to the growing list of teams who want Delmon Young. The Twins would want someone like top prospect Jason Donald in return.

-A Seattle writer thinks perhaps Beltre's price tag has gone down. Something more like Cuddyer plus a good pitching prospect or two. I wouldn't mind that deal.


A lot of things get tossed out there as possibilities but most of it will never actually happen. But I think this year the Twins are out to get something big done, so it will be interesting to follow the Twins rumors.

Boneheaded Gardy

I can never decide if I like Ron Gardenhire or not. He seems to get a lot out of his players (see 2008) but some of his lineup choices are maddening. I don't know what a player does to do to get on his good or bad side. Matt Garza was on his bad side and the Twins shipped him off to the Rays, where he is starting to look mighty good. Nick Punto is perhaps his favorite player ever and Gardenhire gave him way too many at-bats in 2007 and Punto posted some of the worst offensive numbers of all-time. Now it appears Delmon Young is on Gardy's bad side as well.

On Wednesday in Fargo, Twins manager Ron Gardenhire said the team's three starting outfielders should be Denard Span, Carlos Gomez and Michael Cuddyer.

"Those three guys have to play every day," Gardenhire told the Fargo Forum after speaking at a farm trade show. "Delmon is in the mix. He's a heck of a player, a heck of a talent. But to me, those three guys should be your outfield and then you go from there."

The Twins have been reportadly trying to see what kind of value they could get for Delmon this offseason. Looks like Gardenhire might be the one pushing for him to be traded. I thought he had a great season last year for a 22 year old. Remember this guy has all the talent in the world. But if you are trying to trade him, saying he wouldn't start over Cuddyer or Gomez does not increase his trade value! If I were Bill Smith I would make Gardy be quiet for the rest of the offseason.

There might be 2 shortstops I would trade Young for: JJ Hardy and Yunel Escobar. And I would hesitate before pulling the trigger on that one.

In other Twins news, it looks like it is down to the Twins and Dodgers in the running for 3B Casey Blake. If either team offers one more year or more money to their current offers, Blake will sign with them. I will not complain about signing Blake, especially if it is just a 2 year deal. He is 35, but could be our best 3B since Koskie. Plus we wouldn't give anything up for Blake, since he is a free-agent. That way we could have all our trade bait still available to fill the much larger SS hole with something besides Gardy's favorite player ever, Nick Punto.

Garza for Young revisited

Matt Garza pitched a gem last night, putting the Rays in the World Series for the first time ever.
Twins fans will remember that Matt Garza was drafted, developed, and brought to the major leagues by the Minnesota Twins. In the offseason he was part of a trade that sent him to Tampa in exchange for Delmon Young and others. Delmon Young was rated the top prospect in all of baseball in 2006 and he was the #1 overall pick in the draft as well. He disappointed some with his 2008 campaign. I say to his critics: he was only 22, and those are pretty good numbers for a 22 year old. They were better numbers than Kirby Puckett's at his age.

And usually #1 prospects in all of baseball turn out to be star players. A look at some of the past Basball American top prospects:
2007: Dice K Matsuzaka
2006: Delmon Young
2005:Joe Mauer
2004:Joe Mauer
2003:Mark Teixiera
2002:Josh Beckett
2001:Josh Hamilton
and the list goes on. Come on, Dice K is the worst name on that list and lots of teams would love to have him. Garza is a great talent but if Young lives up to his potential, which he still will have lots of time to do, than the Twins will end up getting the better end of the deal. I remember lots of people complained about Mauer and Morneau's early major league careers. Morneau didn't have amazing numbers until mid-2006, even though he had been in the majors since around 2004.

Repeat: Delmon Young is a special talent and the Twins would be stupid to give up on him so early by trading him away.

First Look at the Twins offseason

Perhaps the biggest lesson the Twins learned from 2008: they can contend, even though they lost Santana and Hunter, and they can contend now. Just two more runs and they would have made the playoffs. Clearly the team isn't needing a big overhaul like last offseason. I'm sure they will make some moves this offseason as usual. We will explore what possible moves they might make, and we will discuss the moves when they make them.

First lets explore where the Twins currently stand:

Catcher - Joe Mauer is the best catcher in the game. He just won his 2nd batting title in 3 years and might win his first gold glove this offseason. The only think he could possibly improve on is HR power. Mike Redmond is a great backup. The Twins will pick up Mike Redmond's option for 2009. They are set at catcher.

First Base - Justin Morneau is solid all around like Joe Mauer. He played all 162 games this season and will likely finish 2nd in the MVP voting. He is locked up on a bargain contract through 2013. He doesn't really need a backup, although I've heard rumors that Jason Kubel is learning 1B so Morneau can DH when he needs a break.

Second Base - Alexi Casilla was a very pleasant surprise for the Twins in 2008. He'll be the #2 hitter in the lineup for a long time.

Shortstop - Now the Twins start to see some problems. Nick Punto is a free agent. I am hoping they don't resign him. Ron Gardenhire love Nick Punto like his own son. Ok he was alright in 2008 but he had one of the worst seasons ever in 2007. The Twins need a new SS. Casilla can play SS or 2B so look for them to fill one of those holes.

Third Base - Brian Buscher was solid in 2008, he hit around .300 and had he played the whole season he would have been on pace for 100 RBI. For some reason the Twins aren't sold on him. They do have 2 or 3 decent options in the minors that we will explore another day, but I wouldn't be surprised if they traded for someone like Adrian Beltre. Another big question mark.

Left Field - Delmon Young disappointed some with his .290, 10 HR campaign in 2008. I have one word for all those who think he should be traded: 22. Yes he is just 22 and very young. This guy was the top prospect in all of baseball 2 years ago when he was called up by the Rays! He was the #1 overall pick like Joe Mauer was! You don't give up on a guy like that. I remember Mauer and Morneau were a little underwhelming their first year in the majors as well. This guy is going to be a beast in the lineup. You don't give up on him early like the Twins did with David Ortiz.

Center Field - Carlos Gomez. See above. Disappointing year, but he is just 22 and has all the talent in the world. Fastest player in baseball, best defensive CF in baseball, you stick with him. He will get better exponentially.

Right Field - Denard Span. Span was the biggest, and most pleasant surprise of 2008. He took over the leadoff spot and was 2nd on the Twins in on-base percentage. He is a centerfielder so he covers right field as well as anybody. You also have Michael Cuddyer who was injured in 2008 but was signed to a big 3 year deal.

Designated Hitter - Jason Kubel. Was second on the team in HR with 20. Has a good bat.

Starting pitchers - Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, and Kevin Slowey are going to form the top of the rotation for a long time. Expect the Twins to lock them up to long term deals. Blackburn and Perkins are solid as well but they can be replaced by the Twins pitching depth.

Relief Pitchers - Getting Pat Neshek back will be huge in 2009. Losing Neshek cost the Twins the playoffs in 2008. Jose Mijares was called up in September and was lights out. Look for Mijares in the 7th, Neshek in the 8th, and Nathan in the 9th. Guerrier and Crain just need some rest. Craig Breslow was a good addition as well. Dennys Reyes will be a free agent, and probably let go with the emergence of Breslow and Mijares. Phil Humber and Boof Bonser also figure into the pitching plan somewhere.



SUMMARY
Positions Set: C, 1B, one of 2B/SS, LF, CF, RF, DH, SP, RP.
Holes to fill: one of 2B/SS, 3B, maybe another reliever.
Surpluss players: One of Span/Young/Gomez/Cuddyer/Kubel. Blackburn, Perkins, Bonser, Humber.
Players likely gone: Nick Punto, Dennys Reyes
Estimated payroll: $49 million
Payroll room: up to $35 million (yes the Twins could actually go sign a big free agent or two, or make a big trade)


The biggest question is what to do with Span/Young/Gomez/Cuddyer/Kubel. 5 excellent players, with only 4 positions (LF/CF/RF/DH) to fill. Who do you make as trade bait? Cuddyer is my choice, but he is likely the least attractive.


In future posts we will discuss what to do with the surpluss of pitching and outfielders, what prospects could help in 2009 like Span, Casilla, Buscher, Blackburn, Slowey, Perkins, and Mijares did in 2008, a new top 20 Twins prospect list, potential trade targets, and potential free agents to be signed.

Superstitions

Sometimes I hate watching sporting events because I am so superstitious. I always end up blaming myself if the team loses. Maybe one night I'll sit with my arms folded, and them someone will do something good. But then all of a sudden that sitting position doesn't help the team. Or if I stop watching the game all of a sudden my team does good. I know I'm not the only person who is like this but I hate it especially on nights like tonight. Because of course I have no control over what happens during the game. I wonder why some people like myself think we do...

Man it would be nice if the Twins had someone with home run power. It feels like the Sox whole lineup has more HR's than Morneau. Kubel is the only other Twin in the 20's HR and Young is next with only 10. And somehow the Twins managed to score the 3rd most runs in franchise history but it is nights like tonight where it sure would have been nice to have a few big bats in the lineup. Hopefully with the new satdium team management will be able to spend some $$ on good free agents and if they do that then this team will become a real juggernaut. The season was great but boy the last month was terrible!! Thanks for the memories 2008 Twins.

Barry Bonds to the Minnesota Twins

Everyone this season was saying how the Twins finally fixed their hitting but their pitching wasn't going to be good enough with the losses of Santana, Silva, and Garza. Well so far (it is still early) the Twins have the worst offense in the AL. Ok Detroit is the only team that has scored fewer runs, they only have 15, while the Twins have 23. But Detroit should have the best offense in the AL. And as for catching other teams offensively it doesn't look good. The next two teams up the ladder are Boston and the Yankees, the two other offensive powerhouses in the AL. The Twins only have 3 HR the whole year, 2 by Morneau. Torii Hunter alone has out-homered the Twins 4-3. I just don't know if the Twins hitters will be able to do much this year. I thought they looked alright on paper, at least comapred to last year. But if Delmon Young and Joe Mauer still aren't developing 20 HR power, only Morneau is a guarantee to hit over 20 HR. I guess Kubel, Lamb, Cuddyer, and Monroe, even Gomez in the future could reach that. But it just might not be this year. We're only 7 games into the season so it is a bit to early to start panicking, but it sure would have been nice to start the season out on top of the ladder rather than on bottom.

The only solution I see is to sign Barry Bonds. Bonds would solve so many of the Twins problems. He could still be one of the best if not the best hitter in the game. He would boost two Twins totals that are terrible, namely home runs and on-base percentage. Don't tell me the Twins don't have the money, they just lost Silva and Santana and Hunter who ate up most the payroll. Barry could also help out the young hitters with their stroke, like Young and Gomez. Make it happen Bill Smith!

Cuddyer on the DL

Michael Cuddyer was injured in last night's victory. The Twins placed him on the DL and called up Denard Span to replace him. It is tough to lose your #3 hitter, but Delmon Young should be hitting third and now he will probably get his chance. Plus this means that Jason Kubel, arguably the Twins best hitter(that is another post for another time) will be playing everyday. So actually this just might jumpstat the Twins offense.

And how about Gomez! 3 hits last night, he is hitting .450 and leading the majors with 4 steals.

Looking at the Johan Santana Trade: Carlos Gomez

Carlos Gomez
Center Field
Born: 12/85
Bats: Right

YEAR LV PA AVG OBP SLG HR XBH BB SO
2005 A- 539 .275 .331 .376 8 27 32 88
2006 AA 486 .281 .350 .423 7 39 27 97
2007 AAA 157 .286 .363 .414 2 12 15 23
MLB 139 .232 .288 .304 2 5 8 27

Carlos Gomez was signed out of the Dominican Republic as a 16-year-old in 2002. Last year he was the NL’s youngest player. He struggled, hitting just .232 with an on-base percentage of .288 and a slugging percentage of .304 in 58 games, and missed about two months with a broken left hand. Those numbers shouldn’t be too concerning as he was just 21.

In 156 games between Double-A and Triple-A, Gomez hit .282 with a .354 on-base percentage and a slugging percentage of .421 with nine homers, 51 total extra-base hits, 58 steals, and a 120-to-42 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Those are great numbers for someone his age playing at such a high level. His biggest weakness is that he lacks plate discipline. Gomez has more power potential than most speedy players. If Gomez can hit for power and average he will be a tremendous player because he is the fastest player in baseball.

Gomez also is an excellent defensive center fielder. He has great range and a tremendous arm. The Twins will have the best outfield arms in the majors with him, Delmon Young, and Michael Cuddyer. Gomez could quickly make fans forget about Torii Hunter but he likely won’t be amazing this year, and could use a few more months in AAA.