Projected 2009 value of Twins roster

It looks like the Twins are content to go into 2009 with virtually the same team that they had in 2008. I can't necessarily disagree with the decision. Bill Smith has not shown to have much talent in signing free-agents or making good trades. In his first year at the helm he signed Mike Lamb, Adam Everett, and Livan Hernandez, and traded for Craig Monroe, Delmon Young, Brendan Harris, and Carlos Gomez, while giving up Johan Santana, Matt Garza, and Jason Bartlett. It is not crazy to think that the Twins would have made the World Series if he hadn't made those moves. The Twins clear strength is in drafting/developing players, especially pitching, and trading for other teams minor-leaguers such as Santana, Liriano, Bartlett, Casilla, etc.

Also it seems that the Twins would like to improve at 3B or SS or their bullpen but teams asking prices have been too high. Would you give up Denard Span and Kevin Slowey plus a good prospect just for Rockies 3B Garrett Atkins? I wouldn't. Would you give up Francisco Liriano and Delmon Young for one year of Mariners 3B Adrian Beltre? I wouldn't. It seems the Twins have been looking for help, but the other teams want a ridiculous amount of talent from the Twins. And remember the Twins have one of the youngest teams in the majors. Think about all the young stars that emerged last season. The future is bright and without further ado I'd like to rank from most valuable to least valuable I think each player will be to the Twins in 2009, the final year of the Metrodome.

Joe Mauer
Francisco Liriano
Justin Morneau
Scott Baker
Joe Nathan
Kevin Slowey
Denard Span
Delmon Young
Jason Kubel
Nick Blackburn
Michael Cuddyer
Glen Perkins
Jose Mijares
Carlos Gomez
Boof Bonser
Brendan Harris
Nick Punto
Brian Buscher
Craig Breslow
Jesse Crain
Mike Redmond
Matt Guerrier
Matt Tolbert
Jason Pridie
Phil Humber

First Look at the Twins offseason

Perhaps the biggest lesson the Twins learned from 2008: they can contend, even though they lost Santana and Hunter, and they can contend now. Just two more runs and they would have made the playoffs. Clearly the team isn't needing a big overhaul like last offseason. I'm sure they will make some moves this offseason as usual. We will explore what possible moves they might make, and we will discuss the moves when they make them.

First lets explore where the Twins currently stand:

Catcher - Joe Mauer is the best catcher in the game. He just won his 2nd batting title in 3 years and might win his first gold glove this offseason. The only think he could possibly improve on is HR power. Mike Redmond is a great backup. The Twins will pick up Mike Redmond's option for 2009. They are set at catcher.

First Base - Justin Morneau is solid all around like Joe Mauer. He played all 162 games this season and will likely finish 2nd in the MVP voting. He is locked up on a bargain contract through 2013. He doesn't really need a backup, although I've heard rumors that Jason Kubel is learning 1B so Morneau can DH when he needs a break.

Second Base - Alexi Casilla was a very pleasant surprise for the Twins in 2008. He'll be the #2 hitter in the lineup for a long time.

Shortstop - Now the Twins start to see some problems. Nick Punto is a free agent. I am hoping they don't resign him. Ron Gardenhire love Nick Punto like his own son. Ok he was alright in 2008 but he had one of the worst seasons ever in 2007. The Twins need a new SS. Casilla can play SS or 2B so look for them to fill one of those holes.

Third Base - Brian Buscher was solid in 2008, he hit around .300 and had he played the whole season he would have been on pace for 100 RBI. For some reason the Twins aren't sold on him. They do have 2 or 3 decent options in the minors that we will explore another day, but I wouldn't be surprised if they traded for someone like Adrian Beltre. Another big question mark.

Left Field - Delmon Young disappointed some with his .290, 10 HR campaign in 2008. I have one word for all those who think he should be traded: 22. Yes he is just 22 and very young. This guy was the top prospect in all of baseball 2 years ago when he was called up by the Rays! He was the #1 overall pick like Joe Mauer was! You don't give up on a guy like that. I remember Mauer and Morneau were a little underwhelming their first year in the majors as well. This guy is going to be a beast in the lineup. You don't give up on him early like the Twins did with David Ortiz.

Center Field - Carlos Gomez. See above. Disappointing year, but he is just 22 and has all the talent in the world. Fastest player in baseball, best defensive CF in baseball, you stick with him. He will get better exponentially.

Right Field - Denard Span. Span was the biggest, and most pleasant surprise of 2008. He took over the leadoff spot and was 2nd on the Twins in on-base percentage. He is a centerfielder so he covers right field as well as anybody. You also have Michael Cuddyer who was injured in 2008 but was signed to a big 3 year deal.

Designated Hitter - Jason Kubel. Was second on the team in HR with 20. Has a good bat.

Starting pitchers - Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, and Kevin Slowey are going to form the top of the rotation for a long time. Expect the Twins to lock them up to long term deals. Blackburn and Perkins are solid as well but they can be replaced by the Twins pitching depth.

Relief Pitchers - Getting Pat Neshek back will be huge in 2009. Losing Neshek cost the Twins the playoffs in 2008. Jose Mijares was called up in September and was lights out. Look for Mijares in the 7th, Neshek in the 8th, and Nathan in the 9th. Guerrier and Crain just need some rest. Craig Breslow was a good addition as well. Dennys Reyes will be a free agent, and probably let go with the emergence of Breslow and Mijares. Phil Humber and Boof Bonser also figure into the pitching plan somewhere.



SUMMARY
Positions Set: C, 1B, one of 2B/SS, LF, CF, RF, DH, SP, RP.
Holes to fill: one of 2B/SS, 3B, maybe another reliever.
Surpluss players: One of Span/Young/Gomez/Cuddyer/Kubel. Blackburn, Perkins, Bonser, Humber.
Players likely gone: Nick Punto, Dennys Reyes
Estimated payroll: $49 million
Payroll room: up to $35 million (yes the Twins could actually go sign a big free agent or two, or make a big trade)


The biggest question is what to do with Span/Young/Gomez/Cuddyer/Kubel. 5 excellent players, with only 4 positions (LF/CF/RF/DH) to fill. Who do you make as trade bait? Cuddyer is my choice, but he is likely the least attractive.


In future posts we will discuss what to do with the surpluss of pitching and outfielders, what prospects could help in 2009 like Span, Casilla, Buscher, Blackburn, Slowey, Perkins, and Mijares did in 2008, a new top 20 Twins prospect list, potential trade targets, and potential free agents to be signed.

The Life of a Twins fan

Being a Twins fan definitely has it's ups and downs. It seems like the GM or Ron Gardenhire is like an idiot one moment and a genius the next. Here are just a few moments of countless memories over the past few years that make me love or be frustrated with the Twins.

Frustrating:
1. 2008 - Having your best pitcher dominate in AAA (Liriano) while you have the likes of Livan Hernandez in the rotation. How is it possible the Twins don't have room for this kid?
2. 2007 - Playing Nick Punto everyday. In 2007 he put up some of the most atrocious numbers for an everyday player in MLB history. I think Ron Gardenhire likes Punto so much because Punto reminds Gardenhire of the player he once was, a decent glove, terrible batting infielder.
3. 2006 - The first time in 20 years the Twins have a player hit more than 30 HR's (Morneau and Hunter both reach the mark.) Why do the Twins frown on hitting home runs? Even David Ortiz didn't hit 30 HR's while with the Twins.
4. Being infatuated with old veterans and start them over good young players, while giving them way too much money. Examples are not limited but include Livan Hernandez, Rondell (RonDL) White, Juan Castro, Tony Batista, Sidney Ponson, Brett Boone, Phil Nevin, Ramon Ortiz, Henry Blanco, Mike Lamb, Adam Everett. Wow I think I just threw up in my mouth.
5. Never making a trade for a proven big-time player or signing a big-time free agent. I guess the Twins have made some great trades, but never for someone like a Carlos Beltran, a Miguel Tejada, a Adrian Beltre. And who was the last big-time free agent the Twins signed?



Exhilarating:
1. 2008 - Having nobody think the Twins will do anything worth of note, and then have them be near the top of the division for the season with an excellent chance to make the postseason. Oh and scoring more runs so far than good-hitting teams like the Yankees and White Sox and Tigers.
2. 2007 - Ok there was nothing too exhilarating about last year.
3. 2006 - The only thing that didn't happen was a championship. Morneau - MVP, Mauer - batting title, Santana - Cy Young, Liriano - emerges. And a comeback for the ages.
4. 2004 - The greatest trade ever. The Twins trade clubhouse cancer AJ Pierzynski to the Giants for Francisco Liriano, Joe Nathan, and Boof Bonser. Pierzynski leaves the Giants the next year while the Twins get the best young pitcher in baseball who looks like the 2nd coming of Santana and the best closer in baseball over the past 4 years. And the called up some kid named Joe Mauer to take over catching duties.
5. Justin Morneau winning the home run derby. The victory for Morneau kind of epitomizes the whole existence of the Minnesota Twins. Everyone said that he wouldn't win it, he did win it by doing just enough and hitting at the right times, and when it was over people mispronounced his name and said that he didn't deserve it and that his victory would never be remembered. Poor Twinkies.

Barry Bonds to the Minnesota Twins

Everyone this season was saying how the Twins finally fixed their hitting but their pitching wasn't going to be good enough with the losses of Santana, Silva, and Garza. Well so far (it is still early) the Twins have the worst offense in the AL. Ok Detroit is the only team that has scored fewer runs, they only have 15, while the Twins have 23. But Detroit should have the best offense in the AL. And as for catching other teams offensively it doesn't look good. The next two teams up the ladder are Boston and the Yankees, the two other offensive powerhouses in the AL. The Twins only have 3 HR the whole year, 2 by Morneau. Torii Hunter alone has out-homered the Twins 4-3. I just don't know if the Twins hitters will be able to do much this year. I thought they looked alright on paper, at least comapred to last year. But if Delmon Young and Joe Mauer still aren't developing 20 HR power, only Morneau is a guarantee to hit over 20 HR. I guess Kubel, Lamb, Cuddyer, and Monroe, even Gomez in the future could reach that. But it just might not be this year. We're only 7 games into the season so it is a bit to early to start panicking, but it sure would have been nice to start the season out on top of the ladder rather than on bottom.

The only solution I see is to sign Barry Bonds. Bonds would solve so many of the Twins problems. He could still be one of the best if not the best hitter in the game. He would boost two Twins totals that are terrible, namely home runs and on-base percentage. Don't tell me the Twins don't have the money, they just lost Silva and Santana and Hunter who ate up most the payroll. Barry could also help out the young hitters with their stroke, like Young and Gomez. Make it happen Bill Smith!

What to do with Joe Nathan

The save statistic is one of the worst statistics in baseball, up there with a win or loss for a pitcher, batting average, errors, and RBI. But that is another topic for another day. Today we’ll be examining Joe Nathan.

Lets look at a better statistic. It is called Win Probability Added (WPA). It measures how much a player does to help his team win games. It comes from a list of probabilities from 30 years of MLB history. All situations are listed with a percentage of times that their team in that situation won. Example: if a team goes into the bottom of the eighth down a run they only have a 23% chance to win. So each player earns points by how much they help their team. If you are the leadoff batter and you get on base your team now has 31% chance to win. The batter gets 8 points difference and the opposing pitcher gets -8 points. Lets say the next batter hits into a double play then all of a sudden the team’s chances drop to 13% and he gets -18 points, while the pitcher gets 18 points.

So the leader in WPA over the last four years has been Joe Nathan. Yup he ranks higher than Johan Santana, Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, and Michael Cuddyer. He ranks higher because as the game ends every at-bat because a lot more valuable. Every time he goes in and gets a save he gets 13 points. 13% of the time a pitcher fails to do that. Nathan earns all those points because if he blows the lead then he loses about 87 points, and that will wipe out a lot of good innings.

Maybe we haven’t realized just how good Joe Nathan has been. Over the last four years he’s been the best closer in Twins history. He’s been in the all-star game, he’s finished in the top 5 of the Cy Young twice. He’s gone 19-8, with an ERA of 1.62, 2.70, 1.58 and 1.88 over those four years. And he’s accumulated 160 saves. Basically he’s been the best closer in baseball over the past 4 years.

The problem is that the closer market has gone crazy last year. Nathan is in his last year of the current contract with the Twins and he can test the market next year. So the Twins have a few options. They could sign him to a long term deal now, they can trade him now, they can trade him at the trade deadline, or they can let him walk after this season. Judging by the current contracts given to closers like a $46 million 4 year contract to Francisco Corder or even Eric Gagne earning $10 million this year, Nathan could command a lot more than that. The Twins could afford it, but I don’t think it is wise as they are not huge contenders right now and they shouldn’t pay $17 million a year for someone who pitches 70 innings a year. My pick is to trade him at the trade deadline to a team who is desperate for a top of the line closer and get two top prospects in return. It just wouldn’t be wise for a low budget team that is trying to be contenders in 2010 to pay that amount of money to a closer, especially when the Twins are excellent at making a top-notch bullpen. Pat Neshek would be an excellent closer should the Twins decide to part with Nathan.

Looking at the Johan Santana Trade: Deolis Guerra

Deolis Guerra
Starter
Born: 4/89
Throws: Right

YEAR LV G GS ERA IP H HR SO BB
2006 A- 17 17 2.20 81.2 59 3 64 37
2007 A+ 21 20 4.01 89.2 80 9 66 25

Deolis Guerra was signed out of Venezuela for a $700,000 bonus as a 16-year-old in 2005. He is a stocky, 6-foot-5 right-hander who wont be 21 until the middle of 2010. He had his debut shortly after his 17th birthday and started his first game at high Single-A last season before turning 18. He was the lone teenage pitcher in the entire league and the average hitter he faced was 23 years old. His numbers plus the age difference is very impressive.

Since his 2006 debut, Guerra has a 3.27 ERA, 135-to-65 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and a .228 opponent's batting average in 178.2 innings. Those numbers are fantastic for someone who's faced advanced competition at such a young age. It is very understandable why the Twins wanted him as one of the centerpieces in the Johan Santana trade.

Guerra can throw in the mid-90s. and being so large and young he should be able to develop a big-time fastball. Guerra's changeup is reportedly his best pitch. Guerra has the highest ceiling as anyone in the Twins system. He could end up the Santana trade look great if he turns out the way people think he might. But young pitchers face numerous obstacles and are far from a sure thing. If Guerra turns out to be nothing then more pressure is on Carlos Gomez and one of Kevin Mulvey or Philip Humber to meet expectations for the Twins to have received a good haul in the Santana trade.

Return of Liriano

Today, Francisco Liriano pitched in his first game since 2006. He pitched 1.2 innings, gave up 2 hits and one walk and struck out Manny Ramirez. He was only throwing 90 MHP. He was limited to a pitch count of 40, hence being taken out after only 1.2 innings. It was a very successful debut. The goal was to get Liriano in a game situation, face MLB hitters, and most importantly, stay healthy. He did all of the above while not giving up any runs. You will be hearing a lot about Francisco Liriano on this blog. He is my favorite player, due to many reasons. He was the best pitcher in baseball when he was healthy in 2006, even better than Johan Santana. And he is from San Cristobal, Dominican Republic, a city I lived in for almost five months in 2006. He is a big hero in the DR. When I was there every game he pitched in was on national TV. He now has a couple of fellow Dominicans on the team with speedsters Carlos Gomez and Alexi Casilla.

If Liriano can return to form, he will more make up for the loss of Santana. Here’s why: Liriano is very similar to Santana. Santana has the games best changeup, but the Twins pitching coach said that Liriano’s is very similar to Santana’s. But the thing that makes Liriano better is his slider, which everyone says is the best slider they’ve ever seen. A Twin and an ex-Twin agree. Joe Mauer says Liriano has the best stuff he’s ever caught, and Hunter says if he had to chose between Liriano and Santana (assuming they were the same age) he would take Liriano because he has all the nasty pitches Santana has, but he also has the best slider in baseball.

Looking at the Johan Santana trade: Philip Humber

Philip Humber
Starting Pitcher
Throws: Right
Age: 25

YEAR Level G GS ERA IP H HR SO BB
2005 A+ 14 14 4.99 70.1 74 6 65 18
2006 A+ 7 7 2.37 38.0 24 4 36 9
AA 6 6 2.88 34.1 25 4 36 10
2007 AAA 25 25 4.27 139.0 129 21 120 44

Humber was selected by the Mets with the third overall pick in the 2004 draft. Humber pitched just 15 starts into his pro career when he suffered a major arm injury, so he had to have Tommy John elbow surgery in mid-2005.

He pitched again the next year, he had a 2.83 ERA, 79-to-20 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and .199 opponent's batting average in 76.1 innings between high Single-A and Double-A. The problem was that his fastball lost a lot of it’s velocity and it hurt him a lot the next year. Humber had a 4.27 ERA in 25 starts at Triple-A, striking out just 120 batters in 139 innings while giving up 21 homers.

It seems that Humber will be a mid-rotation starter, not the ace the Mets thought they were drafting. He has an excellent curveball but his fastball no longer overpowers hitters. Humber was one of four players the Twins received for Santana, although he was once considered untouchable. His stock has fallen, and I doubt he could end up being the ace everyone thought he could be. In fact he might end up in the bullpen if he doesn’t pan out as a starter, since the Twins have tons of pitching prospects who should be ready soon. But being in the bullpen he still could be valuable, and the Twins always produce one of the best bullpens in the majors. So Humber might be the least valuable player the Twins received in the Santana trade. Had they made this trade two or three years ago he would have been the best player in the package but his stock has dropped a bit.

Looking at the Johan Santana trade: Kevin Mulvey

Kevin Mulvey
Starting Pitcher
Throws: Right
Age: 22

YEAR Level G GS ERA IP H HR SO BB
2007 AA 26 26 3.32 151.2 145 4 110 43

Mulvey was selected by the Mets in the second round of the 2006 draft, Mulvey went right to Double-A after signing with the Mets and had a 1.35 ERA in three starts. Last year in AA, Mulvey had a 3.32 ERA and 110-to-43 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 151.2 innings. Mulvey was chosen as the Mets organization’s Minor League Pitcher of the Year.

He should be ready to join the Twins this year. He projects to be a mid-rotation starter, although he doesn’t have great strikeout totals. He keeps the ball in the park, hitters only have hit five homers off of him in 173 innings. Mulvey is very effective against right-handed batters, they only hit .224 off of him with a .275 slugging % and 274 OPS.

I like Mulvey a lot. He is probably the most overlooked player received in exchange for Johan Santana. Phil Humber has the biggest name, Deolis Guerra has the most upside, but Mulvey might end up being the best pitcher that the Twins received in exchange for Johan Santana. He could fill the #3 or #4 slot in the rotation for a while.

Spring Training and 2008

The Twins started spring training yesterday. They lost 6-1 to the Reds, but hey it is just spring training. Francisco Liriano finally arrived to camp on Wednesday as well. It makes one wonder how the Twins would have done in 2007 (and for the playoffs in 2006) with a healthy Liriano. Boy am I excited to watch him this year. He is my current favorite athlete, right in front of Deron Williams. The Twins had a very disappointing season last year, especially considering how they had the Cy Young winner, the MVP, the batting champ, the best closer in the game, one of the best center fielders in the game. But other than that they didn’t have a lot. And the stars all had down years except for Hunter. So there is reason to believe that they will be better in 2008 than in 2007, despite the losses of Santana, Hunter, and Silva. Here are five players that will have a better year than last.



Jason Kubel - he will finally have his breakout season. He was once regarded about as high of a prospect as Mauer and Morneau. He should cement himself as the Twins DH for the long term.

Joe Mauer - he wasn’t at full strength last year, look for him to improve power numbers to 15-20 HR and be in the thick of the batting title race.

Boof Bonser - was great towards the end of 2006. He then put on a lot of weight and had a lot of problems in 2007. He dropped 25 pounds in the offseason and he should be better in 2008.

Justin Morneau - the 2006 AL MVP had a great first half of 2007. He slumped big time in the second half, after having a few injuries. Look for him to put up numbers similar to his 2006 season.

Dennys Reyes - The dude was unhittable in 2006 but had a terrible 2007. For some reason he is great one year, terrible the next, great the next, then terrible. 2008 lands on the good year of his crazy cycle of success.

The Good Doctor and Cuddyer

If you had told a Twins fan that the Minnesota Twins had signed a player to a 6 year deal today you would have thought that they were talking about Johan Santana. The Santana question still goes on but today the Twins signed 1B Justin Morneau and RF Michael Cuddyer to 2 big contracts. Morneau's is worth 6 years and $80 million. I am happy about these signings because it shows that the Twins still want to compete. They had just been granted a new ballpark that will open in 2010, and then ownership lets Torii Hunter and Carlos Silva leave, and prepared to trade away the best pitcher in the game, Johan Santana. But now they have signed the 2006 MVP in Justin Morneau and the best right field arm in Michael Cuddyer. Both are homegrown talent and it is nice to see the Twins hold on to them. They signed Joe Mauer to a 4 year deal last year. Now can the Twins resign Santana after showing that they still want to compete now, or will they trade him away? I say at this point keep him, and try to sign him. With Francisco Liriano coming back, Santana/Liriano forms the best 1-2 punch in the game. Here is the potential opening day lineup:

CF Kenny Lofton
DH Jason Kubel
C Joe Mauer
LF Delmon Young
1B Justin Morneau
RF Michael Cuddyer
3B Michael Lamb
2B Brendan Harris
SS Adam Everett

SP Johan Santana
SP Francisco Liriano
SP Scott Baker
SP Boof Bonser
SP Kevin Slowey

Looks pretty solid to me, a team that could definitely make the playoffs.