Swarzaked

Anthony Swarzak pitched a great major league debut for the Twins. I'll take 7 innings and 0 runs anytime. Swarzak is the first Twin pitcher in history to pitch 7 shutout innings in their first major league start. That is very impressive. I'm sure he won't be in the rotation when Perkins returns, but he might be sent to the bullpen. It is nice knowing that there is another quality young starting pitcher available if needed. I wonder if the Twins would ever trade one of their young starting pitchers... I'd trade Perkins or Blackburn for a great young shortstop or second baseman, but not a third baseman. Even though Joe Crede is only signed for this year, I'm not worried about the future of third base for the Twins. Their top prospect in the upper levels of the minors is 3B Danny Valencia. He is killing the ball at AA right now, and I'm sure I'll do an article on him in the next few days...

The other story of the game was Joe Mauer, hitting his 9th home run of the year, matching his home run total from last year in just 21 games. No doubt, this guy has been the best hitter in baseball this month. It sure is fun to see him hitting .429, getting on-base .516% of the time and slugging .844. Those are just sick numbers! He's on pace for 60 homers and 185 RBI's. I know he's not likely to keep that pace up for the whole season, but if he did, he would have the greatest non-steroid offensive season of all-time. At his pace he could hit over .400, break Roger Maris pre-steroid HR mark of 61, and win the triple crown. I know that is extremely unlikely and premature, but it is fun to dream. And the kid is just 26.

It has been great to see Michael Cuddyer return to form. The guy is just locked in. Hits for the cycle last night, and now is second on the team with 30 RBI. Plus 7 homers. It has been great to have a right-handed power bat in the lineup, especially since Delmon Young isn't developing the power we'd hoped to have seen from him at this point.

At this point Mauer and Morneau have to be the best 1-2 punch in the majors. And Span, Mauer, Morneau, Kubel, and Cuddyer form a nice little offensive juggernaut. And Crede is not a bad guy to have at #6 with his seven homers. Now if the bottom third of the lineup would just start hitting, the Twins would have an amazing lineup all the way through. But it needs to start with Delmon Young. He should return to the lineup today, and I hope he starts heating up now. He usually starts off the season slowly, so hopefully he is past that now.

Twins destroy White Sox 20-1

I think the box score speaks for itself today. Joe Mauer has a ridiculous 1.319 OPS. Not to mention 8 home runs in 19 games. If he keeps this pace up, he will be the AL MVP. Also, Michael Cuddaver seems to have woken up and he is on track to have a season similar to his remarkable 2006 year.

The batting order seems like a silly thing to talk about while the pitching on this team has been so horrendous. But we'll do so anyways. The biggest problem with Gardy's batting order has been the #2 spot. Probably 90% or more of the at-bats there this season have been filled by the likes of Alexi Casilla and Matt Tolbert, who were both hitting under the Mendoza line. This is obviously not what you want from your #2 hitter. You want someone who gets on base at a 35 or 40 percent clip, so that the heart of your order has runs to drive in. A little speed/good baserunning skills is a good thing to have as well. This is probably the perfect spot to slot in Joe Mauer. (Although now that he is hammering homers every other day, he is a great #3 hitter as well.) Gardenhire might have figured that out today, and he plugged Mauer into the #2 spot, and just like magic the Twins go off for 20 runs. Now of course nobody scores 20 runs a game, but I think it would help the offense run a little better. Here is my preferred lineup to maximize run scoring potential:

CF Span
C Mauer
1B Morneau
DH Kubel
RF Cuddyer
3B Crede
LF Young
2B Tolbert
SS Harris

I chose Harris over Tolbert in the 9th spot because they both see roughly the same amount of at-bats, but I think it's preferrable to have your worst hitter in the 8th spot rather than the 9th. The reason is that the 9th guy isn't that far away from your power hitters, so why would you want an automatic out 2 batters before Mauer, Morneau, and Kubel come up?

Another decent reason to shift up Mauer, Morneau, and Kubel up one spot is that they will receive a slight increase of at-bats, being a little closer to the top of the order.

Anyways, batting orders are largely overrated, but there are a few things you can easily avoid that can plague your lineup. Perhaps Gardenhire has figured out that one of them is don't place an automatic out in the lineup right before your best hitters come to bat.

Projected HR Totals

From ESPN statistics, here are what their projected home run totals are for the Twins:

52 - Joe Mauer
50 - Justin Morneau
27 - Joe Crede
22 - Jason Kubel
17 - Michael Cuddyer
11 - Brendan Harris
8 - Denard Span
8 - Brian Buscher
6 - Delmon Young
0 - Carlos Gomez
0 - Nick Punto
0 - Matt Tolbert
0 - Mike Redmond

And time to redo my predictions:
Justin Morneau - 38
Joe Mauer - 34
Jason Kubel - 26
Joe Crede - 22
Michael Cuddyer - 18
Delmon Young - 13
Carlos Gomez - 10
Brendan Harris - 9
Denard Span - 7
Brian Buscher - 6
Alexi Casilla - 4
Nick Punto - 1
Matt Tolbert - 1
Mike Redmond - 0

Jason Kubel - Twins Cleanup Hitter

Wow I just watched another incredible Twins victory! They might not have a lot of wins so far this season but they have already had 3 incredibly memorable ones.

Tonight Jason Kubel hit for the cycle and hit a grand slam HR to complete the cycle in the 8th and put the Twins up 11-9. That was exciting! Kubel was an extremely well-regarded prospect, some saying he was as great of a hitter as Mauer and Morneau, plus he played good outfield defense. But a knee injury a few years ago in the fall really hurt him and the next few years he regained strength but never really got back to his old level. People have been picking him to breakout for a few years now, and this might be the year it happens. I hope he is the everyday DH from here on out. Mauer and Morneau are the two best hitters and Kubel and Span are easily the next two best. I wonder how much longer people will pitch to Morneau to get to Kubel (which is what happened before the grand slam.) I think Morneau will start to see better pitches and he too will have better numbers. When Mauer gets back I'd love to see the top 4 of the batting order go Span/Mauer/Morneau/Kubel. I think batting orders are overrated but I do think it is important to get your best players more at-bats than anybody else and sticking them at the top of the order is the best way to do it. Plus Span and Mauer get on-base around 40% of the time, which creates excellent RBI opportunities for Kubel and Morneau.

Ranking the Twins position players

Note: These rankings take into account offense AND defense. These aren't necessarily based off numbers. This is how I'd rank their value for the next few months:

1. Mauer - Arguably more valuable to the Twins than any other player is to his team in the majors.
2. Morneau - I'd hate to imagine where the Twins would be without his bat.
3. Span - Gets on base at a great rate, has gold glove defense at all three outfield positions.
4. Kubel - Has great bat, but Span's defense is much better.
5. Cuddyer - The next five could be ranked in almost any order. Cuddyer is a nice right-handed bat with a great arm.
6. Crede - Superb defense, with some nice pop in the bat, although he could get on base at a better clip.
7. Casilla - Has developed into a superb #2 hitter, and I love his range at 2B, although he still makes silly mistakes.
8. Gomez - If his new plate approach develops him into a more patient hitter and he develops a bit more power, he easily cracks into the top five, as he is already the best defensive outfielder in the majors.
9. Young - Don't know where to stick this guy. I'd love to stick him at #3 on this list as that is where his potential is. Still is very young for the majors, we'll see how this season turns out.
10. Punto - He is better than I give him credit for, defense is great, although very over-rated.
11. Harris - Decent bat, can play all over the infield, although not very well.
12. Redmond - One of the best backup catchers in the majors hands-down.
13. Buscher - I really like his bat, his defense is likely why the Twins signed Crede.

Predicting home run totals

Last season the Twins only hit 111 home runs while their opponents hit 183 against them. Only two players on the Twins hit more than 20(Morneau and Kubel) and only one more hit in double digits (Young). That said, I believe the Twins will show much more power this year. Getting Cuddyer back is one reason, adding Joe Crede is another. A full season for players like Denard Span and Alexi Casilla should help their numbers. Getting better/older/wiser should mean improvements for Carlos Gomez and Delmon Young. Getting LASIK-eye surgery and talking to Harmon Killebrew should hopefully lead to improved totals for Justin Morneau(not to mention better protection for him in the lineup.)

Here is my predicted home run totals for the Twins:
Justin Morneau - 34
Jason Kubel - 30
Joe Crede - 24
Michael Cuddyer - 22
Delmon Young - 21
Carlos Gomez - 16
Denard Span - 13
Alexi Casilla - 12
Joe Mauer - 12 (If Mauer hit for 25-30 HR a year, he'd be the best catcher in history)
Brendan Harris - 6
Brian Buscher - 6
Nick Punto - 2
Mike Redmond - 0

Chances are at the end of the season, I'll look silly for those predictions. The Twins never hit for that much power. But this year just feels a little different...

Baseball America's Top Ten Minnesota Twins Prospects

Baseball America released their top 10 Minnesota Twins prospect list today:

1. Aaron Hicks, of
2. Ben Revere, of
3. Wilson Ramos, c
4. Jose Mijares, lhp
5. Danny Valencia, 3b
6. Anthony Swarzak, rhp
7. Shooter Hunt, rhp
8. Kevin Mulvey, rhp
9. Carlos Gutierrez, rhp
10. Angel Morales, of

I can't say I disagree with it much. I'm not as high on Gutierrez as they are. I like that they rated Mijares that high, he will be a huge help to the bullpen next year. My view on the Twins farm system is that it is very deep, much deeper than in years past, but that it isn't very top heavy, in other words they don't have a top prospect like a Mauer, or a Liriano or Garza or a Young or Morneau sitting there. These guys are probably more like a Kubel, a Slowey, a Casilla, a Bartlett, potential to be good, but maybe not all-stars. But then again, I do have high hopes, especially Hicks should be an all-star, maybe Revere, Ramos, or Morales. I don't know. Nobody does. Nobody knew Span would all of a sudden break out. I guess most these guys won't be helping the team within the next 2 years so we will be able to better judge them as time goes on. But it sure is fun, even though every fan overvalues their team prospects.

Here is Baseball America's former top 10 picks for Twins top prospect:

1999	Michael Cuddyer, 3b	Twins
2000	Michael Cuddyer, 3b	Twins
2001	Adam Johnson, rhp	So. Maryland (Atlantic)
2002	Joe Mauer, c	Twins
2003	Joe Mauer, c	Twins
2004	Joe Mauer, c	Twins
2005	Joe Mauer, c	Twins
2006	Francisco Liriano, lhp	Twins
2007	Matt Garza, rhp	Rays
2008	Nick Blackburn, rhp	Twins

Blackburn was a weird choice, but he was solid last year. Ouch, Adam Johnson was a big bust.

And here is what they think our lineup will look like in 2012:

Catcher	Joe Mauer
First Base	Justin Morneau
Second Base	Alexi Casilla
Third Base	Danny Valencia
Shortstop	Trevor Plouffe
Left Field	Ben Revere
Center Field	Aaron Hicks
Right Field	Delmon Young
Designated Hitter	Jason Kubel
No. 1 Starter	Francisco Liriano
No. 2 Starter	Scott Baker
No. 3 Starter	Kevin Slowey
No. 4 Starter	Nick Blackburn
No. 5 Starter	Glen Perkins
Closer	Joe Nathan

I like it. Plouffe is the worst guy on that list. I'd sure like the Twins to trade for a shortstop like Yunel Escobar or JJ Hardy this winter. But the Twins immediate and long-term future looks very bright.

Superstitions

Sometimes I hate watching sporting events because I am so superstitious. I always end up blaming myself if the team loses. Maybe one night I'll sit with my arms folded, and them someone will do something good. But then all of a sudden that sitting position doesn't help the team. Or if I stop watching the game all of a sudden my team does good. I know I'm not the only person who is like this but I hate it especially on nights like tonight. Because of course I have no control over what happens during the game. I wonder why some people like myself think we do...

Man it would be nice if the Twins had someone with home run power. It feels like the Sox whole lineup has more HR's than Morneau. Kubel is the only other Twin in the 20's HR and Young is next with only 10. And somehow the Twins managed to score the 3rd most runs in franchise history but it is nights like tonight where it sure would have been nice to have a few big bats in the lineup. Hopefully with the new satdium team management will be able to spend some $$ on good free agents and if they do that then this team will become a real juggernaut. The season was great but boy the last month was terrible!! Thanks for the memories 2008 Twins.

Cuddyer on the DL

Michael Cuddyer was injured in last night's victory. The Twins placed him on the DL and called up Denard Span to replace him. It is tough to lose your #3 hitter, but Delmon Young should be hitting third and now he will probably get his chance. Plus this means that Jason Kubel, arguably the Twins best hitter(that is another post for another time) will be playing everyday. So actually this just might jumpstat the Twins offense.

And how about Gomez! 3 hits last night, he is hitting .450 and leading the majors with 4 steals.

Will the Twins be better this year??

To answer this question we will look at how I expect the 2008 player’s improvement or lack thereof vs the 2007 player. The measurement is just level of improvement at that position with 1 being 2008 has a decent improvement over 2007, 3 being really big improvement, and 4 being enormous. Obviously -4 would be an enormous downgrade from 2007 to 2008. Enjoy.

Lineup
2007 C Joe Mauer vs 2008 C Joe Mauer. +2
2007 1B Justin Morneau vs 2008 Justin Morneau +2
2007 2B Luis Castillo vs 2008 Brendan Harris +1
2007 SS Jason Bartlett vs 2008 SS Adam Everett 0
2007 3B Nick Punto vs 2008 3B Mike Lamb +4
2007 LF Jason Tyner vs 2008 LF Delmon Young +4
2007 CF Torii Hunter vs 2008 CF Carlos Gomez? -4
2007 RF Michael Cuddyer vs 2008 Michael Cuddyer 0
2007 DH Rondell White vs 2008 DH Jason Kubel +3

Total lineup improvement +12
Bench
2007 C Mike Redmond vs 2008 C Mike Redmond 0
2007 INF Nick Punto vs 2008 INF Nick Punto +1 (could he get any worse?!)
2007 INF Luis Rodriguez vs 2008 INF Brian Buscher +1
2007 OF Lew Ford vs 2008 OF Craig Monroe +1
2007 INF Garrett Jones vs 2008 INF Garrett Jones 0
Total bench improvement +3
Total offensive improvement +15

Starting Pitching
2007 SP Johan Santana vs 2008 SP Francisco Liriano 0
2007 SP Matt Garza vs 2008 SP Kevin Slowey -1
2007 SP Carlos Silva vs 2008 SP Livan Hernandez -2
2007 SP Scott Baker vs 208 SP Scott Baker +1
2007 SP Boof Bonser vs 2008 SP Boof Bonser +3

Total Starting Pitching improvement : +1

Bullpen
2007 CL Joe Nathan vs 2008 CL Joe Nathan 0
2007 RP Pat Neshek vs 2008 RP Pat Neshek 0
2007 RP Matt Gurrier vs 2008 RP Matt Guerrier -1
2007 RP Jesse Crain vs 2008 RP Jesse Crain +2
2007 RP Dennys Reyes vs 2008 RP Dennys Reyes +2
2007 RP Juan Rincon vs 2008 RP Juan Rincon +2
Total Bullpen Improvement: +5
Total Pitching Improvement: +6

Total Improvement overall +21

That is pretty good. I project that on the 25 man roster, an average of 21 Twins will have a decent improvement over last year’s players. This is me probably just being too optimistic but stranger things have happened. Look at 2006, almost all the Twins had their best year so far. Of course other teams got substantially better and you don’t have to look outside of the Twins’ division. Detroit will have the scariest lineup in the major leagues and we will get to face them plenty this season. The bottom line is this. The Twins just lost their best pitcher ever in Johan Santana and some dude named Torii Hunter in the offseason, hence many are writing the Twins off as rebuilding project aimed to get good in 2010 for their new ballpark. Just don’t be surprised if the “rebuilding” Twins have a better record in 2008 than they did in 2007.

Spring Training and 2008

The Twins started spring training yesterday. They lost 6-1 to the Reds, but hey it is just spring training. Francisco Liriano finally arrived to camp on Wednesday as well. It makes one wonder how the Twins would have done in 2007 (and for the playoffs in 2006) with a healthy Liriano. Boy am I excited to watch him this year. He is my current favorite athlete, right in front of Deron Williams. The Twins had a very disappointing season last year, especially considering how they had the Cy Young winner, the MVP, the batting champ, the best closer in the game, one of the best center fielders in the game. But other than that they didn’t have a lot. And the stars all had down years except for Hunter. So there is reason to believe that they will be better in 2008 than in 2007, despite the losses of Santana, Hunter, and Silva. Here are five players that will have a better year than last.



Jason Kubel - he will finally have his breakout season. He was once regarded about as high of a prospect as Mauer and Morneau. He should cement himself as the Twins DH for the long term.

Joe Mauer - he wasn’t at full strength last year, look for him to improve power numbers to 15-20 HR and be in the thick of the batting title race.

Boof Bonser - was great towards the end of 2006. He then put on a lot of weight and had a lot of problems in 2007. He dropped 25 pounds in the offseason and he should be better in 2008.

Justin Morneau - the 2006 AL MVP had a great first half of 2007. He slumped big time in the second half, after having a few injuries. Look for him to put up numbers similar to his 2006 season.

Dennys Reyes - The dude was unhittable in 2006 but had a terrible 2007. For some reason he is great one year, terrible the next, great the next, then terrible. 2008 lands on the good year of his crazy cycle of success.

2008 Minnesota Twins

Presenting your 2008 Minnesota Twins


CF Carlos Gomez
This speedy Dominican was acquired from the Mets in the Johan Santana trade. He could eventually be the first player to steal 100+ bases in a season since Rickey Henderson. Faster than Jose Reyes. 5-tool player.

DH Jason Kubel
This should be Kubel’s breakout season. He was once a very highly ranked prospect like Morneau and Mauer before a serious knee injury. He showed lots of potential last season.

C Joe Mauer
2007 was a down year for him. He might not win the batting title this year like in 2006 but look for his power and home run numbers to go up exponentially this year.

LF Delmon Young
The best new member of the Twins is about the best young hitter in the game. The Twins acquired him in the Garza trade. He might put up just as good of numbers as Torii Hunter did last year. This is his second year in the majors.

1B Justin Morneau
He slumped big time in the second half of last year. Before that he was 2nd in the league in most offensive stats. Cracking the 40 home run mark isn’t out of the question for this slugger. He needs to have a big year after signing the biggest contract ever given to a Minnesota Twin.

RF Michael Cuddyer
The best outfield arm in the majors should look to put up solid numbers again this year. Signed an extension with the Twins in the offseason.

3B Mike Lamb
The Twins first REAL 3B sine Corey Koskie. Thank goodness the Twins signed him so we don’t have to put up with another season of Nick Punto. He should surprise a lot of people with his bat, has 20 HR potential although the glove isn’t great.

2B Brendan Harris
Acquired for Jason Bartlett during the offseason. Has better bat than Bartlett and should put up 12 - 15 HR and have one of the best seasons with the bat for the Twins since Knoblauch.

SS Adam Everett
The top defensive player in the majors. His bat is not great, Punto-esque, but he more than makes up for it with his glove.


LHP Francisco Liriano
If he returns to his 2006 form, he will make Twins fans forget Johan Santana quicker. He was pitching better than Santana when he was healthy, but after Tommy-John surgery he is not a guarantee to pitch like before. The closest thing to a Santana clone in the majors.

RHP Scott Baker
Had a great last year topped by a perfect game going into the 9th inning vs the Royals. Should be a solid #2 starter.

RHP Boof Bonser
The Twins need him to step up big. They won’t be as patient as they were with him in 2007. He did lose 20 pounds in the off season and could rebound to be a solid pitcher like he was for much of 2006.

RHP Kevin Slowey
Led the AAA league in ERA and it wasn’t even close. This guy has ridiculous control, he is frequently compared to Brad Radke.

RHP Glen Perkins
Perkins was injured for most of last year. This spot could be taken by Brian Duensing, Nick Blackburn, Phil Humber, or Kevin Mulvey. The Twins also might sign a veteran pitcher to help guide the young pitching staff along.



Bullpen

Closer Joe Nathan
Set-up Pat Neshek
Matt Guerrier
Jesse Crain
Juan Rincon
Dennys Reyes

The Twins return their formidable bullpen from the year before with a healthy Jesse Crain. Nathan might be traded but he still remains the top closer in the game. Neshek and Guerrier are fantastic in the 7th and 8th innings. Reyes could rebound to be unhittable like he was in 2006, and Rincon is pitching better after having a couple of down years. The Twins should once again have one of the top bullpens in the league.


Players Lost

Johan Santana
Torii Hunter
Carlos Silva
Jason Bartlett
Matt Garza
Jason Tyner
Lew Ford
Luis Rodriguez
Matt LeCroy


Players gained
Craig Monroe
Adam Everett
Mike Lamb
Deolis Guerra
Kevin Mulvey
Phil Humber
Delmon Young
Carlos Gomez
Brendan Harris
Zach Day
Livan Hernandez

So what does 2008 hold for the Minnesota Twins? 2007 was a huge disappointment after having one of the most talented Twins teams ever finish third place in the division. Then the Twins lost key players such as Santana, Hunter, Garza, Silva, and Bartlett in the offseason. They did improve their offense with such players as Young, Gomez, Harris, and Lamb. Adding Liriano back to the rotation is huge for the Twins but he is a big question mark after coming off of surgery and missing all of 2007. It is tough to say how the Twins will do in 2008. My guess is that they will score more runs with the new offense, but give up more runs with the loss of Santana, Silva, and Garza.

5 things that will make the Twins still revelant this year:

1. They have the best outfield arms in the majors. Cuddyer was #1 last year and Young was #2. Gomez also has a cannon arm. Teams won’t be trying to take that extra base.

2. Mauer, Morneau, and Young are three of the best young hitters in baseball. Kubel could join that group this year and Cuddyer is solid as well.

3. Their pitching rotation is full of great young pitchers. It could be one of the better young staffs in baseball led by Francisco Liriano who is a potential ace.

4. Joe Nathan leads one of the best bullpens in baseball. If the Twins have the lead going into the 7th inning stretch, they’ll likely keep it.

5. Nick Punto and the piranas are no more. Punto will be sitting on the bench, and Tyner is no longer on the team. Brendan Harris and Mike Lamb are two new infielders who should hit 30 home runs between the two of them. And Kubel should finally be a good DH for the Twins.



5 big problems:

1. The Twins have been a sub .500 team when Santana was not pitching over the past few years. His loss is going to sting.

2. They lost their best hitter from 2007 in Torii Hunter. And his leadership/charisma will be missed as well.

3. Detroit might have the best team in baseball right now and Cleveland isn’t too shabby either. It is a long shot at best to make the playoffs.

4. The Twins didn’t get lots of immediate help from the Santana trade. Carlos Gomez could be very good, or he might his .220 and not be on base enough to steal 40 bases.

5. If the offense continues to fail no help can be found in the minors. Most of the Twins prospects are pitchers and practically all the good hitters are at least down at single A ball. There is not another young Morneau to call up if some people are struggling.