Swarzaked

Anthony Swarzak pitched a great major league debut for the Twins. I'll take 7 innings and 0 runs anytime. Swarzak is the first Twin pitcher in history to pitch 7 shutout innings in their first major league start. That is very impressive. I'm sure he won't be in the rotation when Perkins returns, but he might be sent to the bullpen. It is nice knowing that there is another quality young starting pitcher available if needed. I wonder if the Twins would ever trade one of their young starting pitchers... I'd trade Perkins or Blackburn for a great young shortstop or second baseman, but not a third baseman. Even though Joe Crede is only signed for this year, I'm not worried about the future of third base for the Twins. Their top prospect in the upper levels of the minors is 3B Danny Valencia. He is killing the ball at AA right now, and I'm sure I'll do an article on him in the next few days...

The other story of the game was Joe Mauer, hitting his 9th home run of the year, matching his home run total from last year in just 21 games. No doubt, this guy has been the best hitter in baseball this month. It sure is fun to see him hitting .429, getting on-base .516% of the time and slugging .844. Those are just sick numbers! He's on pace for 60 homers and 185 RBI's. I know he's not likely to keep that pace up for the whole season, but if he did, he would have the greatest non-steroid offensive season of all-time. At his pace he could hit over .400, break Roger Maris pre-steroid HR mark of 61, and win the triple crown. I know that is extremely unlikely and premature, but it is fun to dream. And the kid is just 26.

It has been great to see Michael Cuddyer return to form. The guy is just locked in. Hits for the cycle last night, and now is second on the team with 30 RBI. Plus 7 homers. It has been great to have a right-handed power bat in the lineup, especially since Delmon Young isn't developing the power we'd hoped to have seen from him at this point.

At this point Mauer and Morneau have to be the best 1-2 punch in the majors. And Span, Mauer, Morneau, Kubel, and Cuddyer form a nice little offensive juggernaut. And Crede is not a bad guy to have at #6 with his seven homers. Now if the bottom third of the lineup would just start hitting, the Twins would have an amazing lineup all the way through. But it needs to start with Delmon Young. He should return to the lineup today, and I hope he starts heating up now. He usually starts off the season slowly, so hopefully he is past that now.

Twins destroy White Sox 20-1

I think the box score speaks for itself today. Joe Mauer has a ridiculous 1.319 OPS. Not to mention 8 home runs in 19 games. If he keeps this pace up, he will be the AL MVP. Also, Michael Cuddaver seems to have woken up and he is on track to have a season similar to his remarkable 2006 year.

The batting order seems like a silly thing to talk about while the pitching on this team has been so horrendous. But we'll do so anyways. The biggest problem with Gardy's batting order has been the #2 spot. Probably 90% or more of the at-bats there this season have been filled by the likes of Alexi Casilla and Matt Tolbert, who were both hitting under the Mendoza line. This is obviously not what you want from your #2 hitter. You want someone who gets on base at a 35 or 40 percent clip, so that the heart of your order has runs to drive in. A little speed/good baserunning skills is a good thing to have as well. This is probably the perfect spot to slot in Joe Mauer. (Although now that he is hammering homers every other day, he is a great #3 hitter as well.) Gardenhire might have figured that out today, and he plugged Mauer into the #2 spot, and just like magic the Twins go off for 20 runs. Now of course nobody scores 20 runs a game, but I think it would help the offense run a little better. Here is my preferred lineup to maximize run scoring potential:

CF Span
C Mauer
1B Morneau
DH Kubel
RF Cuddyer
3B Crede
LF Young
2B Tolbert
SS Harris

I chose Harris over Tolbert in the 9th spot because they both see roughly the same amount of at-bats, but I think it's preferrable to have your worst hitter in the 8th spot rather than the 9th. The reason is that the 9th guy isn't that far away from your power hitters, so why would you want an automatic out 2 batters before Mauer, Morneau, and Kubel come up?

Another decent reason to shift up Mauer, Morneau, and Kubel up one spot is that they will receive a slight increase of at-bats, being a little closer to the top of the order.

Anyways, batting orders are largely overrated, but there are a few things you can easily avoid that can plague your lineup. Perhaps Gardenhire has figured out that one of them is don't place an automatic out in the lineup right before your best hitters come to bat.

Projected HR Totals

From ESPN statistics, here are what their projected home run totals are for the Twins:

52 - Joe Mauer
50 - Justin Morneau
27 - Joe Crede
22 - Jason Kubel
17 - Michael Cuddyer
11 - Brendan Harris
8 - Denard Span
8 - Brian Buscher
6 - Delmon Young
0 - Carlos Gomez
0 - Nick Punto
0 - Matt Tolbert
0 - Mike Redmond

And time to redo my predictions:
Justin Morneau - 38
Joe Mauer - 34
Jason Kubel - 26
Joe Crede - 22
Michael Cuddyer - 18
Delmon Young - 13
Carlos Gomez - 10
Brendan Harris - 9
Denard Span - 7
Brian Buscher - 6
Alexi Casilla - 4
Nick Punto - 1
Matt Tolbert - 1
Mike Redmond - 0

Ranking the Twins position players

Note: These rankings take into account offense AND defense. These aren't necessarily based off numbers. This is how I'd rank their value for the next few months:

1. Mauer - Arguably more valuable to the Twins than any other player is to his team in the majors.
2. Morneau - I'd hate to imagine where the Twins would be without his bat.
3. Span - Gets on base at a great rate, has gold glove defense at all three outfield positions.
4. Kubel - Has great bat, but Span's defense is much better.
5. Cuddyer - The next five could be ranked in almost any order. Cuddyer is a nice right-handed bat with a great arm.
6. Crede - Superb defense, with some nice pop in the bat, although he could get on base at a better clip.
7. Casilla - Has developed into a superb #2 hitter, and I love his range at 2B, although he still makes silly mistakes.
8. Gomez - If his new plate approach develops him into a more patient hitter and he develops a bit more power, he easily cracks into the top five, as he is already the best defensive outfielder in the majors.
9. Young - Don't know where to stick this guy. I'd love to stick him at #3 on this list as that is where his potential is. Still is very young for the majors, we'll see how this season turns out.
10. Punto - He is better than I give him credit for, defense is great, although very over-rated.
11. Harris - Decent bat, can play all over the infield, although not very well.
12. Redmond - One of the best backup catchers in the majors hands-down.
13. Buscher - I really like his bat, his defense is likely why the Twins signed Crede.

Predicting home run totals

Last season the Twins only hit 111 home runs while their opponents hit 183 against them. Only two players on the Twins hit more than 20(Morneau and Kubel) and only one more hit in double digits (Young). That said, I believe the Twins will show much more power this year. Getting Cuddyer back is one reason, adding Joe Crede is another. A full season for players like Denard Span and Alexi Casilla should help their numbers. Getting better/older/wiser should mean improvements for Carlos Gomez and Delmon Young. Getting LASIK-eye surgery and talking to Harmon Killebrew should hopefully lead to improved totals for Justin Morneau(not to mention better protection for him in the lineup.)

Here is my predicted home run totals for the Twins:
Justin Morneau - 34
Jason Kubel - 30
Joe Crede - 24
Michael Cuddyer - 22
Delmon Young - 21
Carlos Gomez - 16
Denard Span - 13
Alexi Casilla - 12
Joe Mauer - 12 (If Mauer hit for 25-30 HR a year, he'd be the best catcher in history)
Brendan Harris - 6
Brian Buscher - 6
Nick Punto - 2
Mike Redmond - 0

Chances are at the end of the season, I'll look silly for those predictions. The Twins never hit for that much power. But this year just feels a little different...

Projected 2009 value of Twins roster

It looks like the Twins are content to go into 2009 with virtually the same team that they had in 2008. I can't necessarily disagree with the decision. Bill Smith has not shown to have much talent in signing free-agents or making good trades. In his first year at the helm he signed Mike Lamb, Adam Everett, and Livan Hernandez, and traded for Craig Monroe, Delmon Young, Brendan Harris, and Carlos Gomez, while giving up Johan Santana, Matt Garza, and Jason Bartlett. It is not crazy to think that the Twins would have made the World Series if he hadn't made those moves. The Twins clear strength is in drafting/developing players, especially pitching, and trading for other teams minor-leaguers such as Santana, Liriano, Bartlett, Casilla, etc.

Also it seems that the Twins would like to improve at 3B or SS or their bullpen but teams asking prices have been too high. Would you give up Denard Span and Kevin Slowey plus a good prospect just for Rockies 3B Garrett Atkins? I wouldn't. Would you give up Francisco Liriano and Delmon Young for one year of Mariners 3B Adrian Beltre? I wouldn't. It seems the Twins have been looking for help, but the other teams want a ridiculous amount of talent from the Twins. And remember the Twins have one of the youngest teams in the majors. Think about all the young stars that emerged last season. The future is bright and without further ado I'd like to rank from most valuable to least valuable I think each player will be to the Twins in 2009, the final year of the Metrodome.

Joe Mauer
Francisco Liriano
Justin Morneau
Scott Baker
Joe Nathan
Kevin Slowey
Denard Span
Delmon Young
Jason Kubel
Nick Blackburn
Michael Cuddyer
Glen Perkins
Jose Mijares
Carlos Gomez
Boof Bonser
Brendan Harris
Nick Punto
Brian Buscher
Craig Breslow
Jesse Crain
Mike Redmond
Matt Guerrier
Matt Tolbert
Jason Pridie
Phil Humber

Baseball Winter Meetings 2008

This week is when all the baseball GM's meet for a week and discuss trades and such. This year it is being held in Las Vegas. This is perhaps the busiest week during the offseason and definitely the one that spawns the most rumors. Which means I am constantly refresing my RSS feeds to get the lastest updates.

Here is some rumors from the start of day 1:

-Add Miguel Tejada to the list of players the Twins might try to trade for.

-Add the Phillies to the growing list of teams who want Delmon Young. The Twins would want someone like top prospect Jason Donald in return.

-A Seattle writer thinks perhaps Beltre's price tag has gone down. Something more like Cuddyer plus a good pitching prospect or two. I wouldn't mind that deal.


A lot of things get tossed out there as possibilities but most of it will never actually happen. But I think this year the Twins are out to get something big done, so it will be interesting to follow the Twins rumors.

Boneheaded Gardy

I can never decide if I like Ron Gardenhire or not. He seems to get a lot out of his players (see 2008) but some of his lineup choices are maddening. I don't know what a player does to do to get on his good or bad side. Matt Garza was on his bad side and the Twins shipped him off to the Rays, where he is starting to look mighty good. Nick Punto is perhaps his favorite player ever and Gardenhire gave him way too many at-bats in 2007 and Punto posted some of the worst offensive numbers of all-time. Now it appears Delmon Young is on Gardy's bad side as well.

On Wednesday in Fargo, Twins manager Ron Gardenhire said the team's three starting outfielders should be Denard Span, Carlos Gomez and Michael Cuddyer.

"Those three guys have to play every day," Gardenhire told the Fargo Forum after speaking at a farm trade show. "Delmon is in the mix. He's a heck of a player, a heck of a talent. But to me, those three guys should be your outfield and then you go from there."

The Twins have been reportadly trying to see what kind of value they could get for Delmon this offseason. Looks like Gardenhire might be the one pushing for him to be traded. I thought he had a great season last year for a 22 year old. Remember this guy has all the talent in the world. But if you are trying to trade him, saying he wouldn't start over Cuddyer or Gomez does not increase his trade value! If I were Bill Smith I would make Gardy be quiet for the rest of the offseason.

There might be 2 shortstops I would trade Young for: JJ Hardy and Yunel Escobar. And I would hesitate before pulling the trigger on that one.

In other Twins news, it looks like it is down to the Twins and Dodgers in the running for 3B Casey Blake. If either team offers one more year or more money to their current offers, Blake will sign with them. I will not complain about signing Blake, especially if it is just a 2 year deal. He is 35, but could be our best 3B since Koskie. Plus we wouldn't give anything up for Blake, since he is a free-agent. That way we could have all our trade bait still available to fill the much larger SS hole with something besides Gardy's favorite player ever, Nick Punto.

Cuddyer/Atkins rumors

-The Twins are being pretty quiet at the GM meetings. But on MLBTradeRumors.com they are reporting that the Twins are in discussions with the Rockies about 3B Garrett Atkins.

From Denver via http://blogs.rockymountainnews.com/rockies/archives/2008/11/twins_cuddyer_c.html

"An intriguing name to watch in any Rockies talks about sending third baseman Garrett Atkins to Minnesota is outfielder Michael Cuddyer, who missed 2 1/2 months last season with a strained tendon in his left index finger and has fallen into a backup role because of the emergence of young Twins outfielders."

"The Rockies are looking to add a quality starter in the offseason, and the Twins could offer the likes of Nick Blackburn or Kevin Slowey. But the Rockies would also like to add a right-handed, run-producing hitter in a multiple-player package, which is where Cuddyer, a strong clubhouse presence, would fit."

"The Twins have rebuilt their outfield with Delmon Young in left, Carlos Gomez in center and Denard Span in right."

If they would take Cuddyer for Atkins straight up, I would say do it. It would solve the 5 outfielders for 4 positions problem and the 3B hole/lacking a right-handed power bat with just one trade. I didn't think Cuddyer's trade value was that high. I'd much rather lose Cuddyer than Young or even Span and Gomez. But if the Rockies are asking for Blackburn or Slowey I would say thanks but no thanks.

Atkins plays in the most hitter-friendly park in all of baseball, Coors Field. The thing that scares me about him is his OPS has gone down each of the last seasons.
2006 OPS: .965, 2007: .853, 2008: .780.
HR 2006: 29, 2007:25, 2008:21.
RBI 2006: 120, 2007:111, 2008:99
On Base Percentage: 2006: .409, 2007: .367, 2008: .328

He is only 28 years old and his salary is in the $4 million range. I don't know everything about him, but I know he is a good hitting third-baseman, although the downward slope he is on scares me. Still he is a better option than Brian Buscher or Brendan Harris.

The Span Man

The Twins new baseball field will be called Target Field. That sounds better than say, Land O' Lakes field (LOL Field just doesn't look good.)
Good to see Cuddyer is finally back from the DL.
And it is great to see Morneau take over the AL RBI lead.

Now to today's main post topic. Denard Span, the Span man. I, along with most people thought Denard Span was a wasted first round draft pick. He just never really had good numbers in the minors. That is why the Twins traded for a CF in the Santana trade. But the Span man got LASIK eye surgery in the offseason and that or maybe other things we don't know about have made all the difference. The guy is one of the best lead off players in the game. He is a CF but he has been playing mainly in RF because Gomez is the best defensive CF in the game, but Span has been perhaps the best defensive RF this season. Here is what his numbers translate to over a full 162 game season:
That my friends is a quality lead-off hitter. Isn't that what you want? Someone who gets lots of walks, who gets on base at a high clip and who has some speed and steals, and a little gap power as well. I wonder who the Twins would have traded for if they knew Span was going to play out of his mind like this.
.304 AVG (15th best in league)
.387 OBP (5th best in the league)
.447 SLG
86 RBI (17th in league)
36 SB (6th in league)
122 Runs (1st)
187 Hits (3rd)
35 Doubles (15th in league)
11 Triples (2nd in league)
13 Home Runs
80 BB (7th in league)
.834 OPS (26th)

Cuddyer on the DL

Michael Cuddyer was injured in last night's victory. The Twins placed him on the DL and called up Denard Span to replace him. It is tough to lose your #3 hitter, but Delmon Young should be hitting third and now he will probably get his chance. Plus this means that Jason Kubel, arguably the Twins best hitter(that is another post for another time) will be playing everyday. So actually this just might jumpstat the Twins offense.

And how about Gomez! 3 hits last night, he is hitting .450 and leading the majors with 4 steals.

Looking at the Johan Santana Trade: Carlos Gomez

Carlos Gomez
Center Field
Born: 12/85
Bats: Right

YEAR LV PA AVG OBP SLG HR XBH BB SO
2005 A- 539 .275 .331 .376 8 27 32 88
2006 AA 486 .281 .350 .423 7 39 27 97
2007 AAA 157 .286 .363 .414 2 12 15 23
MLB 139 .232 .288 .304 2 5 8 27

Carlos Gomez was signed out of the Dominican Republic as a 16-year-old in 2002. Last year he was the NL’s youngest player. He struggled, hitting just .232 with an on-base percentage of .288 and a slugging percentage of .304 in 58 games, and missed about two months with a broken left hand. Those numbers shouldn’t be too concerning as he was just 21.

In 156 games between Double-A and Triple-A, Gomez hit .282 with a .354 on-base percentage and a slugging percentage of .421 with nine homers, 51 total extra-base hits, 58 steals, and a 120-to-42 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Those are great numbers for someone his age playing at such a high level. His biggest weakness is that he lacks plate discipline. Gomez has more power potential than most speedy players. If Gomez can hit for power and average he will be a tremendous player because he is the fastest player in baseball.

Gomez also is an excellent defensive center fielder. He has great range and a tremendous arm. The Twins will have the best outfield arms in the majors with him, Delmon Young, and Michael Cuddyer. Gomez could quickly make fans forget about Torii Hunter but he likely won’t be amazing this year, and could use a few more months in AAA.

What to do with Joe Nathan

The save statistic is one of the worst statistics in baseball, up there with a win or loss for a pitcher, batting average, errors, and RBI. But that is another topic for another day. Today we’ll be examining Joe Nathan.

Lets look at a better statistic. It is called Win Probability Added (WPA). It measures how much a player does to help his team win games. It comes from a list of probabilities from 30 years of MLB history. All situations are listed with a percentage of times that their team in that situation won. Example: if a team goes into the bottom of the eighth down a run they only have a 23% chance to win. So each player earns points by how much they help their team. If you are the leadoff batter and you get on base your team now has 31% chance to win. The batter gets 8 points difference and the opposing pitcher gets -8 points. Lets say the next batter hits into a double play then all of a sudden the team’s chances drop to 13% and he gets -18 points, while the pitcher gets 18 points.

So the leader in WPA over the last four years has been Joe Nathan. Yup he ranks higher than Johan Santana, Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, and Michael Cuddyer. He ranks higher because as the game ends every at-bat because a lot more valuable. Every time he goes in and gets a save he gets 13 points. 13% of the time a pitcher fails to do that. Nathan earns all those points because if he blows the lead then he loses about 87 points, and that will wipe out a lot of good innings.

Maybe we haven’t realized just how good Joe Nathan has been. Over the last four years he’s been the best closer in Twins history. He’s been in the all-star game, he’s finished in the top 5 of the Cy Young twice. He’s gone 19-8, with an ERA of 1.62, 2.70, 1.58 and 1.88 over those four years. And he’s accumulated 160 saves. Basically he’s been the best closer in baseball over the past 4 years.

The problem is that the closer market has gone crazy last year. Nathan is in his last year of the current contract with the Twins and he can test the market next year. So the Twins have a few options. They could sign him to a long term deal now, they can trade him now, they can trade him at the trade deadline, or they can let him walk after this season. Judging by the current contracts given to closers like a $46 million 4 year contract to Francisco Corder or even Eric Gagne earning $10 million this year, Nathan could command a lot more than that. The Twins could afford it, but I don’t think it is wise as they are not huge contenders right now and they shouldn’t pay $17 million a year for someone who pitches 70 innings a year. My pick is to trade him at the trade deadline to a team who is desperate for a top of the line closer and get two top prospects in return. It just wouldn’t be wise for a low budget team that is trying to be contenders in 2010 to pay that amount of money to a closer, especially when the Twins are excellent at making a top-notch bullpen. Pat Neshek would be an excellent closer should the Twins decide to part with Nathan.

The Good Doctor and Cuddyer

If you had told a Twins fan that the Minnesota Twins had signed a player to a 6 year deal today you would have thought that they were talking about Johan Santana. The Santana question still goes on but today the Twins signed 1B Justin Morneau and RF Michael Cuddyer to 2 big contracts. Morneau's is worth 6 years and $80 million. I am happy about these signings because it shows that the Twins still want to compete. They had just been granted a new ballpark that will open in 2010, and then ownership lets Torii Hunter and Carlos Silva leave, and prepared to trade away the best pitcher in the game, Johan Santana. But now they have signed the 2006 MVP in Justin Morneau and the best right field arm in Michael Cuddyer. Both are homegrown talent and it is nice to see the Twins hold on to them. They signed Joe Mauer to a 4 year deal last year. Now can the Twins resign Santana after showing that they still want to compete now, or will they trade him away? I say at this point keep him, and try to sign him. With Francisco Liriano coming back, Santana/Liriano forms the best 1-2 punch in the game. Here is the potential opening day lineup:

CF Kenny Lofton
DH Jason Kubel
C Joe Mauer
LF Delmon Young
1B Justin Morneau
RF Michael Cuddyer
3B Michael Lamb
2B Brendan Harris
SS Adam Everett

SP Johan Santana
SP Francisco Liriano
SP Scott Baker
SP Boof Bonser
SP Kevin Slowey

Looks pretty solid to me, a team that could definitely make the playoffs.