Help on the way?

Now that we have reviewed who some of the Twins' best prospects are, naturally one would wonder who can help the Twins in 2009. In 2008 several players helped tremendously such as Denard Span, Alexi Casilla, Brian Buscher, Nick Blackburn, Kevin Slowey, Glen Perkins, and Jose Mijares among others. Some, such as Casilla, Span, and Buscher weren't high on people's lists at the start of 2008. So I won't be surprised if someone not on this list helps out in a big way. With that being said here are some prospects close to the majors:

1. Jose Mijares. Left Handed Relief Pitcher. He should be the 7th or 8th inning set-up man. He was dominant in September.
2. Anthony Swarzak. Starting Pitcher. Won't start the season with the Twins unless they trade Blackburn or Perkins. Was lights out when he was called up to AAA.
3. Kevin Mulvey. Starting Pitcher. If Swarzak isn't the first guy to be called up, Mulvey would be in contention as well. Was solid, but not spectacular at AAA last year.
4. Brian Duensing. Starting Pitcher. Same story as Mulvey. Pitched in the Olympics. Had a better year in 2007 than 2008.
5. Phil Humber. Starting Pitcher. This guy will be with the Twins or dropped at the start of 2009, because he is out of options. He will likely be the long-relief out of the bullpen if Bonser is traded.

Others who could be called up if there was an emergency:
Danny Valencia 3B
Luke Hughes 2B/3B
Matt Macri IF
Roberty Delaney RP
Anthony Slama RP
Trevor Plouffe SS

It is hard to say who of these guys will be the Span or Casilla of 2009. My guess is that only Mijares will contribute out of this group. The Twins are too deep and young and they plan to fill some holes through trades or free-agency. Really it is too early to tell. Most these guys if they did come up in 2009 it would be after the all-star break, if not until 2010.

Tim's Sports Blog Top 20 Minnesota Twins Prospects

20. Carlos Gutierrez - RHP - A - 22
Gutierrez was the closer for the Miami Hurricans but the Twins intend to use him as a starter. He didn't play much for the Twins because of his long college season with the Hurricanes. It will be interesting to see how his transition goes. Was a first round draft pick this year, compensation for Torii Hunter's departure.
2009: Playing at single A level
Major League Potential - decent middle of the order pitcher
ETA: 2011

19. Phil Humber - RHP - AAA - 25
Originally the #3 pick in the draft by the Mets a few years ago. Was terrible to start the year, but in August went 4 - 1 with a 2.74 ERA. Received a September callup and played the long relief role out of the bullpen. Is out of options so will likely resume that role in 2009 or be let go.
2009: MLB
Major League Potential : Long reliever/setup man/#5 starter. Perhaps higher if he turned the corner.
ETA: 2009

18. Brian Duensing - LHP - AAA - 25
Duensing was on the American Olympic team. Would be in the majors if he was in a different organization. He is at the back end of a logjam of pitchers. In 2007 he had a 3.24 ERA, this year it was a bit higher. Potential trade bait.
2009: AAA/MLB
Major League Potential- decent #5 starter
ETA: 2009

17. Joe Benson - OF - Low A - 20
He is one of he best athletes out of the Twins prospects. Was injured for much of 2008. Had 23 XBH in 234 at bats.
2009: A
Major League Potential: 25 HR power, 25 SB, great glove
ETA: 2012

16. Jeff Manship - RHP - AA - 23
Was lights out at A ball, was a little more shaky at AA, but finished the season strong. He will pitch in the Twins top prospect Arizona fall league.
2009: AA/AAA
Major League Potential - #3 Starter
ETA: 2010

15. Trevor Plouffe - SS - AAA - 22
Had 49 extra base hits in the minors last year between AA and AAA. Plays solid defense, could be the Twins future SS of the future. I'd prefer to see the Twins get someone bigger through a trade like JJ Hardy, but he isn't a bad option for the future.
2009: AAA/MLB
Major League Potential - MLB SS with some pop and good defense
ETA: 2009

14. Chris Parmalee - OF/1B - Low A - 20
Parmalee was injured for much of last season. In more or less half a season he had 14 HR and 49 RBI. Probably would have led the organization in HR's had he stayed healthy. Bad BA and strikes out a lot. An Adam Dunn type. The Twins best power prospect.
2009: A
Major League Potential - Corner outfielder who either hits a HR, strikes out, or walks most at bats
ETA: 2011

13. Shooter Hunt - RHP - Rookie League - 22
A first round draft pick for the Twins in 2008. Started out with the Elizabethton Twins and gave up 1 run in 19 innings. Was moved up and didn't fare quite as well but the potential is definitely there. Has the best curveball in the Twins organization.
2009: Low A/A
Major League Potential: #2 or 3 pitcher
ETA: 2013

12. Anthony Slama - RHP (Reliever) - A - 24
Slama likely had the best season of any Twin minor leaguer. It is hard to know how to rate his numbers because for his age he should have been in AA or AAA ball. But in 51 games (71 innings) he was 4-1, had 25 saves, had a 1.01 ERA, a .95 WHIP, struck out 110, gave up just 43 hits and 24 walks. I was hoping he would be up with the Twins in September but alas he wasn't called up. He better get some serious innings at higher levels so the Twins can see what they have on their hands.
2009: AA/AAA
Major League Potential: Lights out reliever, perhaps future closer
ETA: 2010

11. Tyler Robertson - LHP - A - 20
In 15 starts he went 5-3 and had a 2.72 ERA. He was injured most the rest of the season, or else he likely would have ranked much higher. Some people rate him sas the Twins best pitching prospect.
2009: A
Major League Potential: #2 or 3 pitcher
ETA: 2011/2012

10. Kevin Mulvey - RHP - AAA - 23
Mulvey had a 3.77 ERA and struck out 121. He was the most consistent starter in AAA, and could step into the rotation if something happens to one of the big league starters.
2009: AAA/MLB
Major League Potential: Solid back end of the rotation starter
ETA: 2009

9. Deolis Guerra - RHP - A - 19
Ok Guerra didn't have a great season, but he the youngest player in A ball. Really most players his age are a few steps back, if not just getting out of high school. He still has the potential to be an ace and the biggest piece in the Johan Santana trade.
2009: A/AA
Major League Potential: #1 Starter/Ace
ETA: 2011

8. Wilson Ramos - C - A - 21
The Dominican Ramos hit 13 HR and 22 doubles while hitting around .300. A very good catcher with a great arm. Those are good numbers for a 20 year old in a pitcher friendly league. He could take turns DHing and catching with Mauer when he arrives.
2009: AA
Major League Potential: Slugging catcher who could move Mauer from the plate
ETA: 2010

7. Luke Hughes - 3B/2B/CF - AAA - 24
Hughes came out of nowhere to climb high onto the Twins prospect lists. In April alone he slugged 8 HR's and hit well over .300. He was injured off and on but made his way to the all-star game and earned a promotion to AAA. He could add some needed power to the Twins in 2009 as one of the team's infielders.
2009: AAA/MLB
Major League Potential: decent power bat
ETA: 2009

6. Anthony Swarzak - RHP - AAA - 23
Swarzak was stuck at AA at the beginning of last year and he didn't do so hot, perhaps disappointed he wasn't at AAA. When he did move up he was lights-out. He went 5-0 with 1.80 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. The best starting pitching prospect. If Perkins or Blackburn are traded he could step into the Twins pitching rotation.
2009: AAA/MLB
Major League Potential: #2 starter
ETA: 2009

5. Jose Mijares - LHP (Relief) - AA - 23
Mijares was in a terrible accident before the season that cut his season short. However he was called up to the Twins in September and quickly evolved into the 8th inning set up man. He was amazing and was the best reliever down the strech. Look for more of the same, although might be moved to 7th inning with Neshek coming back.
2009 : MLB
Major league Potential : Great lefty, primary setup man, future closer
ETA: 2009


4. Danny Valencia - 3B - AA - 23
Had an .850 - .950 OPS between A and AA ball last season. Hit 15 HR as well. Many view him as the Twins 3B of the future, perhaps as early as next year, but if not, then in time for the new ballpark.
2009: AAA / MLB
Major league potential: Good power & average, and good defense
ETA: 2009


3. Angel Morales - CF - Rookie ball - 18
Had a .623 slugging percentage and 15 HR in a short season with the Elizabethton Twins. A 5 - tool prospect. Could have easily been #1 on this list.
2009: Low A ball.
Major league potential: Solid middle of the order bat with power.
ETA: 2012

2. Aaron Hicks - CF - Rookie ball-19
The Twins first pick in the 2008 draft. He is one of the best prospects they have had in years. Many teams wanted to draft him as a pitcher, which tells me he will have an amazing outfield arm. A solid athlete who can hit for power, average, has speed, amazing defense, and a cannon arm.
2009: Low A ball.
Major league potential: Solid middle of the order order bat.
ETA: 2012

1. Ben Revere - CF - Low A - 20
Revere had the best season of any minor league Twin in 2008. He flirted with .400 BA for most the season and hit .379 with a .433 OBP and .497 SLG. He had 17 doubles and 10 triples, and 44 steals. Perhaps isn't the best defender at this point but he should improve thanks to his blazing speed.
2009: Play in A/AA ball.
Major league potential: SB machine, good leadoff bat.
ETA:2010/2011

A look ahead: 2010 Minnesota Twins

In 2010 the Twins new ballpark will open. This will be a huge day for the Twins shall be getting out of the Metrodome, perhaps the worst baseball ballpark in MLB. The Twins aren’t necessarily rebuilding but they are regrouping, trying to be a World Series caliber team. It’s not a bad idea, most this team is really young especially the core. Only Michael Cuddyer and Joe Nathan are over 27. So the 2008 Twins are kind of like the beta 2010 Twins. Here is what the 2010 Twins might look like on opening day:

C Joe Mauer
1B Justin Morneau
2B Alexi Casilla
SS Trevor Plouffe
3B Danny Valencia
LF Delmon Young
CF Carlos Gomez
RF Michael Cuddyer
DH Jason Kubel

SP Francisco Liriano
SP Scott Baker
SP Kevin Slowey
SP Phil Humber
SP Deolis Guerra

CL Joe Nathan

And the lineup:

CF Gomez
C Mauer
LF Young
1B Morneau
RF Cuddyer
DH Kubel
3B Valencia
SS Plouffe
2B Casilla

All of those guys have great potential. Only Joe Nathan and perhaps Michael Cuddyer have reached their ceiling. Casilla and Gomez could combine for over 100 SB. Mauer/Young/Morneau/Cuddyer/Kubel will be one of the best middle of the lineup combinations. Valencia and Plouffe have great offensive potential as well. Valencia will be the best Twins 3B since Koskie and Plouffe will have the most extra-base hits for a Twins shortstop in a long long time.


And the rotation, well it could be amazing. Liriano could end up being the best pitcher on the planet (yes, better than Santana), Baker has the potential to rack up high strikeout totals and low walks issued, Slowey reminds many of Greg Maddux and Brad Radke due to his command and deception, Humber was the #3 pick in his draft for a reason, and Deolis Guerra should be ready for the rotation around this time and will help anchor the top of the rotation for a very long time.

This post comes at a bad time. 2008 just started, I know. The Twins could be very good this year. But they are more likely to disappoint. So if the season gets to be rough then we can just look 2 years to the future and therein lies great hope and potential.

Roster Moves

The following players were optioned to Rochester today:
RHP Phil Humber
OF Denard Span
OF Jason Pridie
IF Brian Buscher

All four of these guys had a decent chance at making the team. With both Span and Pridie being sent down this means that Carlos Gomez won the center field position. Gomez definitely is the most talented out of the three. Pridie, Span, and Gomez all had great springs. I wouldn’t have minded seeing Span being the CF for the first two months to delay free agency for Gomez for another year. Denard Span really has to be depressed today. Ever since he was drafted he had been heralded as the guy to replace Torii Hunter and now it appears that he will never get a shot at it.

Basically it boiled down to that Gomez could make a difference on the team right now. He’s really picked up his play over the past couple of weeks. In 15 games he has 10 steals, 1 HR, 4 doubles, 2 triples, and 12 runs while batting .286. Over a full season that projects to 108 steals, 11 HR, 65 doubles, 32 triples, and 194 runs. That is pretty darn good, although not a good projection from such a small sample size. It has been a long time since anybody has stolen more than 100 bases in one season. This dude is going to be a fantastic player. He will turn lots of singles into doubles, and he scores almost every time he gets on base due to his speed. Carlos Gomez is the most exciting everyday Twins player in a long time.

So the 13 position players are set. Here they are:
C - Joe Mauer
Backup C - Mike Redmond
1B - Justin Morneau
2B - Brendan Harris
SS - Adam Everett
3B - Mike Lamb
Backup IF - Nick Punto
Backup IF - Matt Tolbert
LF - Delmon Young
CF - Carlos Gomez
RF - Michael Cuddyer
Backup OF - Craig Monroe
DH - Jason Kubel

Indications are that Francisco Liriano might start off in the minors to get him up to full speed. Here are the 12 pitchers to start the season:

SP Livan Hernandez
SP Scott Baker
SP Boof Bonser
SP Kevin Slowey
SP Nick Blackburn

CL Joe Nathan
RP Pat Neshek
RP Matt Guerrier
RP Dennys Reyes
RP Jesse Crain
RP Juan Rincon
RP Brian Bass

Now Liriano might make the team, that decision hasn’t been made. If he does the Blackburn will be sent down.

Opening Day is next week when the Twins host Torii Hunter and the Los Angeles Angels.

It could be a long season...

So I guess MLB.com thought that the Twins would automatically lose. And I always thought that if you scored 4 runs and they other team had 2 it was counted as a win...

Looking at the Johan Santana Trade: Deolis Guerra

Deolis Guerra
Starter
Born: 4/89
Throws: Right

YEAR LV G GS ERA IP H HR SO BB
2006 A- 17 17 2.20 81.2 59 3 64 37
2007 A+ 21 20 4.01 89.2 80 9 66 25

Deolis Guerra was signed out of Venezuela for a $700,000 bonus as a 16-year-old in 2005. He is a stocky, 6-foot-5 right-hander who wont be 21 until the middle of 2010. He had his debut shortly after his 17th birthday and started his first game at high Single-A last season before turning 18. He was the lone teenage pitcher in the entire league and the average hitter he faced was 23 years old. His numbers plus the age difference is very impressive.

Since his 2006 debut, Guerra has a 3.27 ERA, 135-to-65 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and a .228 opponent's batting average in 178.2 innings. Those numbers are fantastic for someone who's faced advanced competition at such a young age. It is very understandable why the Twins wanted him as one of the centerpieces in the Johan Santana trade.

Guerra can throw in the mid-90s. and being so large and young he should be able to develop a big-time fastball. Guerra's changeup is reportedly his best pitch. Guerra has the highest ceiling as anyone in the Twins system. He could end up the Santana trade look great if he turns out the way people think he might. But young pitchers face numerous obstacles and are far from a sure thing. If Guerra turns out to be nothing then more pressure is on Carlos Gomez and one of Kevin Mulvey or Philip Humber to meet expectations for the Twins to have received a good haul in the Santana trade.

Looking at the Johan Santana trade: Philip Humber

Philip Humber
Starting Pitcher
Throws: Right
Age: 25

YEAR Level G GS ERA IP H HR SO BB
2005 A+ 14 14 4.99 70.1 74 6 65 18
2006 A+ 7 7 2.37 38.0 24 4 36 9
AA 6 6 2.88 34.1 25 4 36 10
2007 AAA 25 25 4.27 139.0 129 21 120 44

Humber was selected by the Mets with the third overall pick in the 2004 draft. Humber pitched just 15 starts into his pro career when he suffered a major arm injury, so he had to have Tommy John elbow surgery in mid-2005.

He pitched again the next year, he had a 2.83 ERA, 79-to-20 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and .199 opponent's batting average in 76.1 innings between high Single-A and Double-A. The problem was that his fastball lost a lot of it’s velocity and it hurt him a lot the next year. Humber had a 4.27 ERA in 25 starts at Triple-A, striking out just 120 batters in 139 innings while giving up 21 homers.

It seems that Humber will be a mid-rotation starter, not the ace the Mets thought they were drafting. He has an excellent curveball but his fastball no longer overpowers hitters. Humber was one of four players the Twins received for Santana, although he was once considered untouchable. His stock has fallen, and I doubt he could end up being the ace everyone thought he could be. In fact he might end up in the bullpen if he doesn’t pan out as a starter, since the Twins have tons of pitching prospects who should be ready soon. But being in the bullpen he still could be valuable, and the Twins always produce one of the best bullpens in the majors. So Humber might be the least valuable player the Twins received in the Santana trade. Had they made this trade two or three years ago he would have been the best player in the package but his stock has dropped a bit.

Looking at the Johan Santana trade: Kevin Mulvey

Kevin Mulvey
Starting Pitcher
Throws: Right
Age: 22

YEAR Level G GS ERA IP H HR SO BB
2007 AA 26 26 3.32 151.2 145 4 110 43

Mulvey was selected by the Mets in the second round of the 2006 draft, Mulvey went right to Double-A after signing with the Mets and had a 1.35 ERA in three starts. Last year in AA, Mulvey had a 3.32 ERA and 110-to-43 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 151.2 innings. Mulvey was chosen as the Mets organization’s Minor League Pitcher of the Year.

He should be ready to join the Twins this year. He projects to be a mid-rotation starter, although he doesn’t have great strikeout totals. He keeps the ball in the park, hitters only have hit five homers off of him in 173 innings. Mulvey is very effective against right-handed batters, they only hit .224 off of him with a .275 slugging % and 274 OPS.

I like Mulvey a lot. He is probably the most overlooked player received in exchange for Johan Santana. Phil Humber has the biggest name, Deolis Guerra has the most upside, but Mulvey might end up being the best pitcher that the Twins received in exchange for Johan Santana. He could fill the #3 or #4 slot in the rotation for a while.

Johan Santana

The #1 question facing the Minnesota Twins and perhaps all of baseball is if, when, and to who Johan Santana will be traded. The rumors have been swirling for months, before the winter meetings started. It has been quiet on the Red Sox and Yankees front since the winter meetings. The Red Sox wish to center a trade around CF Jacoby Ellsbury, SS Jed Lowrie, and SP Justin Masterson, or a different package which substitutes CF Coco Crisp and SP Jon Lester instead of playoff hero Ellsbury. The Yankees have an offer of SP Phil Hughes and CF Melky Cabrera. The Mets have suddenly popped up in discussions and are the front runners now with an offer of SP Deolis Guerra, CF Carlos Gomez, SP Kevin Mulvey, and SP Philip Humber. If they add the Dominican outfield prospect Fernando Martinez, they will likely be the winners in the Santana sweepstakes.
All the offers are solid but I don't think the Twins should take one yet becaue the other teams should offer more. Santana is the best pitcher on the planet, and it's not even close. The Red Sox could package Lester and Ellsbury together, or offer Clay Buchholz. The Yankees could add Robison Cano or Joba Chamberlain or Ian Kennedy, and the Mets, as previously mentioned need to add Fernando Martinez. The thing I don't get is why these teams are so afraid to part with these prospects. Sure, they will probably turn into solid baseball players, perhaps All-Stars, but do any of these guys have even a chance of turning into a Johan Santana type player? I think not. Sure he will cost more money than any other pitcher in history AND some top of the line prospects but he will definitely be worth it. This is the best pitcher on the planet we are talking about.