What can't Mauer do?

Joe Mauer has accepted the invitation to participate in the home run derby. Admit it, you'll be surprised if he doesn't win. Here is a Yahoo article about Mauer being great at everything he does. My favorite part is the bowling story.

Joe Mauer on Sports Illustrated cover

SI Article

Mauer makes his second Sports Illustrated cover. It is a good read.

Punto on DL, Casilla called up

The words "Punto" and "DL" go good together. And I've always liked Alexi Casilla. So I'm glad to see that after tonight's game that Casilla was called up to replace Nick Punto who was placed on the DL.

I've always been extremely opposed to Nick Punto taking up a roster spot. The reason is that his bat belongs nowhere near the big leagues. In 2006 he received 472 at bats, and hit .210/.291/.271, good enough for one of the worst offensive seasons ever for a player with that many at-bats. So far this season he has been even worse in 123 at-bats. He is "hitting" .187/.290/.211. It's never good to see a batting average below .200, it's worse to see an on-base percentage below .300, and it's even worse when you have that low of an on-base percentage and have a slugging percentage nearly .80 lower than the on-base percentage. Oh, did I mention that he only has 3 extra base hits this season?

Ok I admit Alexi Casilla was terrible with the Twins earlier this year. But it seems like he has been getting back on track at AAA Rochester with a much better line of .316/.353/.392. He was a huge piece for the Twins last year and we need another boost from him again so that we actually get something from the middle infield.

It sounds like Casilla will take over second base and Brendan Harris will be the shortstop with Matt Tolbert the backup. It's about time Tolbert be forced into a backup position, it is where he belongs. If Casilla can turn things around and Harris can hold off Punto and Tolbert for the last starting infield spot (not likely with Gardenhire's sickening love for Punto and Tolbert) then the Twins lineup will be very solid:

LF Denard Span
C Joe Mauer
1B Justin Morneau
RF Michael Cuddyer
DH Jason Kubel
3B Joe Crede
SS Brendan Harris
CF Carlos Gomez
2B Alexi Casilla

Swarzaked

Anthony Swarzak pitched a great major league debut for the Twins. I'll take 7 innings and 0 runs anytime. Swarzak is the first Twin pitcher in history to pitch 7 shutout innings in their first major league start. That is very impressive. I'm sure he won't be in the rotation when Perkins returns, but he might be sent to the bullpen. It is nice knowing that there is another quality young starting pitcher available if needed. I wonder if the Twins would ever trade one of their young starting pitchers... I'd trade Perkins or Blackburn for a great young shortstop or second baseman, but not a third baseman. Even though Joe Crede is only signed for this year, I'm not worried about the future of third base for the Twins. Their top prospect in the upper levels of the minors is 3B Danny Valencia. He is killing the ball at AA right now, and I'm sure I'll do an article on him in the next few days...

The other story of the game was Joe Mauer, hitting his 9th home run of the year, matching his home run total from last year in just 21 games. No doubt, this guy has been the best hitter in baseball this month. It sure is fun to see him hitting .429, getting on-base .516% of the time and slugging .844. Those are just sick numbers! He's on pace for 60 homers and 185 RBI's. I know he's not likely to keep that pace up for the whole season, but if he did, he would have the greatest non-steroid offensive season of all-time. At his pace he could hit over .400, break Roger Maris pre-steroid HR mark of 61, and win the triple crown. I know that is extremely unlikely and premature, but it is fun to dream. And the kid is just 26.

It has been great to see Michael Cuddyer return to form. The guy is just locked in. Hits for the cycle last night, and now is second on the team with 30 RBI. Plus 7 homers. It has been great to have a right-handed power bat in the lineup, especially since Delmon Young isn't developing the power we'd hoped to have seen from him at this point.

At this point Mauer and Morneau have to be the best 1-2 punch in the majors. And Span, Mauer, Morneau, Kubel, and Cuddyer form a nice little offensive juggernaut. And Crede is not a bad guy to have at #6 with his seven homers. Now if the bottom third of the lineup would just start hitting, the Twins would have an amazing lineup all the way through. But it needs to start with Delmon Young. He should return to the lineup today, and I hope he starts heating up now. He usually starts off the season slowly, so hopefully he is past that now.

Twins destroy White Sox 20-1

I think the box score speaks for itself today. Joe Mauer has a ridiculous 1.319 OPS. Not to mention 8 home runs in 19 games. If he keeps this pace up, he will be the AL MVP. Also, Michael Cuddaver seems to have woken up and he is on track to have a season similar to his remarkable 2006 year.

The batting order seems like a silly thing to talk about while the pitching on this team has been so horrendous. But we'll do so anyways. The biggest problem with Gardy's batting order has been the #2 spot. Probably 90% or more of the at-bats there this season have been filled by the likes of Alexi Casilla and Matt Tolbert, who were both hitting under the Mendoza line. This is obviously not what you want from your #2 hitter. You want someone who gets on base at a 35 or 40 percent clip, so that the heart of your order has runs to drive in. A little speed/good baserunning skills is a good thing to have as well. This is probably the perfect spot to slot in Joe Mauer. (Although now that he is hammering homers every other day, he is a great #3 hitter as well.) Gardenhire might have figured that out today, and he plugged Mauer into the #2 spot, and just like magic the Twins go off for 20 runs. Now of course nobody scores 20 runs a game, but I think it would help the offense run a little better. Here is my preferred lineup to maximize run scoring potential:

CF Span
C Mauer
1B Morneau
DH Kubel
RF Cuddyer
3B Crede
LF Young
2B Tolbert
SS Harris

I chose Harris over Tolbert in the 9th spot because they both see roughly the same amount of at-bats, but I think it's preferrable to have your worst hitter in the 8th spot rather than the 9th. The reason is that the 9th guy isn't that far away from your power hitters, so why would you want an automatic out 2 batters before Mauer, Morneau, and Kubel come up?

Another decent reason to shift up Mauer, Morneau, and Kubel up one spot is that they will receive a slight increase of at-bats, being a little closer to the top of the order.

Anyways, batting orders are largely overrated, but there are a few things you can easily avoid that can plague your lineup. Perhaps Gardenhire has figured out that one of them is don't place an automatic out in the lineup right before your best hitters come to bat.

Projected HR Totals

From ESPN statistics, here are what their projected home run totals are for the Twins:

52 - Joe Mauer
50 - Justin Morneau
27 - Joe Crede
22 - Jason Kubel
17 - Michael Cuddyer
11 - Brendan Harris
8 - Denard Span
8 - Brian Buscher
6 - Delmon Young
0 - Carlos Gomez
0 - Nick Punto
0 - Matt Tolbert
0 - Mike Redmond

And time to redo my predictions:
Justin Morneau - 38
Joe Mauer - 34
Jason Kubel - 26
Joe Crede - 22
Michael Cuddyer - 18
Delmon Young - 13
Carlos Gomez - 10
Brendan Harris - 9
Denard Span - 7
Brian Buscher - 6
Alexi Casilla - 4
Nick Punto - 1
Matt Tolbert - 1
Mike Redmond - 0

Mauer Pauer

First off, if you haven't seen the replay of Joe Mauer's 9th inning play yesterday, do yourself a favor and go check it out. It's currently the primary video at minnesotatwins.com I'm pretty sure that Mauer is the only catcher who could have done that and it will go down as one of his best defensive plays.

Anyways about this Mauer guy. 6 home runs already?! He is already 2/3 of the way to his total last year (9) despite only having 56 at-bats, and is on pace to hit 56 home runs and 148 RBI for the season. Will he keep it up? Not likely. But I don't think he will regress to be just a 10-15 HR guy. I think he is evolving into a player that hits home runs somewhere in the 20's and 30's. It's tough to say at this point of course. But adding power to his game certainly isn't out of the question. Oh, did I mention that he is hitting .429, with an on-base percentage of .529 and slugging .804! Ridiculous! The guy would be leading the league in virtually every offensive category if he only had enough at-bats.

The Twins must lock this guy up. Everyone knows that his contract goes through 2010. I can't even imagine the market for him if he ever becomes a free-agent. It doesn't help that the Yankees and Red Sox catchers are old and beat up. He'd be able to sign one of, if not the biggest contracts ever. I'm sure the Twins will lock him up before then, and Mauer will want to stay in his hometown state. But I'd sign him to a 7 or 8 year deal asap. His price is already skyrocketing.

The value of Joe Mauer

Sounds like Joe Mauer will return soon, May 1 would be a good bet.  The Twins haven't been spectacular thus far, but they could have done a lot worse than 7-7 without Joe Mauer.  Perhaps the absence of Joe Mauer has made people realize just how valuable he is to the Twins.  He is the heart of the Twins offense and defense.  Mauer is perhaps more valuable to his team than any other player in all of baseball.  He is simply irreplaceable.  Catchers who get on base 40% of the time and who have gold-glove defense and who throw base stealers out 40% of the time, don't grow on trees.  I don't think Mike Redmond and Jose Morales have thrown out a single base stealer this year. 

Justin Morneau has already won an MVP and finished second another time, so it's safe to say that many consider Morneau as the Twins MVP.  But Joe Mauer should have won the MVP both those years.  The problem is that he isn't a 30 HR hitter and his RBI numbers don't look pretty.  But he is always in the top 3 in on-base percentage, he takes extremely good at-bats, and he's the only American League catcher to win a batting title (and he's done it twice!) .  Honestly, Joe Mauer has a great shot of not only making it to the Hall of Fame, but as being the best catcher ever.

I'm not sure how much of an effect a catcher has on how a pitcher pitches, but it will be interesting to see if the pitching improves with Mauer back behind the plate.

Joe Mauer is signed through 2010, and I am hoping the Twins will give him a contract extension before he becomes a free-agent.  I'm sure the Twins would pay him gobs of money (which they should have due to a new ballpark), because he is the face of the franchise and he is Minnesotan.  He practically is Mr. Minnesota.  But I'd hate to see what would happen if he did reach free agency and the Yankees or Red Sox offered him a 7 year contract which would pay him $25 million a year...

Jason Kubel - Twins Cleanup Hitter

Wow I just watched another incredible Twins victory! They might not have a lot of wins so far this season but they have already had 3 incredibly memorable ones.

Tonight Jason Kubel hit for the cycle and hit a grand slam HR to complete the cycle in the 8th and put the Twins up 11-9. That was exciting! Kubel was an extremely well-regarded prospect, some saying he was as great of a hitter as Mauer and Morneau, plus he played good outfield defense. But a knee injury a few years ago in the fall really hurt him and the next few years he regained strength but never really got back to his old level. People have been picking him to breakout for a few years now, and this might be the year it happens. I hope he is the everyday DH from here on out. Mauer and Morneau are the two best hitters and Kubel and Span are easily the next two best. I wonder how much longer people will pitch to Morneau to get to Kubel (which is what happened before the grand slam.) I think Morneau will start to see better pitches and he too will have better numbers. When Mauer gets back I'd love to see the top 4 of the batting order go Span/Mauer/Morneau/Kubel. I think batting orders are overrated but I do think it is important to get your best players more at-bats than anybody else and sticking them at the top of the order is the best way to do it. Plus Span and Mauer get on-base around 40% of the time, which creates excellent RBI opportunities for Kubel and Morneau.

Ranking the Twins position players

Note: These rankings take into account offense AND defense. These aren't necessarily based off numbers. This is how I'd rank their value for the next few months:

1. Mauer - Arguably more valuable to the Twins than any other player is to his team in the majors.
2. Morneau - I'd hate to imagine where the Twins would be without his bat.
3. Span - Gets on base at a great rate, has gold glove defense at all three outfield positions.
4. Kubel - Has great bat, but Span's defense is much better.
5. Cuddyer - The next five could be ranked in almost any order. Cuddyer is a nice right-handed bat with a great arm.
6. Crede - Superb defense, with some nice pop in the bat, although he could get on base at a better clip.
7. Casilla - Has developed into a superb #2 hitter, and I love his range at 2B, although he still makes silly mistakes.
8. Gomez - If his new plate approach develops him into a more patient hitter and he develops a bit more power, he easily cracks into the top five, as he is already the best defensive outfielder in the majors.
9. Young - Don't know where to stick this guy. I'd love to stick him at #3 on this list as that is where his potential is. Still is very young for the majors, we'll see how this season turns out.
10. Punto - He is better than I give him credit for, defense is great, although very over-rated.
11. Harris - Decent bat, can play all over the infield, although not very well.
12. Redmond - One of the best backup catchers in the majors hands-down.
13. Buscher - I really like his bat, his defense is likely why the Twins signed Crede.

Predicting home run totals

Last season the Twins only hit 111 home runs while their opponents hit 183 against them. Only two players on the Twins hit more than 20(Morneau and Kubel) and only one more hit in double digits (Young). That said, I believe the Twins will show much more power this year. Getting Cuddyer back is one reason, adding Joe Crede is another. A full season for players like Denard Span and Alexi Casilla should help their numbers. Getting better/older/wiser should mean improvements for Carlos Gomez and Delmon Young. Getting LASIK-eye surgery and talking to Harmon Killebrew should hopefully lead to improved totals for Justin Morneau(not to mention better protection for him in the lineup.)

Here is my predicted home run totals for the Twins:
Justin Morneau - 34
Jason Kubel - 30
Joe Crede - 24
Michael Cuddyer - 22
Delmon Young - 21
Carlos Gomez - 16
Denard Span - 13
Alexi Casilla - 12
Joe Mauer - 12 (If Mauer hit for 25-30 HR a year, he'd be the best catcher in history)
Brendan Harris - 6
Brian Buscher - 6
Nick Punto - 2
Mike Redmond - 0

Chances are at the end of the season, I'll look silly for those predictions. The Twins never hit for that much power. But this year just feels a little different...

Why the Twins should sign Crede

The Twins have been mentioned in connection with 3B Joe Crede. I'm hoping the Twins sign Crede and here is why. Of course the Twins would survive without him and they have Buscher and Harris who can play 3B. But Crede would give the Twins better defense at 3B and he would allow Harris to back-up Casilla and Punto should one of them slump or get hurt. Crede would also add a nice right-handed bat with home run power. Crede was an all-star last year, and he also hit 30 HR in '06. Sure he's been hurt but he's willing to take a one year deal, and so even if he is a bust, he wouldn't hurt the Twins, who have cash to burn. It sounds like if the Twins want Crede, they can have him, as their main competetor, the San Francisco Giants, have dropped out of the running.
Check out the potential lineup with Crede in it:
CF Span
2B Casilla
C Mauer
1B Morneau
3B Crede
LF Cuddyer
DH Kubel
RF Young
SS Harris

Make it happen Bill Smith.

Why the Minnesota Twins will be the 2009 AL Central Champs

I could write about how bad the Jazz will be while Boozer and Kirilenko are out, but I don't want to write it and you don't want to read it. All these injuries that the Jazz are having is making me look forward to baseball opening day even more.

You can bet that there will be much more Twins player-by-player analysis/projections/outlooks on this blog as opening day approaches. For now we will take a quick glance at why the Twins have as good a shot as anybody to win the AL Central this year.

1. They won't have any innings pitched by Livan Hernandez. Those innings will be taken over by a full season of a healthy, confident Francisco Liriano, who looks to win his first AL Cy Young. The rest of the young rotation stays the same, a rotation that was responsible for much of the 2008 success.

2. No at-bats from Craig Monroe, Mike Lamb, or Adam Everett. Those guys were black-holes last season. The Twins haven't signed a big bat, but Jason Kubel, Brian Buscher, and Brendan Harris will likely put up better numbers than those other three did last year.

3. The bullpen should be better this year. Again they haven't brought anybody new, but Jose Mijares should take over the 8th inning role nicely, setting up for one of the best closers in the game, Joe Nathan. Jesse Crain is one more year removed from that cuff surgery and he should be better, and Boof Bonser could be a force in the bullpen now that he is getting adjusted to not starting.

4. They will have a full season from Michael Cuddyer and Denard Span. Span was a key cog for the 2nd half of 2008. Cuddyer was the valuable cleanup hitter for the great 2006 year.

5. Delmon Young and Carlos Gomez will be one year older and wiser too. These guys were two of the youngest players in the majors last year. Young especially should be much better this year. They will only get better with time, and could turn into big-time stars.

6. Out of the other competetors only the Indians got better. The White Sox traded or didn't resign a lot of key guys from their team. The Tigers are old. The Indians won't have Sabathia this year, Cliff Lee won't repeat the success he had from last season, they did sign and trade for guys like DeRosa and Kerry Wood, but they lost others like Casey Blake.

7. They re-signed Nick Punto. Ok that one is a joke. But the Twins are so young, and most these guys will get better. Not too many of them have hit their prime yet. It should be an exciting season, as long as injuries don't ravage them. But a blow to Joe Mauer, or Justin Morneau, or a couple of staff members like Kevin Slowey and Scott Baker and all bets are off. I hope I didn't just jinx them.

Projected 2009 value of Twins roster

It looks like the Twins are content to go into 2009 with virtually the same team that they had in 2008. I can't necessarily disagree with the decision. Bill Smith has not shown to have much talent in signing free-agents or making good trades. In his first year at the helm he signed Mike Lamb, Adam Everett, and Livan Hernandez, and traded for Craig Monroe, Delmon Young, Brendan Harris, and Carlos Gomez, while giving up Johan Santana, Matt Garza, and Jason Bartlett. It is not crazy to think that the Twins would have made the World Series if he hadn't made those moves. The Twins clear strength is in drafting/developing players, especially pitching, and trading for other teams minor-leaguers such as Santana, Liriano, Bartlett, Casilla, etc.

Also it seems that the Twins would like to improve at 3B or SS or their bullpen but teams asking prices have been too high. Would you give up Denard Span and Kevin Slowey plus a good prospect just for Rockies 3B Garrett Atkins? I wouldn't. Would you give up Francisco Liriano and Delmon Young for one year of Mariners 3B Adrian Beltre? I wouldn't. It seems the Twins have been looking for help, but the other teams want a ridiculous amount of talent from the Twins. And remember the Twins have one of the youngest teams in the majors. Think about all the young stars that emerged last season. The future is bright and without further ado I'd like to rank from most valuable to least valuable I think each player will be to the Twins in 2009, the final year of the Metrodome.

Joe Mauer
Francisco Liriano
Justin Morneau
Scott Baker
Joe Nathan
Kevin Slowey
Denard Span
Delmon Young
Jason Kubel
Nick Blackburn
Michael Cuddyer
Glen Perkins
Jose Mijares
Carlos Gomez
Boof Bonser
Brendan Harris
Nick Punto
Brian Buscher
Craig Breslow
Jesse Crain
Mike Redmond
Matt Guerrier
Matt Tolbert
Jason Pridie
Phil Humber

Twins in the World Baseball Classic

With the 2nd World Baseball coming up in a few months it is time to wonder which Twins will participate. Last time I seem to remember both Liriano and Santana pitched for their countries and I don't remember anybody else going, maybe Dennys Reyes and Luis Castillo?

As for this year here are some possibilities:
Justin Morneau - Canada (Already confirmed)
Jesse Crain - Canada

USA:
Joe Mauer
Joe Nathan

Dominican Republic:
Francisco Liriano
Alexi Casilla
Carlos Gomez

Australia:
Luke Hughes (Twins AAA 3B)

Venezuela:
Jose Mijares

I'm probably missing some others but those are ones that come off the top of my head. It will be interesting to see what kind of participation the WBC gets from the MLB players and how the rosters turn out. Japan won last year and anything can happen since most of it just depends on a couple of games but I'm sure once again the four favorites will be the Americans, Dominicans, Cubans, and Japanese with Venezuela and Puerto Rico also making things interesting. Canada and Mexico could be spoilers but unlikely to win it all.

2 players to be thankful for

Morneau 2nd, Mauer 4th in AL MVP

I am disappointed but not shocked. Today Dustin Pedroia of the Boston Red Sox won the AL MVP. Morneau finished 2nd and Mauer finished 4th. Had Morneau not batted .146 over the last 16 games, he likely would have won it. Or had the Twins made the playoffs he likely would have won it. Really just a few things change and Morneau wins it. However, Joe Mauer would be my pick for the MVP. Sadly I doubt he will ever win it because of his low home run totals. I would go into deep statistical analysis to prove my pick but I dont have time. But here is one stat to chew on: Mauer led the league in Win Probability Added… which means he was the most clutch hitter in the league when the game counted. Rob Neyer agrees with my pick for the MVP: http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=3710934&name=Neyer_Rob

Morneau had 257 points and Mauer received 188. Pedroia won with 317. Morneau had 7 first place votes, while Mauer received 2. Honestly I think the awards are overrated and the people who vote for them don't put much thought into it, or who only vote based on their opinion and don't back it up with important stats and information. I mean, how did one voter leave Pedroia off the vote completely?? How did Jason Bartlett get a 5th place vote??? How did Francisco Rodriguez, who wasn't even the best AL closer, get a first place vote?? How did Torii Hunter win another gold glove award? And worst of all, how did some voters vote for Edison Volquez for NL Rookie if the Year when he wasn't even a rookie!?!?

Postseason awards are starting to become something that don't really matter, they are becoming a joke.

Silver Sluggers for Mauer, Morneau

Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer both won their second career Silver Slugger awards. This is an award given to the best hitters in each league at each position. The winners are determined by a vote from coaches and managers. Both won the award in 2006 also.

Mauer now has a Gold Glove, 2 AL Batting Titles, 2 Silver Sluggers, and a couple of All-Star appearances.

Morneau has 2 Silver Sluggers, a Home Run Derby crown, 2 All-Star appearances, and an MVP award, and is in the running for AL MVP this year as well.

The winners in the American League were:

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Catcher:Joe Mauer, Twins
First base:Justin Morneau, Twins
Second base:Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox
Third base: Alex Rodriguez, Yankees
Shortstop:Derek Jeter, Yankees
Outfield: Josh Hamilton, Rangers
Outfield:Carlos Quentin, White Sox
Outfield:Grady Sizemore, Indians
Designated hitter: Aubrey Huff, Orioles

Joe Mauer wins first Gold Glove

Joe Mauer won his first Gold Glove Award today. He is the first Twins catcher to receive a gold glove since 1962 (Earl Battey).

Mauer had a .997 fielding percentage. He only committed three errors and he threw out 18 base runners.

He also helped guide an extremely young pitching staff.

Mauer also won his second batting title this season.

He is the best hitting catcher and the best defensive catcher arguably in the game, and now he has the hardware to back it up. Mauer is only 25 years old and one of, if not the most valuable player in the American League. Being able to provide from both sides of the plate at such a hard position is extremely rare, and Mauer has a chance to go down as the best catcher in history.

Congrats Joe!

Garza for Young revisited

Matt Garza pitched a gem last night, putting the Rays in the World Series for the first time ever.
Twins fans will remember that Matt Garza was drafted, developed, and brought to the major leagues by the Minnesota Twins. In the offseason he was part of a trade that sent him to Tampa in exchange for Delmon Young and others. Delmon Young was rated the top prospect in all of baseball in 2006 and he was the #1 overall pick in the draft as well. He disappointed some with his 2008 campaign. I say to his critics: he was only 22, and those are pretty good numbers for a 22 year old. They were better numbers than Kirby Puckett's at his age.

And usually #1 prospects in all of baseball turn out to be star players. A look at some of the past Basball American top prospects:
2007: Dice K Matsuzaka
2006: Delmon Young
2005:Joe Mauer
2004:Joe Mauer
2003:Mark Teixiera
2002:Josh Beckett
2001:Josh Hamilton
and the list goes on. Come on, Dice K is the worst name on that list and lots of teams would love to have him. Garza is a great talent but if Young lives up to his potential, which he still will have lots of time to do, than the Twins will end up getting the better end of the deal. I remember lots of people complained about Mauer and Morneau's early major league careers. Morneau didn't have amazing numbers until mid-2006, even though he had been in the majors since around 2004.

Repeat: Delmon Young is a special talent and the Twins would be stupid to give up on him so early by trading him away.