Why the Minnesota Twins will be the 2009 AL Central Champs

I could write about how bad the Jazz will be while Boozer and Kirilenko are out, but I don't want to write it and you don't want to read it. All these injuries that the Jazz are having is making me look forward to baseball opening day even more.

You can bet that there will be much more Twins player-by-player analysis/projections/outlooks on this blog as opening day approaches. For now we will take a quick glance at why the Twins have as good a shot as anybody to win the AL Central this year.

1. They won't have any innings pitched by Livan Hernandez. Those innings will be taken over by a full season of a healthy, confident Francisco Liriano, who looks to win his first AL Cy Young. The rest of the young rotation stays the same, a rotation that was responsible for much of the 2008 success.

2. No at-bats from Craig Monroe, Mike Lamb, or Adam Everett. Those guys were black-holes last season. The Twins haven't signed a big bat, but Jason Kubel, Brian Buscher, and Brendan Harris will likely put up better numbers than those other three did last year.

3. The bullpen should be better this year. Again they haven't brought anybody new, but Jose Mijares should take over the 8th inning role nicely, setting up for one of the best closers in the game, Joe Nathan. Jesse Crain is one more year removed from that cuff surgery and he should be better, and Boof Bonser could be a force in the bullpen now that he is getting adjusted to not starting.

4. They will have a full season from Michael Cuddyer and Denard Span. Span was a key cog for the 2nd half of 2008. Cuddyer was the valuable cleanup hitter for the great 2006 year.

5. Delmon Young and Carlos Gomez will be one year older and wiser too. These guys were two of the youngest players in the majors last year. Young especially should be much better this year. They will only get better with time, and could turn into big-time stars.

6. Out of the other competetors only the Indians got better. The White Sox traded or didn't resign a lot of key guys from their team. The Tigers are old. The Indians won't have Sabathia this year, Cliff Lee won't repeat the success he had from last season, they did sign and trade for guys like DeRosa and Kerry Wood, but they lost others like Casey Blake.

7. They re-signed Nick Punto. Ok that one is a joke. But the Twins are so young, and most these guys will get better. Not too many of them have hit their prime yet. It should be an exciting season, as long as injuries don't ravage them. But a blow to Joe Mauer, or Justin Morneau, or a couple of staff members like Kevin Slowey and Scott Baker and all bets are off. I hope I didn't just jinx them.

Cuddyer/Atkins rumors

-The Twins are being pretty quiet at the GM meetings. But on MLBTradeRumors.com they are reporting that the Twins are in discussions with the Rockies about 3B Garrett Atkins.

From Denver via http://blogs.rockymountainnews.com/rockies/archives/2008/11/twins_cuddyer_c.html

"An intriguing name to watch in any Rockies talks about sending third baseman Garrett Atkins to Minnesota is outfielder Michael Cuddyer, who missed 2 1/2 months last season with a strained tendon in his left index finger and has fallen into a backup role because of the emergence of young Twins outfielders."

"The Rockies are looking to add a quality starter in the offseason, and the Twins could offer the likes of Nick Blackburn or Kevin Slowey. But the Rockies would also like to add a right-handed, run-producing hitter in a multiple-player package, which is where Cuddyer, a strong clubhouse presence, would fit."

"The Twins have rebuilt their outfield with Delmon Young in left, Carlos Gomez in center and Denard Span in right."

If they would take Cuddyer for Atkins straight up, I would say do it. It would solve the 5 outfielders for 4 positions problem and the 3B hole/lacking a right-handed power bat with just one trade. I didn't think Cuddyer's trade value was that high. I'd much rather lose Cuddyer than Young or even Span and Gomez. But if the Rockies are asking for Blackburn or Slowey I would say thanks but no thanks.

Atkins plays in the most hitter-friendly park in all of baseball, Coors Field. The thing that scares me about him is his OPS has gone down each of the last seasons.
2006 OPS: .965, 2007: .853, 2008: .780.
HR 2006: 29, 2007:25, 2008:21.
RBI 2006: 120, 2007:111, 2008:99
On Base Percentage: 2006: .409, 2007: .367, 2008: .328

He is only 28 years old and his salary is in the $4 million range. I don't know everything about him, but I know he is a good hitting third-baseman, although the downward slope he is on scares me. Still he is a better option than Brian Buscher or Brendan Harris.

Trade Targets: Adrian Beltre

Adrian Beltre should be one of the Twins top trade targets this offseason. Brian Buscher was alright last year but he had terrible defense. A Buscher/Harris platoon would be ok but certainly not ideal. Danny Valencia is one of the Twins top prospects in the minor leagues but he probably won't be major league ready for a year. He should be the Twins 3B of the future starting in 2010. But the Twins know they are contenders to make the playoffs in 2009, and they'd like a good 3B.

Adrian Beltre fits the bill. We know the Twins tried to get him at the trade deadline this year, but the Mariners were demanding one of the Twins young starting pitchers. Beltre only has one year left on his contract so he should be a one-year rental, hence dropping his trade value. Plus Beltre KILLS the ball in contract years. In 2004 he was also in the last year of his contract. He hit 48 home runs, 121, RBI, .334 BA, .388 OBP, .629! SLG PCT, and the list goes on and on. Not to mention he plays gold-glove caliber defense and he is a right-handed bat. Think of the damage he could do batting in the Twins lineup with Mauer and Morneau!

The other benefit is that after he leaves the Twins for free agency in 2010, then the Twins will receive 2 first round supplimentary draft picks, a nice bonus, not to mention his $13 million dollar salary off the books. Then Danny Valencia would be ready to step in as the new Twins 3B.

Really it is a perfect fit. Unfortunately the Twins tried to get him in 2008 already and balked at the price tag. The money isn't the issue it's what the Mariners want in return. Now the Mariners are looking for a new general manager, and hopefully the new one won't be as stubborn. The Mariners need starting pitching. The Twins have lots of major-league ready pitching at AAA. I really don't think they should trade Liriano, Baker, Slowey, Blackburn, or Perkins for just one year of Beltre. But if they could throw in some top prospect pitchers then the Mariners might bite. If they need a 3B, Buscher could be included. If they have to trade one of their young, cheap MLB pitchers I would give them only Nick Blackburn. But the Twins likely won't do that.

Mariners get: RHP Anthony Swarzak, RHP Brian Duensing, 3B Brian Buscher
Twins get: 1 year of 3B Adrian Beltre

New lineup:

CF Span
2B Casilla
C Mauer
3B Beltre
1B Morneau
LF Cuddyer
DH Kubel
RF Young
SS Harris


Probability of Twins trading for Beltre: 31%

Hanging By a Thread

The Twins stand 2.5 games out of first (3 games back in the loss column). The White Sox take on the Royals and the Twins play at the Rays. It's Slowey vs Kazmir. The Twins really need a win and a Sox loss to stay alive. Luckily Slowey was injured earlier in the year and isn't at such a high innings pitched number as Blackburn and Perkins who seem to have pitched too much.

Twins Notes

-Carlos Gomez has 25 bunt singles this year. He has more bunt singles than any other team in the major leagues. Houston has 24 on the year. The Twins lead the majors with 50 bunt singles. Gomez, Span, and Casilla are some of the fastest players in baseball.

-Scouts have been saying that Justin Morneau has the potential to become one of the greatest players ever to play baseball. Since July 7, Morneau has hit safely in 17 of 20 games, is batting .380 with 10 doubles, 17 runs, 17 walks, six home runs and 21 RBI. In those 20 games, he has a .494 on-base percentage and a .775 slugging percentage. In the Chicago series, Morneau hit .357 with two homers and 10 RBI. He was 1-for-4 with a three-run homer in the fifth inning in last Thursday night's 10-6 victory over Chicago.

-Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, and Glen Perkins could be the Minnesota Twins starting five for years to come. The young 5 man rotation is the envy of the league. It reminds me of what Atlanta assembled in the early 90's with Glavine, Smoltz, Avery, and Maddux.

Liriano had a 2.16 ERA in 2006, Blackburn has a 3.56 ERA, Baker -3.86, Slowey - 4.21, Perkins - 4.38. They are all 26 or younger. Liriano is still just 24. Just imagine if the Twins had kept Santana and Garza... Santana/Liriano/Garza/Baker/Blackburn would be the best rotation in the majors.

Names

Kevin Slowey pitched a complete game, shutout against the White Sox last night. That led me to thinking how unfortunate a name "Slowey" is for a pitcher. I don't know which is worse, "Slowey" or "Balfour" as in Grant Balfour, former Twins pitcher who plays for the Rays now.
Here are some Twins with great names:
Boof Bonser
Shooter Hunt (Named after the drunk in Hoosiers)
Anthony Slama (He's a closer, he slams the door shut on the other team)


Other MLB players:
Coco Crisp
Milton Bradley
Tim Spooneybarger
Razor Shines

A look ahead: 2010 Minnesota Twins

In 2010 the Twins new ballpark will open. This will be a huge day for the Twins shall be getting out of the Metrodome, perhaps the worst baseball ballpark in MLB. The Twins aren’t necessarily rebuilding but they are regrouping, trying to be a World Series caliber team. It’s not a bad idea, most this team is really young especially the core. Only Michael Cuddyer and Joe Nathan are over 27. So the 2008 Twins are kind of like the beta 2010 Twins. Here is what the 2010 Twins might look like on opening day:

C Joe Mauer
1B Justin Morneau
2B Alexi Casilla
SS Trevor Plouffe
3B Danny Valencia
LF Delmon Young
CF Carlos Gomez
RF Michael Cuddyer
DH Jason Kubel

SP Francisco Liriano
SP Scott Baker
SP Kevin Slowey
SP Phil Humber
SP Deolis Guerra

CL Joe Nathan

And the lineup:

CF Gomez
C Mauer
LF Young
1B Morneau
RF Cuddyer
DH Kubel
3B Valencia
SS Plouffe
2B Casilla

All of those guys have great potential. Only Joe Nathan and perhaps Michael Cuddyer have reached their ceiling. Casilla and Gomez could combine for over 100 SB. Mauer/Young/Morneau/Cuddyer/Kubel will be one of the best middle of the lineup combinations. Valencia and Plouffe have great offensive potential as well. Valencia will be the best Twins 3B since Koskie and Plouffe will have the most extra-base hits for a Twins shortstop in a long long time.


And the rotation, well it could be amazing. Liriano could end up being the best pitcher on the planet (yes, better than Santana), Baker has the potential to rack up high strikeout totals and low walks issued, Slowey reminds many of Greg Maddux and Brad Radke due to his command and deception, Humber was the #3 pick in his draft for a reason, and Deolis Guerra should be ready for the rotation around this time and will help anchor the top of the rotation for a very long time.

This post comes at a bad time. 2008 just started, I know. The Twins could be very good this year. But they are more likely to disappoint. So if the season gets to be rough then we can just look 2 years to the future and therein lies great hope and potential.

2008 Minnesota Twins

Presenting your 2008 Minnesota Twins


CF Carlos Gomez
This speedy Dominican was acquired from the Mets in the Johan Santana trade. He could eventually be the first player to steal 100+ bases in a season since Rickey Henderson. Faster than Jose Reyes. 5-tool player.

DH Jason Kubel
This should be Kubel’s breakout season. He was once a very highly ranked prospect like Morneau and Mauer before a serious knee injury. He showed lots of potential last season.

C Joe Mauer
2007 was a down year for him. He might not win the batting title this year like in 2006 but look for his power and home run numbers to go up exponentially this year.

LF Delmon Young
The best new member of the Twins is about the best young hitter in the game. The Twins acquired him in the Garza trade. He might put up just as good of numbers as Torii Hunter did last year. This is his second year in the majors.

1B Justin Morneau
He slumped big time in the second half of last year. Before that he was 2nd in the league in most offensive stats. Cracking the 40 home run mark isn’t out of the question for this slugger. He needs to have a big year after signing the biggest contract ever given to a Minnesota Twin.

RF Michael Cuddyer
The best outfield arm in the majors should look to put up solid numbers again this year. Signed an extension with the Twins in the offseason.

3B Mike Lamb
The Twins first REAL 3B sine Corey Koskie. Thank goodness the Twins signed him so we don’t have to put up with another season of Nick Punto. He should surprise a lot of people with his bat, has 20 HR potential although the glove isn’t great.

2B Brendan Harris
Acquired for Jason Bartlett during the offseason. Has better bat than Bartlett and should put up 12 - 15 HR and have one of the best seasons with the bat for the Twins since Knoblauch.

SS Adam Everett
The top defensive player in the majors. His bat is not great, Punto-esque, but he more than makes up for it with his glove.


LHP Francisco Liriano
If he returns to his 2006 form, he will make Twins fans forget Johan Santana quicker. He was pitching better than Santana when he was healthy, but after Tommy-John surgery he is not a guarantee to pitch like before. The closest thing to a Santana clone in the majors.

RHP Scott Baker
Had a great last year topped by a perfect game going into the 9th inning vs the Royals. Should be a solid #2 starter.

RHP Boof Bonser
The Twins need him to step up big. They won’t be as patient as they were with him in 2007. He did lose 20 pounds in the off season and could rebound to be a solid pitcher like he was for much of 2006.

RHP Kevin Slowey
Led the AAA league in ERA and it wasn’t even close. This guy has ridiculous control, he is frequently compared to Brad Radke.

RHP Glen Perkins
Perkins was injured for most of last year. This spot could be taken by Brian Duensing, Nick Blackburn, Phil Humber, or Kevin Mulvey. The Twins also might sign a veteran pitcher to help guide the young pitching staff along.



Bullpen

Closer Joe Nathan
Set-up Pat Neshek
Matt Guerrier
Jesse Crain
Juan Rincon
Dennys Reyes

The Twins return their formidable bullpen from the year before with a healthy Jesse Crain. Nathan might be traded but he still remains the top closer in the game. Neshek and Guerrier are fantastic in the 7th and 8th innings. Reyes could rebound to be unhittable like he was in 2006, and Rincon is pitching better after having a couple of down years. The Twins should once again have one of the top bullpens in the league.


Players Lost

Johan Santana
Torii Hunter
Carlos Silva
Jason Bartlett
Matt Garza
Jason Tyner
Lew Ford
Luis Rodriguez
Matt LeCroy


Players gained
Craig Monroe
Adam Everett
Mike Lamb
Deolis Guerra
Kevin Mulvey
Phil Humber
Delmon Young
Carlos Gomez
Brendan Harris
Zach Day
Livan Hernandez

So what does 2008 hold for the Minnesota Twins? 2007 was a huge disappointment after having one of the most talented Twins teams ever finish third place in the division. Then the Twins lost key players such as Santana, Hunter, Garza, Silva, and Bartlett in the offseason. They did improve their offense with such players as Young, Gomez, Harris, and Lamb. Adding Liriano back to the rotation is huge for the Twins but he is a big question mark after coming off of surgery and missing all of 2007. It is tough to say how the Twins will do in 2008. My guess is that they will score more runs with the new offense, but give up more runs with the loss of Santana, Silva, and Garza.

5 things that will make the Twins still revelant this year:

1. They have the best outfield arms in the majors. Cuddyer was #1 last year and Young was #2. Gomez also has a cannon arm. Teams won’t be trying to take that extra base.

2. Mauer, Morneau, and Young are three of the best young hitters in baseball. Kubel could join that group this year and Cuddyer is solid as well.

3. Their pitching rotation is full of great young pitchers. It could be one of the better young staffs in baseball led by Francisco Liriano who is a potential ace.

4. Joe Nathan leads one of the best bullpens in baseball. If the Twins have the lead going into the 7th inning stretch, they’ll likely keep it.

5. Nick Punto and the piranas are no more. Punto will be sitting on the bench, and Tyner is no longer on the team. Brendan Harris and Mike Lamb are two new infielders who should hit 30 home runs between the two of them. And Kubel should finally be a good DH for the Twins.



5 big problems:

1. The Twins have been a sub .500 team when Santana was not pitching over the past few years. His loss is going to sting.

2. They lost their best hitter from 2007 in Torii Hunter. And his leadership/charisma will be missed as well.

3. Detroit might have the best team in baseball right now and Cleveland isn’t too shabby either. It is a long shot at best to make the playoffs.

4. The Twins didn’t get lots of immediate help from the Santana trade. Carlos Gomez could be very good, or he might his .220 and not be on base enough to steal 40 bases.

5. If the offense continues to fail no help can be found in the minors. Most of the Twins prospects are pitchers and practically all the good hitters are at least down at single A ball. There is not another young Morneau to call up if some people are struggling.

The Good Doctor and Cuddyer

If you had told a Twins fan that the Minnesota Twins had signed a player to a 6 year deal today you would have thought that they were talking about Johan Santana. The Santana question still goes on but today the Twins signed 1B Justin Morneau and RF Michael Cuddyer to 2 big contracts. Morneau's is worth 6 years and $80 million. I am happy about these signings because it shows that the Twins still want to compete. They had just been granted a new ballpark that will open in 2010, and then ownership lets Torii Hunter and Carlos Silva leave, and prepared to trade away the best pitcher in the game, Johan Santana. But now they have signed the 2006 MVP in Justin Morneau and the best right field arm in Michael Cuddyer. Both are homegrown talent and it is nice to see the Twins hold on to them. They signed Joe Mauer to a 4 year deal last year. Now can the Twins resign Santana after showing that they still want to compete now, or will they trade him away? I say at this point keep him, and try to sign him. With Francisco Liriano coming back, Santana/Liriano forms the best 1-2 punch in the game. Here is the potential opening day lineup:

CF Kenny Lofton
DH Jason Kubel
C Joe Mauer
LF Delmon Young
1B Justin Morneau
RF Michael Cuddyer
3B Michael Lamb
2B Brendan Harris
SS Adam Everett

SP Johan Santana
SP Francisco Liriano
SP Scott Baker
SP Boof Bonser
SP Kevin Slowey

Looks pretty solid to me, a team that could definitely make the playoffs.