Morris Almond and Kyrylo Fesenko

What are the Jazz going to do with these two great rookies they have playing in Orem in the D-League? Morris Almond is leading the league in scoring, and he tied the league record with 51 points in one game a few months back, and then a few weeks later he broke his own record with 53 points. He is a great scorer, a great shooting guard. I don’t know how his defense is honestly because I haven’t been able to see him that much. I really need to go to some Utah Flash games, especially since they are so close. Almond was a great draft choice, but just what are the Jazz going to do with him? He is log jammed behind Ronnie Brewer, Kyle Korver, and even C. J. Miles. All three of those guys are quality shooting guards. Lets be realistic. The Jazz can’t keep all four of these guys. I’d say out of the four, Korver is staying because he is a fan favorite and he’s the best three point shooter and free throw shooter on the team. Even Jeff Hornacek things that Korver is a better shooter than he ever was as the Salt Lake Tribune reports:

Kyle Korver knocked down 31 of 34 three-pointers in one of the shooting drills Hornacek had put himself through for years as a player.

"He can shoot better than I can,'' said Hornacek, a 40.3 percent career three-point shooter whose No. 14 was retired by the Jazz in November 2002. "He can light it up." Watching Korver go through the drill, Hornacek said, "I was like, 'Holy crap.' "

But Almond seems to be more like Korver than Brewer and Miles, which lessens his value to the team. Brewer is having a breakout season and provides great defense and a great slashing and inside game. Miles is a good shooter and plays a good all-round game as well. He is also very young. In fact I think both Brewer and Miles are younger than Almond. But my guess is Miles will be the first to go. Korver is locked up until the end of 2011. Miles can sign with any team this year. It will be interesting to see how this all turns out, but Morris Almond can’t be ignored by the Jazz for much longer than after this season.

Now Fesenko should step in and take over Collins role after his contract is up next season. Fesenko will be a beast and the inside presence the Jazz have been looking for since Mark Eaton. He is still raw but that is what the D-League is for. With Okur, Fesenko, Boozer, Millsap, and Kirilenko the Jazz will have one of the very best front lines in the whole NBA. Hen isn’t as for sure as Almond is but Fesenko has tons of potential. I’m excited to watch the future of these two “young rookies” as Hot Rod would say.

Boy, the Jazz done well with their draft the past few years. Williams in 2005, Millsap and Brewer in 2006 and Almond and Fesenko in 2007. It is good to see this after a few interesting draft years with such winners like Kris Humphries, Kirk Snyder, Curtis Borchardt, Raul Lopez, etc.

Tim’s Minnesota Twins Top Prospects

1. Carlos Gomez, CF ETA: 2008

A prospect the Twins received in the Johan Santana trade. He is the best all-around athlete in the Twins system now. He is the fastest runner in the Twins organization if not the major leagues. He has power to hit a lot of double and a good number of home runs. He has a cannon arm and is an excellent defender. He is still very raw but will likely be the Twins opening day starting center fielder and leadoff hitter if he has a solid spring training.


2. Deolis Guerra, RHP ETA: 2010-2011

He is somewhat similar to Gomez, a player received from the Mets who has tons of potential but is still somewhat raw. He is from Venezuela and is only 18 years old. He has a huge body frame and has the potential to be an ace and be the Twins #2 starter behind Francisco Liriano.


3. Tyler Robertson, LHP ETA: 2010

6-5, 225 pound, 19 year old lefty. He has three solid different pitches. Last year he struck out 123 batters in 102 innings in A ball. Hitters hit just .227 off of him. He had an ERA of 2.29 and looks to be a top of the rotation starter. Should start the year in AA ball.


4. Anthony Swarzak, RHP ETA: 2009
Anthony Swarzak is a young right-hander in AA. He has hit 95 mph on the radar gun and his curveball is his out pitch and his changeup gives him plenty of strikeouts as well. .Swarzak was the fifth of six pitchers the Twins selected in the first three rounds of the 2004 draft, but he has emerged as one of their top prospects. He has the potential to be a #2 starting pitcher.


5. Ben Revere, CF ETA: 2011
The Twins first round draft choice in 2007. Baseball America said he was the fastest player in the draft. He had a great first year in the minor leagues, with 10 triples and 21 steals in 50 games, to go along with a .388 on-base percentage and a .461 slugging percentage. One problem is that he is unlikely to develop home run power.


6. Jeff Manship, RHP ETA: 2010
The Twins took him in the 14th round of the draft, in 2006. Manship posted a 1.26 ERA in his 14-inning pro debut. Last year he dominated low Single-A with a 1.51 ERA and 77-to-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 77.2 innings. He was then promoted to high Single-A and had a 3.15 ERA there. So Manship had a hugely successful first full season. He doesn’t have overpowering stuff but he should be at least a mid-rotation starter.


7. Kevin Mulvey, RHP ETA: 2008
Acquired from the Mets in the Santana trade. Was the Mets Minor League Pitcher of the Year. He has modest strikeout numbers, but is very good at keeping the ball in the park. He’s just given up 5 home runs in 173 innings. Should develop into a solid #3 or #4 starting pitcher.


8. Trevor Plouffe, SS ETA: 2009

The Twins first round draft pick in 2004. He struggled at low Single-A and high Single-A over the first two seasons. Despite this, the Twins put him in AA as a 20 year old. He had the best year of his career with 9 home runs and 48 extra-base hits. His 37 doubles ranked third in the league. Plouffe has been pushed through the minors quickly, but he is just 21 and he is headed in the right direction.


9. Chris Parmalee RF ETA: 2011-2012

Drafted by the Twins with the 20th overall pick in the 2006 draft. He had a great first pro season with a .369 on-base percentage and a .532 slugging percentage. He had a disappointing last season, and he struck out in 27 percent of his plate appearances. He did rank in the league’s top 10 in homers. He looks like he will develop into a major power threat, since he has 23 homers, 63 extra-base hits in just 184 games as a teenager. But he needs to improve his .249 batting average and 193 strikeouts to be a potential impact bat.


10. Wilson Ramos C ETA: 2011-2012

The Twins signed Ramos of Venezuela as a 16-year-old in 2004. Wilson Ramos made his pro debut at rookie-ball in 2006 and hit .286 with three homers and 16 total extra-base hits, in 46 games. Last year he had a great season and adjusting for his age, level of competition, defensive position, and offensive environment, Ramos' performance was the best of any position player in the Twins' minor-league system. It is tough to say how well Ramos will do in the future because he is a teenage catcher. But Ramos has hit .290 through his first 119 games and has thrown out 41% of basestealers. It looks like he could develop some power as well. If he does reach the majors, he possesses the greatest threat to consider moving Joe Mauer from catcher to 3B.

Looking at the Johan Santana trade: Philip Humber

Philip Humber
Starting Pitcher
Throws: Right
Age: 25

YEAR Level G GS ERA IP H HR SO BB
2005 A+ 14 14 4.99 70.1 74 6 65 18
2006 A+ 7 7 2.37 38.0 24 4 36 9
AA 6 6 2.88 34.1 25 4 36 10
2007 AAA 25 25 4.27 139.0 129 21 120 44

Humber was selected by the Mets with the third overall pick in the 2004 draft. Humber pitched just 15 starts into his pro career when he suffered a major arm injury, so he had to have Tommy John elbow surgery in mid-2005.

He pitched again the next year, he had a 2.83 ERA, 79-to-20 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and .199 opponent's batting average in 76.1 innings between high Single-A and Double-A. The problem was that his fastball lost a lot of it’s velocity and it hurt him a lot the next year. Humber had a 4.27 ERA in 25 starts at Triple-A, striking out just 120 batters in 139 innings while giving up 21 homers.

It seems that Humber will be a mid-rotation starter, not the ace the Mets thought they were drafting. He has an excellent curveball but his fastball no longer overpowers hitters. Humber was one of four players the Twins received for Santana, although he was once considered untouchable. His stock has fallen, and I doubt he could end up being the ace everyone thought he could be. In fact he might end up in the bullpen if he doesn’t pan out as a starter, since the Twins have tons of pitching prospects who should be ready soon. But being in the bullpen he still could be valuable, and the Twins always produce one of the best bullpens in the majors. So Humber might be the least valuable player the Twins received in the Santana trade. Had they made this trade two or three years ago he would have been the best player in the package but his stock has dropped a bit.

Looking at the Johan Santana trade: Kevin Mulvey

Kevin Mulvey
Starting Pitcher
Throws: Right
Age: 22

YEAR Level G GS ERA IP H HR SO BB
2007 AA 26 26 3.32 151.2 145 4 110 43

Mulvey was selected by the Mets in the second round of the 2006 draft, Mulvey went right to Double-A after signing with the Mets and had a 1.35 ERA in three starts. Last year in AA, Mulvey had a 3.32 ERA and 110-to-43 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 151.2 innings. Mulvey was chosen as the Mets organization’s Minor League Pitcher of the Year.

He should be ready to join the Twins this year. He projects to be a mid-rotation starter, although he doesn’t have great strikeout totals. He keeps the ball in the park, hitters only have hit five homers off of him in 173 innings. Mulvey is very effective against right-handed batters, they only hit .224 off of him with a .275 slugging % and 274 OPS.

I like Mulvey a lot. He is probably the most overlooked player received in exchange for Johan Santana. Phil Humber has the biggest name, Deolis Guerra has the most upside, but Mulvey might end up being the best pitcher that the Twins received in exchange for Johan Santana. He could fill the #3 or #4 slot in the rotation for a while.

Will the Twins be better this year??

To answer this question we will look at how I expect the 2008 player’s improvement or lack thereof vs the 2007 player. The measurement is just level of improvement at that position with 1 being 2008 has a decent improvement over 2007, 3 being really big improvement, and 4 being enormous. Obviously -4 would be an enormous downgrade from 2007 to 2008. Enjoy.

Lineup
2007 C Joe Mauer vs 2008 C Joe Mauer. +2
2007 1B Justin Morneau vs 2008 Justin Morneau +2
2007 2B Luis Castillo vs 2008 Brendan Harris +1
2007 SS Jason Bartlett vs 2008 SS Adam Everett 0
2007 3B Nick Punto vs 2008 3B Mike Lamb +4
2007 LF Jason Tyner vs 2008 LF Delmon Young +4
2007 CF Torii Hunter vs 2008 CF Carlos Gomez? -4
2007 RF Michael Cuddyer vs 2008 Michael Cuddyer 0
2007 DH Rondell White vs 2008 DH Jason Kubel +3

Total lineup improvement +12
Bench
2007 C Mike Redmond vs 2008 C Mike Redmond 0
2007 INF Nick Punto vs 2008 INF Nick Punto +1 (could he get any worse?!)
2007 INF Luis Rodriguez vs 2008 INF Brian Buscher +1
2007 OF Lew Ford vs 2008 OF Craig Monroe +1
2007 INF Garrett Jones vs 2008 INF Garrett Jones 0
Total bench improvement +3
Total offensive improvement +15

Starting Pitching
2007 SP Johan Santana vs 2008 SP Francisco Liriano 0
2007 SP Matt Garza vs 2008 SP Kevin Slowey -1
2007 SP Carlos Silva vs 2008 SP Livan Hernandez -2
2007 SP Scott Baker vs 208 SP Scott Baker +1
2007 SP Boof Bonser vs 2008 SP Boof Bonser +3

Total Starting Pitching improvement : +1

Bullpen
2007 CL Joe Nathan vs 2008 CL Joe Nathan 0
2007 RP Pat Neshek vs 2008 RP Pat Neshek 0
2007 RP Matt Gurrier vs 2008 RP Matt Guerrier -1
2007 RP Jesse Crain vs 2008 RP Jesse Crain +2
2007 RP Dennys Reyes vs 2008 RP Dennys Reyes +2
2007 RP Juan Rincon vs 2008 RP Juan Rincon +2
Total Bullpen Improvement: +5
Total Pitching Improvement: +6

Total Improvement overall +21

That is pretty good. I project that on the 25 man roster, an average of 21 Twins will have a decent improvement over last year’s players. This is me probably just being too optimistic but stranger things have happened. Look at 2006, almost all the Twins had their best year so far. Of course other teams got substantially better and you don’t have to look outside of the Twins’ division. Detroit will have the scariest lineup in the major leagues and we will get to face them plenty this season. The bottom line is this. The Twins just lost their best pitcher ever in Johan Santana and some dude named Torii Hunter in the offseason, hence many are writing the Twins off as rebuilding project aimed to get good in 2010 for their new ballpark. Just don’t be surprised if the “rebuilding” Twins have a better record in 2008 than they did in 2007.

Spring Training and 2008

The Twins started spring training yesterday. They lost 6-1 to the Reds, but hey it is just spring training. Francisco Liriano finally arrived to camp on Wednesday as well. It makes one wonder how the Twins would have done in 2007 (and for the playoffs in 2006) with a healthy Liriano. Boy am I excited to watch him this year. He is my current favorite athlete, right in front of Deron Williams. The Twins had a very disappointing season last year, especially considering how they had the Cy Young winner, the MVP, the batting champ, the best closer in the game, one of the best center fielders in the game. But other than that they didn’t have a lot. And the stars all had down years except for Hunter. So there is reason to believe that they will be better in 2008 than in 2007, despite the losses of Santana, Hunter, and Silva. Here are five players that will have a better year than last.



Jason Kubel - he will finally have his breakout season. He was once regarded about as high of a prospect as Mauer and Morneau. He should cement himself as the Twins DH for the long term.

Joe Mauer - he wasn’t at full strength last year, look for him to improve power numbers to 15-20 HR and be in the thick of the batting title race.

Boof Bonser - was great towards the end of 2006. He then put on a lot of weight and had a lot of problems in 2007. He dropped 25 pounds in the offseason and he should be better in 2008.

Justin Morneau - the 2006 AL MVP had a great first half of 2007. He slumped big time in the second half, after having a few injuries. Look for him to put up numbers similar to his 2006 season.

Dennys Reyes - The dude was unhittable in 2006 but had a terrible 2007. For some reason he is great one year, terrible the next, great the next, then terrible. 2008 lands on the good year of his crazy cycle of success.

2008 Minnesota Twins

Presenting your 2008 Minnesota Twins


CF Carlos Gomez
This speedy Dominican was acquired from the Mets in the Johan Santana trade. He could eventually be the first player to steal 100+ bases in a season since Rickey Henderson. Faster than Jose Reyes. 5-tool player.

DH Jason Kubel
This should be Kubel’s breakout season. He was once a very highly ranked prospect like Morneau and Mauer before a serious knee injury. He showed lots of potential last season.

C Joe Mauer
2007 was a down year for him. He might not win the batting title this year like in 2006 but look for his power and home run numbers to go up exponentially this year.

LF Delmon Young
The best new member of the Twins is about the best young hitter in the game. The Twins acquired him in the Garza trade. He might put up just as good of numbers as Torii Hunter did last year. This is his second year in the majors.

1B Justin Morneau
He slumped big time in the second half of last year. Before that he was 2nd in the league in most offensive stats. Cracking the 40 home run mark isn’t out of the question for this slugger. He needs to have a big year after signing the biggest contract ever given to a Minnesota Twin.

RF Michael Cuddyer
The best outfield arm in the majors should look to put up solid numbers again this year. Signed an extension with the Twins in the offseason.

3B Mike Lamb
The Twins first REAL 3B sine Corey Koskie. Thank goodness the Twins signed him so we don’t have to put up with another season of Nick Punto. He should surprise a lot of people with his bat, has 20 HR potential although the glove isn’t great.

2B Brendan Harris
Acquired for Jason Bartlett during the offseason. Has better bat than Bartlett and should put up 12 - 15 HR and have one of the best seasons with the bat for the Twins since Knoblauch.

SS Adam Everett
The top defensive player in the majors. His bat is not great, Punto-esque, but he more than makes up for it with his glove.


LHP Francisco Liriano
If he returns to his 2006 form, he will make Twins fans forget Johan Santana quicker. He was pitching better than Santana when he was healthy, but after Tommy-John surgery he is not a guarantee to pitch like before. The closest thing to a Santana clone in the majors.

RHP Scott Baker
Had a great last year topped by a perfect game going into the 9th inning vs the Royals. Should be a solid #2 starter.

RHP Boof Bonser
The Twins need him to step up big. They won’t be as patient as they were with him in 2007. He did lose 20 pounds in the off season and could rebound to be a solid pitcher like he was for much of 2006.

RHP Kevin Slowey
Led the AAA league in ERA and it wasn’t even close. This guy has ridiculous control, he is frequently compared to Brad Radke.

RHP Glen Perkins
Perkins was injured for most of last year. This spot could be taken by Brian Duensing, Nick Blackburn, Phil Humber, or Kevin Mulvey. The Twins also might sign a veteran pitcher to help guide the young pitching staff along.



Bullpen

Closer Joe Nathan
Set-up Pat Neshek
Matt Guerrier
Jesse Crain
Juan Rincon
Dennys Reyes

The Twins return their formidable bullpen from the year before with a healthy Jesse Crain. Nathan might be traded but he still remains the top closer in the game. Neshek and Guerrier are fantastic in the 7th and 8th innings. Reyes could rebound to be unhittable like he was in 2006, and Rincon is pitching better after having a couple of down years. The Twins should once again have one of the top bullpens in the league.


Players Lost

Johan Santana
Torii Hunter
Carlos Silva
Jason Bartlett
Matt Garza
Jason Tyner
Lew Ford
Luis Rodriguez
Matt LeCroy


Players gained
Craig Monroe
Adam Everett
Mike Lamb
Deolis Guerra
Kevin Mulvey
Phil Humber
Delmon Young
Carlos Gomez
Brendan Harris
Zach Day
Livan Hernandez

So what does 2008 hold for the Minnesota Twins? 2007 was a huge disappointment after having one of the most talented Twins teams ever finish third place in the division. Then the Twins lost key players such as Santana, Hunter, Garza, Silva, and Bartlett in the offseason. They did improve their offense with such players as Young, Gomez, Harris, and Lamb. Adding Liriano back to the rotation is huge for the Twins but he is a big question mark after coming off of surgery and missing all of 2007. It is tough to say how the Twins will do in 2008. My guess is that they will score more runs with the new offense, but give up more runs with the loss of Santana, Silva, and Garza.

5 things that will make the Twins still revelant this year:

1. They have the best outfield arms in the majors. Cuddyer was #1 last year and Young was #2. Gomez also has a cannon arm. Teams won’t be trying to take that extra base.

2. Mauer, Morneau, and Young are three of the best young hitters in baseball. Kubel could join that group this year and Cuddyer is solid as well.

3. Their pitching rotation is full of great young pitchers. It could be one of the better young staffs in baseball led by Francisco Liriano who is a potential ace.

4. Joe Nathan leads one of the best bullpens in baseball. If the Twins have the lead going into the 7th inning stretch, they’ll likely keep it.

5. Nick Punto and the piranas are no more. Punto will be sitting on the bench, and Tyner is no longer on the team. Brendan Harris and Mike Lamb are two new infielders who should hit 30 home runs between the two of them. And Kubel should finally be a good DH for the Twins.



5 big problems:

1. The Twins have been a sub .500 team when Santana was not pitching over the past few years. His loss is going to sting.

2. They lost their best hitter from 2007 in Torii Hunter. And his leadership/charisma will be missed as well.

3. Detroit might have the best team in baseball right now and Cleveland isn’t too shabby either. It is a long shot at best to make the playoffs.

4. The Twins didn’t get lots of immediate help from the Santana trade. Carlos Gomez could be very good, or he might his .220 and not be on base enough to steal 40 bases.

5. If the offense continues to fail no help can be found in the minors. Most of the Twins prospects are pitchers and practically all the good hitters are at least down at single A ball. There is not another young Morneau to call up if some people are struggling.