Jazz/Celtics Finals?

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/playoffs2008/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=playoffpredictions-080418

John Hollinger, ESPN's stats dude thinks so. It is a good article with statistical evidence. I'm a big stats guy, more so in baseball than in basketball but I like basketball deep stats too. Some things Hollinger says:

Utah has the best chance of coming out of the west at 31 percent.

Jazz played amazingly well over the last fourth of the season. They had an offensive efficiency rating of 116.0, which over a full season would have made them easily the best offensive team of all time.

Jazz were 37-12 after Jan. 1. They had tons of blowout wins over quality teams. Here are some blowout wins this season:

Beat Boston by 18 at their place, the Celtics' worst loss of the season.

Beat New Orleans by 28 and 22, two of Hornets worst losses of season.

Beat San Antonio by 26, Spurs worst loss of season.

Beat Lakers by 24, Lakers worst loss of season.

Beat Phoenix by 22.

Beat Denver by 27 two times.

He points out Utah won 18 games by more than 20 points. The only loss by 20 points for the Jazz was the last game against the Spurs. But can you really think that last game matters, Deron Williams was injured and the Jazz probably lost on purpose, not wanting to face the Spurs in round 1.

Great article by Hollinger, nice to see the Jazz get some love from ESPN. It is about time.

By the way he predicts the Jazz to beat the Rockets in 6, the Lakers in 6, the Hornets in 6, and finally losing to Boston in 6 in the Finals.

Friday Notes

-For all you depressed Cougar fans out there, don't say I didn't warn you. You should be smarter than to expect a first-round win.

-The Jazz looked terrible last night. I think the Lakers just moved to #1 on my teams the Jazz don't want to face in the playoffs list. They won the series 3-1 and they are the first team to beat Utah at home this year. And they did so in a convincing manner. I think Kobe gets up for the Jazz games, he gets riled up over the Jazz booing his ex-Jazz teammates (Malone and Fisher.)

-I don't know how the Twins can take Denard Span over Carlos Gomez for the CF job this season. Ok Span has a better On-Base Percentage but Gomez could end up being the most exciting Twins player ever. The dude already has 9 steals in spring training, a home run, two triples and three doubles. I am starting to wonder how many bases this guy could steal in a whole season. His on-base percentage isn't the best but he scores almost every time he gets on base.

-Boston definitely is my pick to win it all this year after beating Dallas, San Antonio, and Houston all in a row on the road this week. Sure, they have the best record because they play in the East, but they would probably have the best record if they played in the West.

Jazz at Celtics

Big game tonight for the Jazz. They play the Boston Celtics, who possess the league's best record. Boston was the last team to beat the Jazz at Energy Solutions Area. Tonight the game is in Boston, where the Celtics have won 11 in a row. One would think that the Jazz are big underdogs tonight, and you are right. But remember that the Jazz play to the level of their competition, and they probably want revenge for the last game vs the Celtics. Plus the Celtics might be looking ahead as they must face all three Texas teams next week plus New Orleans. I smell a Jazz victory.