Danny Valencia, 3B of the future

Today, we will be taking a look at Twins prospect Danny Valencia, a third baseman.  The Twins are set at catcher, 1B, DH, and the outfield for the next few years.  The Twins biggest area of need in the future is the infield, especially the left side. Their current 3B, Joe Crede, is signed only for this year.  The Twins however have hope for 3B in the future, because of Danny Valencia.  

Valencia is currently in AA with the New Britain Rock Cats.  He is 24 years old.  The Twins acquired him with their 19th round pick in the 2006 draft.  He played in college at Miami.  He has been great with the glove and the bat throughout his minor league career.  Last year in A ball, he hit .336/.402/.518 (avg./OBP/slugg.) with 19 doubles, 5 homers, and 44 RBI in just 220 at-bats before getting called up to AA.  There he had 18 doubles, 10 homers, and 32 RBI.  

He is almost always listed as one of the Twins top 5 prospects, and is probably regarded as the top hitting prospect out of the Twins upper two minor league teams.  This year he is still in AA, and he has 5 homers, 4 triples, and 9 doubles in 124 at-bats, while hitting .339/.432/.597.  That is a 1.028 OPS, which is very very good.  And he is great on defense as well.  

I'd project he will move up to AAA Rochester by the all-star break.  He might get a September callup with the Twins, and I'd expect Danny Valencia to be the Twins 3B starting in 2010.  I don't know if he will be an all-star, but he should be a great bat and a great defensive 3B, and one of the better overall players on the Twins.  I'd project him to hit 15-20 homers a year, with 30+ doubles, and a batting average around .295 in the majors.  It seems as though the Twins have finally found a good long term solution at 3B, something they've been lacking since Corey Koskie left them in 2004.

Baseball America's Top Ten Minnesota Twins Prospects

Baseball America released their top 10 Minnesota Twins prospect list today:

1. Aaron Hicks, of
2. Ben Revere, of
3. Wilson Ramos, c
4. Jose Mijares, lhp
5. Danny Valencia, 3b
6. Anthony Swarzak, rhp
7. Shooter Hunt, rhp
8. Kevin Mulvey, rhp
9. Carlos Gutierrez, rhp
10. Angel Morales, of

I can't say I disagree with it much. I'm not as high on Gutierrez as they are. I like that they rated Mijares that high, he will be a huge help to the bullpen next year. My view on the Twins farm system is that it is very deep, much deeper than in years past, but that it isn't very top heavy, in other words they don't have a top prospect like a Mauer, or a Liriano or Garza or a Young or Morneau sitting there. These guys are probably more like a Kubel, a Slowey, a Casilla, a Bartlett, potential to be good, but maybe not all-stars. But then again, I do have high hopes, especially Hicks should be an all-star, maybe Revere, Ramos, or Morales. I don't know. Nobody does. Nobody knew Span would all of a sudden break out. I guess most these guys won't be helping the team within the next 2 years so we will be able to better judge them as time goes on. But it sure is fun, even though every fan overvalues their team prospects.

Here is Baseball America's former top 10 picks for Twins top prospect:

1999	Michael Cuddyer, 3b	Twins
2000	Michael Cuddyer, 3b	Twins
2001	Adam Johnson, rhp	So. Maryland (Atlantic)
2002	Joe Mauer, c	Twins
2003	Joe Mauer, c	Twins
2004	Joe Mauer, c	Twins
2005	Joe Mauer, c	Twins
2006	Francisco Liriano, lhp	Twins
2007	Matt Garza, rhp	Rays
2008	Nick Blackburn, rhp	Twins

Blackburn was a weird choice, but he was solid last year. Ouch, Adam Johnson was a big bust.

And here is what they think our lineup will look like in 2012:

Catcher	Joe Mauer
First Base	Justin Morneau
Second Base	Alexi Casilla
Third Base	Danny Valencia
Shortstop	Trevor Plouffe
Left Field	Ben Revere
Center Field	Aaron Hicks
Right Field	Delmon Young
Designated Hitter	Jason Kubel
No. 1 Starter	Francisco Liriano
No. 2 Starter	Scott Baker
No. 3 Starter	Kevin Slowey
No. 4 Starter	Nick Blackburn
No. 5 Starter	Glen Perkins
Closer	Joe Nathan

I like it. Plouffe is the worst guy on that list. I'd sure like the Twins to trade for a shortstop like Yunel Escobar or JJ Hardy this winter. But the Twins immediate and long-term future looks very bright.

Trade Targets: Yunel Escobar and JJ Hardy

One rule I have learned over the years observing the Twins is that they are much better traders than free-agent signers. Yes there are some good names out there that would help the Twins,and the Twins have the money to spend, but the Twins have shown the inability to make a good, big free-agent signing. We have already discussed trading for 3B Adrian Beltre of the Mariners and 3B Garrett Atkins of the Rockies, perhaps the Twins top two trading targets for that position. But the Twins, believe it or not, the 3B position for the Twins had 91 RBI last year, and that was with Mike Lamb getting 186 or the 576 at-bats. A Buscher/Harris platoon would be almost as good as many of the 3B free agent options out there. Plus their top two position prospects in the higher levels of the minors are probably two third basemen, Luke Hughes and Danny Valencia, who should be ready by 2010.

Third base is somewhat of a problem but the Twins should try to plug their shortstop hole instead. I hope that they won't resign Nick Punto because we all know Ron Gardenhire loves him like his own son and Punto would start every day at SS. We all know about his putrid 2007 season when he was handed a starting job right from the get-go. He is a utility player.

Two names that I would really like the Twins to pursue via trade are Yunel Escobar of the Braves and J.J. Hardy of the Brewers. Both teams are great trading partners for the Twins because the Braves really need outfielders and starting pitching, and they have an excess of infielders, and the Brewers need starting pitching and they are looking to trade some of their infield depth.

Escobar is 26 years old, and a Cuban. He has been with the Braves for 2 years. Last year he had a .366 OBP and .401 SLG and he hit 10 HR while playing good defense at SS. He is young and projects to hit 20-25 HR. He probably projects as an All-Star SS. Solid all-around.

Hardy is also 26. He is ok with the glove. But his bat is amazing. Over the past two seasons he has combined to hit 50 home runs. Last year he had a .343 OBP and .478 SLG.

They both are right-handed hitters, something the Twins need as well.

I have no idea what it would take to get them. Here are trades I would make:

Cuddyer and Blackburn for Escobar.
Cuddyer and Pridie for Hardy.
Bonser, Humber, and Perkins for Hardy.
Slowey for Escobar and a good infield prospect.
Slowey for Hardy and a good prospect.
Young for Escobar.
Span for Escobar.

untradeable players:
Liriano, Baker, Mauer, Morneau, Nathan.

With free-agents free to sign starting tomorrow I am sure we will see more and more Twins rumors.

Let's just hope they don't sign another Livan Hernandez, Tony Bautista, Mike Lamb, Adam Everett, Sidney Ponson, Ramon Ortiz, etc.

Help on the way?

Now that we have reviewed who some of the Twins' best prospects are, naturally one would wonder who can help the Twins in 2009. In 2008 several players helped tremendously such as Denard Span, Alexi Casilla, Brian Buscher, Nick Blackburn, Kevin Slowey, Glen Perkins, and Jose Mijares among others. Some, such as Casilla, Span, and Buscher weren't high on people's lists at the start of 2008. So I won't be surprised if someone not on this list helps out in a big way. With that being said here are some prospects close to the majors:

1. Jose Mijares. Left Handed Relief Pitcher. He should be the 7th or 8th inning set-up man. He was dominant in September.
2. Anthony Swarzak. Starting Pitcher. Won't start the season with the Twins unless they trade Blackburn or Perkins. Was lights out when he was called up to AAA.
3. Kevin Mulvey. Starting Pitcher. If Swarzak isn't the first guy to be called up, Mulvey would be in contention as well. Was solid, but not spectacular at AAA last year.
4. Brian Duensing. Starting Pitcher. Same story as Mulvey. Pitched in the Olympics. Had a better year in 2007 than 2008.
5. Phil Humber. Starting Pitcher. This guy will be with the Twins or dropped at the start of 2009, because he is out of options. He will likely be the long-relief out of the bullpen if Bonser is traded.

Others who could be called up if there was an emergency:
Danny Valencia 3B
Luke Hughes 2B/3B
Matt Macri IF
Roberty Delaney RP
Anthony Slama RP
Trevor Plouffe SS

It is hard to say who of these guys will be the Span or Casilla of 2009. My guess is that only Mijares will contribute out of this group. The Twins are too deep and young and they plan to fill some holes through trades or free-agency. Really it is too early to tell. Most these guys if they did come up in 2009 it would be after the all-star break, if not until 2010.

A look ahead: 2010 Minnesota Twins

In 2010 the Twins new ballpark will open. This will be a huge day for the Twins shall be getting out of the Metrodome, perhaps the worst baseball ballpark in MLB. The Twins aren’t necessarily rebuilding but they are regrouping, trying to be a World Series caliber team. It’s not a bad idea, most this team is really young especially the core. Only Michael Cuddyer and Joe Nathan are over 27. So the 2008 Twins are kind of like the beta 2010 Twins. Here is what the 2010 Twins might look like on opening day:

C Joe Mauer
1B Justin Morneau
2B Alexi Casilla
SS Trevor Plouffe
3B Danny Valencia
LF Delmon Young
CF Carlos Gomez
RF Michael Cuddyer
DH Jason Kubel

SP Francisco Liriano
SP Scott Baker
SP Kevin Slowey
SP Phil Humber
SP Deolis Guerra

CL Joe Nathan

And the lineup:

CF Gomez
C Mauer
LF Young
1B Morneau
RF Cuddyer
DH Kubel
3B Valencia
SS Plouffe
2B Casilla

All of those guys have great potential. Only Joe Nathan and perhaps Michael Cuddyer have reached their ceiling. Casilla and Gomez could combine for over 100 SB. Mauer/Young/Morneau/Cuddyer/Kubel will be one of the best middle of the lineup combinations. Valencia and Plouffe have great offensive potential as well. Valencia will be the best Twins 3B since Koskie and Plouffe will have the most extra-base hits for a Twins shortstop in a long long time.


And the rotation, well it could be amazing. Liriano could end up being the best pitcher on the planet (yes, better than Santana), Baker has the potential to rack up high strikeout totals and low walks issued, Slowey reminds many of Greg Maddux and Brad Radke due to his command and deception, Humber was the #3 pick in his draft for a reason, and Deolis Guerra should be ready for the rotation around this time and will help anchor the top of the rotation for a very long time.

This post comes at a bad time. 2008 just started, I know. The Twins could be very good this year. But they are more likely to disappoint. So if the season gets to be rough then we can just look 2 years to the future and therein lies great hope and potential.