Utah Jazz 2010 Lottery Pick

No I'm not talking about the Jazz own draft pick being in the lottery next season, although it feels like that's where they're headed.  I'm talking about the Knicks pick that we get next year.  We'll use this seasons records/standings to predict where the Knicks will end up.  Currently, the Knicks have the 8th worst record in the NBA.  I'd say their record wouldn't get better or much worse next season.  Looking at the teams below them, I'd say the Wizards and the Thunder will be much better next season, I'd even put the Timberwolves in that group.  Perhaps one (or two) of the Clippers or Grizzlies or Warriors perform better next season.  Obviously some teams will be injured like the Wizards were this season and they might fall below the Knicks, but if that doesn't happen, I'd predict the Jazz will get no worse than a top seven draft pick, with a decent shot at #1, #2, or #3!  And we all know what happened the last time the Jazz had a pick so high...  Deron Williams, you might just be getting a superstar teammate in 2010.

Jazz looking primed to go on a run

The Jazz are going into the all-star break on a high note, after defeating the Lakers. Now, they will get some much needed rest. Millsap stands to benefit the most from the time off. Hopefully all will heal completely from their sores and bruises. Currently, it sounds like Kirilenko will be back for the next game, while Boozer hopes to be back soon after that. Here is my prediction for the next 10 games:

Feb 17 vs Memphis Win
Feb 19 vs Boston Win
Feb 21 vs New Orleans Win
Feb 23 vs Atlanta Win
Feb 25 @ Minnesota Win
Feb 28 vs Sacramento Win
Mar 1 @ Golden State Win
Mar 4 vs Houston Win
Mar 6 vs Denver Win
Mar 8 @ Toronto Win

Yes, I am predicting a 10 game win streak. The Jazz play 7 of those at home, and the three road games are against weak teams (which often spells doom for the Jazz). Maybe I should have learned from my last prediction to set the bar low and be happy when they do better than expected. But the Jazz need to make a run, and it's feeling like that time is coming now. But these predictions are only on the condition that Millsap comes back from the break at full strength, that AK comes back vs Memphis, and that Boozer comes back by the 2nd or 3rd game.

Here is how I'd rank those games in terms of difficulty for the Jazz:
1. vs Boston (if they beat LA, why not Boston?)
2. vs Denver (lots of pressure for the Jazz to win if they want to catch up)
3. @ Golden State (they already dominated us at their place this year)
4. vs Houston
5. vs Atlanta
6. @ Toronto
7. vs New Orleans (we always beat them at home)
8. @ Minnesota (would be higher if they hadn't lost Jefferson)
9. vs Sacramento
10. vs Memphis

I'm feeling confident for a lot of reasons. Williams is playing insanely good, probably as good as he ever has played. Millsap was playing amazing before his injuries, and he couldn't heal because he kept playing through them. A week of rest should revitalize him. Getting AK back is huge, he already says he has no pain.

And getting Boozer back will be just as big, it will boost the Jazz confidence, and return everyone to their normal roles. Everyone will benefit from Boozer getting back in the starting lineup. Miles won't have as much pressure on him, Williams and Okur won't have to carry the team every night, Korver should get more open looks, Millsap can dominate against other teams benches and can play with Boozer, Williams gets his favorite target back, Brewer can drive inside more, etc.

The sleeping (or better said, injured) giant has awoken. The Jazz are back. And you gotta love it baby!

Karl Malone as TNT Studio Analysist

Some random thoughts after the Jazz trounced the Mavs at home, 115-87.

-Boozer is planning to return February 17 vs Memphis, the first game after the all-star break.

-Kirilenko is planning to return right after the all-star break as well.

-No matter what trades happen before the break, no rivals in the West will be getting 2 all-stars to join their team like the Jazz are in getting back Kirilenko and Boozer.

-If what Boozer says is true, then the Jazz only have 3 more games without him, tonight at Sacramento, Sunday at Golden State, and Wednesday against the Lakers.

-The Jazz could actually end up making a deep run into the playoffs. If other teams start suffering injuries like the Jazz have had, like if a Gasol, CP3, Duncan, Roy, etc. goes down while the Jazz stay healthy, I like our chances. That likely won't happen but apparently this season anything can happen.

-Williams is back. His crossover when he broke Terry's ankles was just sick. I'll take 34 points and 12 assists any night.

-I'd also like to see Korver start. He was fantastic tonight. I think he is less pressured to provide instant offense when he is with the starting 5 rather than the bench. He is also a great rebounder. CJ might be better coming off the bench. He wouldn't feel as scrutinized, or as easy of a target if the Jazz don't start off well. Make this change happen Jerry.

- Karl Malone wasn't too shabby in the TNT studio. I was hoping he woulnd't embarass himself and he didn't. Malone talked about Lamar Odom too much, but it was neat to see him speak of Stockton and Hornacek in reverent tones. He claimed he didn't play with a lot of great players. Ostertag didn't count? Anyways I wouldn't mind seeing Malone doing more of that stuff, or being more involved with the NBA.

- The Jazz played one of their best games of the season. Maybe they knew Malone was watching. Malone claims he helped bring Millsap to Utah. Millsap has much of Malones game, but his personality is more like Stockton's.

-Malone says the thing that impresses him about the Jazz this season is that they don't complain about the injuries they just keep on playing and trying their best. If the Jazz did somehow end up winning the title this season it would be a great story and example of not ever giving up and pressing forward no matter that happens.

Five year value of Jazz players

This season has been painful to think about. I know all the current Jazz players won't be on the team for the next five years, but this is how I'd rank the value of their contributions to the Jazz if they were to stay with them for the next five years.

15. Jarron Collins - He is done after this season. Is of no value to any team in the future.
14. Matt Harpring -He has the skill, but not the health. Likely will retire after next season.
13. Morris Almond - He could be higher on this list, but needs to improve on overall game.
12. Ronnie Price - Price would be more valuable if he were a true PG. He is small for a SG, but he sure is athletic.
11. Brevin Knight - Knight is getting old. He is a good backup PG who doesn't turn the ball over but who can't shoot. You know what you are getting from him.
10. Kyrylo Fesenko - This guy has some potential, and a lot of size.
9. Kyle Korver - Is already declining, his value looks to be going way down unless he can start shooting lights-out again.
8. CJ Miles - This guy could be higher if he can consistently tap into all the potential he has. For the forseeable future, he just isn't consistent and he doesn't hustle.
7. Ronnie Brewer - If he can be consistent he will be a star for the Jazz. He has pretty much got a manhandle on the SG position, but that may change with the Jazz 2010 lottery pick that they get from the Knicks.
6. Kosta Koufos - This guy reminds me of Millsap his rookie season, only he plays center and some mean defense. He can score too.
5. Andrei Kirilenko - It will be interesting to see what teams are willing to pay this guy when his max-contract runs out.
4. Memo Okur - The money man has one of the most unique skill sets for a guy his size. Only rivaled by Dirk. He still has some great years left in him.
3. Paul Millsap - You could probably flip Boozer and Millsap in a few seasons if Millsap keeps improving the way he is.
2. Carlos Boozer - Fans may hate him, but the Jazz haven't been the same without him this season. He is the best ambidixterous guy I know, and he is a two-time Olympian/all-star.
1. Deron Williams - Who else were you expecting?

Boozer gone, Millsap gone, Okur gone?

This season has been worse than anybody could have realistically imagined. And the harmful effects of this season could end up hurting the Jazz even more after the final buzzer of the season has sounded. Lets face it, Carlos Boozer would be crazy to opt out of his contract after this season. Who is going to be able to pay him more than he is making right now? Portland can't now, Miami is saying they don't want to. No playoff team has the money to sign Boozer in the off-season. And even if they could, would they? I would be afraid to sign a guy who just had a bad knee injury.

This is how it could possibly hurt the Jazz this off-season: Memo opts out and signs with another team. Millsap signs a big contract with another team, too big for the Jazz to sign him for, because Boozer decided to not opt out, and the Jazz are still on the hook for his money. Then Boozer has a big year and he leaves the Jazz after his final contract year. For the 2010-2011 team the Jazz could end up without Memo, Boozer, AND Millsap. I know that might sound crazy and a little-farfetched but this season has been just as crazy and unpredictable. Of course the 2010 offseason will be loaded with top-notch free-agents, and teams are already slashing payroll so they can afford someone like LeBron James, or Amare. So if Boozer and Memo and Millsap were gone by then, sure the Jazz would have money, but we know how big free-agents like to come to play for Utah. Plus the Jazz have the Knicks first-round draft pick in 2010 so the Jazz could end up with a young top-3 pick and with a top-notch free-agent to play with Deron.

I'm sure the Jazz brass have considered this and other problems that will happen over the next couple of years and I'm sure they have a plan. They are one of the better front offices in the NBA. Let's just hope they don't let all our talent slip away.

Jerry Sloan = Coach of the Year

This is another year where Jerry Sloan deserves the coach of the year award. What he has done with the lineup and team is remarkable considering the injuries the Jazz have had so far. Williams, Boozer, Kirilenko, Harpring, Okur, Brewer, Millsap, Korver, Knight, Miles, and probably others that I can't remember have all missed games due to injury. Yet the Jazz are 25-18, they are 17-4 at home, 17-7 against Western Conference teams, and are just 4 games back from being in 2nd place. If the Jazz had everyone healthy for the whole season and had this record, then the season would have been a disaster. But Jerry has held down the fort and has used Utah's depth to its advantage. A healthy Boozer coming back in February makes me think that the Jazz will leapfrog all the way to #2 seed in the West, win the division, and join the ranks of the Lakers, Celtics, Cavs, and Magic as the elite teams in the NBA. Most coaches in Jerry's position would have likely given up on the season and let his players do whatever but not Jerry. He refuses to quit and has everyone shaking their heads that the Jazz are still even in the playoff hunt. He should have received several COY awards and this season is the perfect chance for voters to repent.

Grading the Jazz at midseason

Deron Williams >> B+. It is difficult to be too hard on Williams performance so far. Only recently has he appeared to be at full strength. The last four games he has averaged 26 points and 12 assists. He is the heart and soul of the Jazz and he will have a monster 2nd half.

Carlos Boozer >> Incomplete. Boozer put up good numbers but has only played 12 games so far this season. Unless he is a beast when he comes back, I don't think he will opt out of his contract after all.

Memo Okur >> B. He is scoring 3 more points a game and getting an extra rebound a game more from last season. He has really been good in the first half over the past few games.

Paul Millsap >> A. Millsap has been the MVP of the Jazz thus far. He has almost doubled his numbers from last year while only playing 10 more minutes a game. He will definitely be the top priority for the Jazz in the offseason. The Jazz want and need him to stay.

Andrei Kirilenko >> B+. He cooled off after a hot start to the season. I'd like to see him cut down on his 3-pointer attempts. He is only 11-46 from beyond the arc this season. Hornacek, what have you done to him??

Ronnie Brewer >> B-. His numbers are very similar to last seasons except his FG% is down from 56% to 48% this season. His biggest problem is his consistency.

CJ Miles >> B-. He can score, but not much else. He really needs more consistency, and needs to work on his overall game if he wants to keep his starting spot.

Kyle Korver >> C+. He has been struggling a bit this season due to his wrist injury. Hopefully he will be able to shoot a little better the rest of the season because for a 3 point specialist he hasn't been amazing (38%).

Brevin Knight >> B. He has been a solid backup for Deron. His minutes keep getting reduced as Williams gets to full strength so he will likely only play 10-15 minutes a game from here on out.

Matt Harpring >> C-. He has been recovering from a bad ankle infection. The Jazz have really missed his old production from the bench, but hopefully he will improve for the second half of the season.

Ronnie Price >> B. Nobody has been jerked around as much as Ronnie has this season. He has started a lot and not played in most the games he has appeared in. But he has admirably dealt with his uncertain role.

Morris Almond >> D. He hasn't done much this season, appearing in only 21 games, mainly in garbage time. He quickly lost his 2nd quarter minutes he was getting due to being unproductive. If his shot is not falling he is worthless on the floor. Maybe the Jazz were right in not picking up his option for next season.

Kosta Koufos >> A-. This guy has been better than anybody thought he would be this season. He's played 13 minutes a game and played in 35 games already. That is a rarity for a rookie in Jerry Sloan's system. The last rookie who got that much playing time and praise from Sloan as a rookie? Jerry Sloan. He could be the defensive center we have needed.

Jarron Collins >> D. He has only played in 7 games the whole season while recovering from a golf cart injury.

Kyrylo Fesenko >> C+. Hasn't earned much playing time but he did have a couple of very impressive games that showed flashes of his potential, especially his game fs Yao Ming and the Rockets.

Millsap could be an all-star

I think a new MVP of the Jazz season has emerged: Paul Millsap. And he is getting everybody's attention. He might even make the all-star game, despite not being on the ballot. I think he is averaging something like 19 points, 11 rebounds, 1.5 steals, and 1.5 blocks since being a starter. Williams was probably really mad at Boozer when he announced he would opt out of his contract after this season, but I think Williams is calming down after playing with Millsap for a while.

"He's doing all the right things," Williams said. "There's some big decisions this summer with him. We definitely want him back. He's playing so great for us right now at both ends of the floor. I like playing with him."

Now it is time to see what the Jazz would do of the offseason started today.

Right now I'd imagine the Jazz resign Millsap at whatever cost, they let Boozer go, Okur and Korver probably don't opt out of their contracts. They probably would like to keep Price and Knight if they aren't too expensive, they would definitely resign one of them so that they keep a backup point guard who knows the system. I think Almond is a goner after this season as is Collins. It is tough to say one way or the other about Fesenko. If they have any money left they go after a decent SF. The trump card here is the 2010 NY Knicks first round draft pick which could be very high and which could replace one season later a big hole if more than one of Boozer/Okur/Millsap left. This is how I envision the Jazz team next season:

PG Deron Williams Brevin Knight Ronnie Price
SG Ronnie Brewer Kyle Korver
SF Andrei Kirilenko CJ Miles Matt Harpring
PF Paul Millsap Free Agent
C Memo Okur Kosta Koufos Kyrylo Fesenko

Salaries (in millions)
AK - $16.5
Williams - $13.8
Millsap - $9
Memo - $9
Harpring - $6.5
Korver - $5
Miles - $3.7
Brewer - $2.7
Knight - $2
Price - $1.5
Koufos - $1.2
Fesenko - $0.9

Williams and the Jazz blow out Paul and the Hornets

The Jazz with Williams now have 9 wins versus the Hornets 2 with Williams and Paul playing head to head. Sure people will argue that Paul is better than Williams but head to head there is no doubt who the better player is. Sure Paul had more points tonight (Williams was battling the flu) but the point guard isn't supposed to lead his team in scoring every night, he is supposed to get his teammates the ball and get them involved. Williams usually shuts down Paul, tonight Paul had his best stats vs Williams, but the Jazz still blew out the Hornets. I would love to see the Jazz play the Hornets in the playoffs. We play better against them than any other Western power. By the way Millsap just keeps getting better and better. 27 points, 14 rebounds, 5 assists, 1 steal. Carlos who?

Hot Rod Hundley called his 3,000 game tonight and the stars really aligned for him. Not only did the Jazz play against New Orleans but DirectTV stopped showing KJZZ tonight so he probably had a lot more people than normal listening to him on the radio.

Jazz vs Warriors

I always like it when the Jazz play the Warriors. Everyone always gets great stats. Millsap picked up his 18th straight double-double. Koufos scored 11 points. Williams had 25 pts. 15 assists. Williams looks like he is at full strength now. I am sure excited to see him school Chris Paul on Wednesday when the Hornets come to the Energy Solutions Arena. The Jazz seem to always beat the Warriors and they always play well against the Hornets. I think D-Will has only lost something like 2 games to Chris Paul and the Hornets. D-Will has to be upset about Chris Paul getting all the attention and we know how Williams plays when he is upset and how Williams destroys Paul when they play each other.

Comparing two Jazz Teams

Well it is now over 10 years since John Stockton sent the Utah Jazz to the NBA Finals. Many have compared the current team to the one back then. Here is ranking the 1998 players to the current players from most similar to least similar.

Jerry Sloan - Jerry Sloan
Jeff Hornacek - Kyle Korver
Adam Keefe - Matt Harpring
Bryon Russell - Andrei Kirilenko
William Cunningham - Jarron Collins
Troy Hudson - Ronnie Price
Antoine Carr - Paul Millsap
Chris Morris - CJ Miles
John Stockton - Deron Williams
Shandon Anderson - Ronnie Brewer
Howard Eisley - Brevin Knight
Karl Malone - Carlos Boozer
Greg Foster - Kosta Koufos
Jacque Vaughn - Morris Almond
Greg Ostertag - Memo Okur

Yes I'd have to say if you match the '98 players to their '08 counterparts, then Ostertag and Okur are definitely the most different. Imagine the '98 team with Ostertag shooting like Okur.

Injured Jazz = Dangerous Team

There are two things that don't end for the Jazz: their injuries and their depth. With Boozer, Okur, Millsap, and Collins all unavailable to play due to injuries things were looking pretty grim for the Jazz. But it looks like the Jazz might have another Millsap-like rookie: Kosta Koufos. The guy shot 8-11 on the night to end up with 18 points, 8 rebounds, and a couple steals, assists, and blocks in 29 minutes. Remember, this guy is just 19. Perhaps he will end up being the best Ohio State center drafted in the past couple years (#1 overal pick Greg Oden being the other.) He looks great even as a 19 year old. And Kirilenko filled in admirably at power forward. D-Will even had 4 steals, which is a great number for him. Really, everyone came out to play and it was an extremely pleasing game to watch. The Jazz are a fun team to watch most nights, and it is especially fun to watch young players like Fesenko, Koufos, Miles, and Brewer play key roles in a victory. I am definitely ready to get Millsap, Boozer, and Okur back, but it is fun to watch some other players step up and to see the Jazz win despite being so thin.

State of the Jazz

It seems that the Jazz have been a three headed beast as of late with Okur, Millsap, and Williams leading the way. Nobody else has been a huge contributor game in and out like them. I am starting to wonder about this season. Most viewed it as our big shot to win the NBA title. I'm not sure how wide open that window is currently. Of course there is still plenty of time left in the season, and there are a lot of games to be played. But now word has it that Boozer might need surgery. I just don't see how he could opt out of his contract if that happens. You'd have to imagine that he would stay one more year to have a great year so that teams will be more willing to pay him. And as good as Millsap is this year and as good as he will become, as of right now we still could use Boozer's offense.

If this turns out to not be a title run year (which it easily could still end up being) it certainly isn't a rebuilding year either. Just a regrouping year. Besides Memo, the 4 other starters are young, very young. Millsap, Brewer, and Williams are all going to be key cogs of this team for a very long time. If the Jazz fail to make a deep run in the playoffs, I'm sure it won't be the last shot that Williams has at an NBA title with the Jazz. This team will only get better and Millsap has proven he can put up Boozer-esque numbers while playing much better defense and staying healthy. And remember the Jazz have the Knicks first-round draft pick in 2010, which could be a very high pick. And we all remember the caliber of player the Jazz were able to select the last time they had a top 5 pick.

My Top Ten Favorite Jazz players of all-time

Note: I only put players I remember seeing play on the list. Hence Maravich, Dantley, Griffiths, etc. are disqualified.

1. Karl Malone
2. John Stockton
3. Deron Williams
4. Andrei Kirilenko
5. Jeff Hornacek
6. Memo Okur
7. Bryon Russell
8. Paul Millsap
9. Carlos Boozer
10. Donyell Marshall

BREAKING NEWS: Carlos Boo$er to opt out of contract

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=3777170&campaign=rss&source=NBAHeadlines

So my last post was quite timely. Honestly I really don't expect Boo$er to stay with Utah for next season. Remember what he did with Cleveland? He could have stayed and played with LEBRON JAMES so what makes you think he will stay in Utah just to play with DERON WILLIAMS? Millsap will be the man here after this year. And I am excited about it. Boo$er won't get much better but the sky is the limit for Millsap. Yes Boozer is an incredible offensive player and rebounder. Millsap will get better though. And I for one am willing to let some other team pay Boozer max contract money while he spends at least 1/4 of the season on the bench. Millsap is more like Karl Malone than Boozer. Boozer is too weak on defense. Millsap has a more complete game like the Mailman. They even went to the same college. With Williams and Millsap we will have the true heirs to the Stockton to Malone leaders of the Jazz.

Boozer or Millsap?

I guess one positive of Boozer being out is that the Jazz get to see what Millsap brings to the table getting starter's minutes. He has been solid, posting a double-double in the past 11 games. That is great. Against Boston he looked fantastic, showing off an amazing array of offensive moves. Millsap would definitely get the edge on defense, he picks up more blocks and steals than Boozer. They are both elite rebounders, although I think Millsap might have the slight edge. He did lead the NCAA 3 straight years in rebounding. But Boozer definitely has the edge on offense. It is Boozer's offense that we are missing right now. Millsap could obviously develop more and become a much better offensive player.

So both will likely be up for new contracts after the season and it is likely the Jazz will only be able to afford one of them. So which one do they choose? I really don't know. The Jazz aren't playing too well without Boozer right now. But that might also be attributed to Williams being slowed by his injury. But we would all hate to see Millsap become an all-star with a different team. He will likely be cheaper than Boozer, and he is much less injury prone than Boozer. After all, Millsap has not missed a game yet in the NBA. Boozer is about 3 inches taller than Millsap.

I think I'd lean towards keeping Millsap. It might be crazy to let go of an Olympian, but maybe Boozer doesn't want to re-sign here. It will be an interesting offseason.

Raptors at Jazz Game Recap

Utah Jazz 114, Toronto Raptors 87

-Biggest news was the return of Andrei Kirilenko, Brevin Knight, and Matt Harpring from injuries.

-Harpring was outstanding posting 14 points and 7 rebounds in just 12 minutes of play. Perhaps he can be a big contributor this season.

-Williams is looking much more confident and some of the drive to the lane he took wouldn't have come if his ankle was bothering him a lot.

-Millsap's final line: 17 points, 11 rebounds, 7 assists, 3 blocks, and 1 steal. Carlos who?

-Koufos also came in and scored 10 points in 6 minutes of garbage time.

-And Memo Okur led the way with 21 points.

-The Jazz are getting closer to being at 100% full strength. They proved that with most their pieces effective, they can play extremely well despite not having one of their stars (Boozer). Which is good because he might not return next season.

-Nice win for the Jazz on national television. You get the feeling that momentum is starting to be on their side and that they are about to show us what they are possible of doing this season.

Jazz on National Television tonight

The Jazz host the Toronto Raptors tonight on ESPN at 8:30.

Kirilenko is planning to play. That is good news for the Jazz, they are 11-4 when Kirilenko plays.

Hopefully the Jazz will start to return to form with AK back. Now when they get Boozer back and Williams confidence is 100% along with his ankle fully healed then we will be able to see what the Jazz can do. But I feel that tonight is the beginning of the end (hopefully) of the Jazz being extremely limited due to injuries.



One other random note: Looks like former BYU QB Steve Sarkisian will be named the next head coach of the Washington Huskies football team. He is not going into a very good situation. Sarkisian was the QB of perhaps the best BYU football team in my lifetime (1996).

Jazz play the blues

Nobody could have predicted what has happened to the Jazz this season. Nobody thought they would have this bad of a record and be in 3rd place in their division at the end of November.

But looking past all the negatives I think there are quite a few silver linings so far despite all the depressing injuries that have occurred thus far.

1. Younger players develop - Out of everyone, I would say CJ Miles has developed the most out of the young players. He is starting to make the Jazz look good for signing him to a four year deal.

2. We are only 1 game out of 2nd place. I don't know if we can catch the Lakers but once everyone is healthy and if we can stay even with the others, then we should be able to lock up the 2nd seed, thus giving us home-court advantage until the Conference Finals, and we wouldn't face the Lakers until then.

3. Andrei Kirilenko's resurgence.

4. The bench/younger players are getting valuable experience, especially in crunch time. Even though Williams/Boozer/Kirilenko played in the Olympics, their time being out should get them some much needed rest. Come playoff time, I imagine Okur/Boozer/Kirilenko/Williams/Korver/Harpring/Knight will not be quite as worn down as the opposition. Really if you are going to be injured, I'd much rather be injured at the beginning of the season than the end and not be 100% for the playoffs.



To conclude, in April when we are looking back at this unprecedented injury problem we have had we might just look at it as a blessing in disguise. The only thing that is negative about it is that we likely can't get the top seed in the west. Other than that, nothing too devastating has happened, that is if we don't fall behind the rest of the competition.

2 players to be thankful for