Projected HR Totals

From ESPN statistics, here are what their projected home run totals are for the Twins:

52 - Joe Mauer
50 - Justin Morneau
27 - Joe Crede
22 - Jason Kubel
17 - Michael Cuddyer
11 - Brendan Harris
8 - Denard Span
8 - Brian Buscher
6 - Delmon Young
0 - Carlos Gomez
0 - Nick Punto
0 - Matt Tolbert
0 - Mike Redmond

And time to redo my predictions:
Justin Morneau - 38
Joe Mauer - 34
Jason Kubel - 26
Joe Crede - 22
Michael Cuddyer - 18
Delmon Young - 13
Carlos Gomez - 10
Brendan Harris - 9
Denard Span - 7
Brian Buscher - 6
Alexi Casilla - 4
Nick Punto - 1
Matt Tolbert - 1
Mike Redmond - 0

Ranking the Twins position players

Note: These rankings take into account offense AND defense. These aren't necessarily based off numbers. This is how I'd rank their value for the next few months:

1. Mauer - Arguably more valuable to the Twins than any other player is to his team in the majors.
2. Morneau - I'd hate to imagine where the Twins would be without his bat.
3. Span - Gets on base at a great rate, has gold glove defense at all three outfield positions.
4. Kubel - Has great bat, but Span's defense is much better.
5. Cuddyer - The next five could be ranked in almost any order. Cuddyer is a nice right-handed bat with a great arm.
6. Crede - Superb defense, with some nice pop in the bat, although he could get on base at a better clip.
7. Casilla - Has developed into a superb #2 hitter, and I love his range at 2B, although he still makes silly mistakes.
8. Gomez - If his new plate approach develops him into a more patient hitter and he develops a bit more power, he easily cracks into the top five, as he is already the best defensive outfielder in the majors.
9. Young - Don't know where to stick this guy. I'd love to stick him at #3 on this list as that is where his potential is. Still is very young for the majors, we'll see how this season turns out.
10. Punto - He is better than I give him credit for, defense is great, although very over-rated.
11. Harris - Decent bat, can play all over the infield, although not very well.
12. Redmond - One of the best backup catchers in the majors hands-down.
13. Buscher - I really like his bat, his defense is likely why the Twins signed Crede.

Predicting home run totals

Last season the Twins only hit 111 home runs while their opponents hit 183 against them. Only two players on the Twins hit more than 20(Morneau and Kubel) and only one more hit in double digits (Young). That said, I believe the Twins will show much more power this year. Getting Cuddyer back is one reason, adding Joe Crede is another. A full season for players like Denard Span and Alexi Casilla should help their numbers. Getting better/older/wiser should mean improvements for Carlos Gomez and Delmon Young. Getting LASIK-eye surgery and talking to Harmon Killebrew should hopefully lead to improved totals for Justin Morneau(not to mention better protection for him in the lineup.)

Here is my predicted home run totals for the Twins:
Justin Morneau - 34
Jason Kubel - 30
Joe Crede - 24
Michael Cuddyer - 22
Delmon Young - 21
Carlos Gomez - 16
Denard Span - 13
Alexi Casilla - 12
Joe Mauer - 12 (If Mauer hit for 25-30 HR a year, he'd be the best catcher in history)
Brendan Harris - 6
Brian Buscher - 6
Nick Punto - 2
Mike Redmond - 0

Chances are at the end of the season, I'll look silly for those predictions. The Twins never hit for that much power. But this year just feels a little different...

Why the Minnesota Twins will be the 2009 AL Central Champs

I could write about how bad the Jazz will be while Boozer and Kirilenko are out, but I don't want to write it and you don't want to read it. All these injuries that the Jazz are having is making me look forward to baseball opening day even more.

You can bet that there will be much more Twins player-by-player analysis/projections/outlooks on this blog as opening day approaches. For now we will take a quick glance at why the Twins have as good a shot as anybody to win the AL Central this year.

1. They won't have any innings pitched by Livan Hernandez. Those innings will be taken over by a full season of a healthy, confident Francisco Liriano, who looks to win his first AL Cy Young. The rest of the young rotation stays the same, a rotation that was responsible for much of the 2008 success.

2. No at-bats from Craig Monroe, Mike Lamb, or Adam Everett. Those guys were black-holes last season. The Twins haven't signed a big bat, but Jason Kubel, Brian Buscher, and Brendan Harris will likely put up better numbers than those other three did last year.

3. The bullpen should be better this year. Again they haven't brought anybody new, but Jose Mijares should take over the 8th inning role nicely, setting up for one of the best closers in the game, Joe Nathan. Jesse Crain is one more year removed from that cuff surgery and he should be better, and Boof Bonser could be a force in the bullpen now that he is getting adjusted to not starting.

4. They will have a full season from Michael Cuddyer and Denard Span. Span was a key cog for the 2nd half of 2008. Cuddyer was the valuable cleanup hitter for the great 2006 year.

5. Delmon Young and Carlos Gomez will be one year older and wiser too. These guys were two of the youngest players in the majors last year. Young especially should be much better this year. They will only get better with time, and could turn into big-time stars.

6. Out of the other competetors only the Indians got better. The White Sox traded or didn't resign a lot of key guys from their team. The Tigers are old. The Indians won't have Sabathia this year, Cliff Lee won't repeat the success he had from last season, they did sign and trade for guys like DeRosa and Kerry Wood, but they lost others like Casey Blake.

7. They re-signed Nick Punto. Ok that one is a joke. But the Twins are so young, and most these guys will get better. Not too many of them have hit their prime yet. It should be an exciting season, as long as injuries don't ravage them. But a blow to Joe Mauer, or Justin Morneau, or a couple of staff members like Kevin Slowey and Scott Baker and all bets are off. I hope I didn't just jinx them.

Twins in the World Baseball Classic

With the 2nd World Baseball coming up in a few months it is time to wonder which Twins will participate. Last time I seem to remember both Liriano and Santana pitched for their countries and I don't remember anybody else going, maybe Dennys Reyes and Luis Castillo?

As for this year here are some possibilities:
Justin Morneau - Canada (Already confirmed)
Jesse Crain - Canada

USA:
Joe Mauer
Joe Nathan

Dominican Republic:
Francisco Liriano
Alexi Casilla
Carlos Gomez

Australia:
Luke Hughes (Twins AAA 3B)

Venezuela:
Jose Mijares

I'm probably missing some others but those are ones that come off the top of my head. It will be interesting to see what kind of participation the WBC gets from the MLB players and how the rosters turn out. Japan won last year and anything can happen since most of it just depends on a couple of games but I'm sure once again the four favorites will be the Americans, Dominicans, Cubans, and Japanese with Venezuela and Puerto Rico also making things interesting. Canada and Mexico could be spoilers but unlikely to win it all.

Boneheaded Gardy

I can never decide if I like Ron Gardenhire or not. He seems to get a lot out of his players (see 2008) but some of his lineup choices are maddening. I don't know what a player does to do to get on his good or bad side. Matt Garza was on his bad side and the Twins shipped him off to the Rays, where he is starting to look mighty good. Nick Punto is perhaps his favorite player ever and Gardenhire gave him way too many at-bats in 2007 and Punto posted some of the worst offensive numbers of all-time. Now it appears Delmon Young is on Gardy's bad side as well.

On Wednesday in Fargo, Twins manager Ron Gardenhire said the team's three starting outfielders should be Denard Span, Carlos Gomez and Michael Cuddyer.

"Those three guys have to play every day," Gardenhire told the Fargo Forum after speaking at a farm trade show. "Delmon is in the mix. He's a heck of a player, a heck of a talent. But to me, those three guys should be your outfield and then you go from there."

The Twins have been reportadly trying to see what kind of value they could get for Delmon this offseason. Looks like Gardenhire might be the one pushing for him to be traded. I thought he had a great season last year for a 22 year old. Remember this guy has all the talent in the world. But if you are trying to trade him, saying he wouldn't start over Cuddyer or Gomez does not increase his trade value! If I were Bill Smith I would make Gardy be quiet for the rest of the offseason.

There might be 2 shortstops I would trade Young for: JJ Hardy and Yunel Escobar. And I would hesitate before pulling the trigger on that one.

In other Twins news, it looks like it is down to the Twins and Dodgers in the running for 3B Casey Blake. If either team offers one more year or more money to their current offers, Blake will sign with them. I will not complain about signing Blake, especially if it is just a 2 year deal. He is 35, but could be our best 3B since Koskie. Plus we wouldn't give anything up for Blake, since he is a free-agent. That way we could have all our trade bait still available to fill the much larger SS hole with something besides Gardy's favorite player ever, Nick Punto.

First Look at the Twins offseason

Perhaps the biggest lesson the Twins learned from 2008: they can contend, even though they lost Santana and Hunter, and they can contend now. Just two more runs and they would have made the playoffs. Clearly the team isn't needing a big overhaul like last offseason. I'm sure they will make some moves this offseason as usual. We will explore what possible moves they might make, and we will discuss the moves when they make them.

First lets explore where the Twins currently stand:

Catcher - Joe Mauer is the best catcher in the game. He just won his 2nd batting title in 3 years and might win his first gold glove this offseason. The only think he could possibly improve on is HR power. Mike Redmond is a great backup. The Twins will pick up Mike Redmond's option for 2009. They are set at catcher.

First Base - Justin Morneau is solid all around like Joe Mauer. He played all 162 games this season and will likely finish 2nd in the MVP voting. He is locked up on a bargain contract through 2013. He doesn't really need a backup, although I've heard rumors that Jason Kubel is learning 1B so Morneau can DH when he needs a break.

Second Base - Alexi Casilla was a very pleasant surprise for the Twins in 2008. He'll be the #2 hitter in the lineup for a long time.

Shortstop - Now the Twins start to see some problems. Nick Punto is a free agent. I am hoping they don't resign him. Ron Gardenhire love Nick Punto like his own son. Ok he was alright in 2008 but he had one of the worst seasons ever in 2007. The Twins need a new SS. Casilla can play SS or 2B so look for them to fill one of those holes.

Third Base - Brian Buscher was solid in 2008, he hit around .300 and had he played the whole season he would have been on pace for 100 RBI. For some reason the Twins aren't sold on him. They do have 2 or 3 decent options in the minors that we will explore another day, but I wouldn't be surprised if they traded for someone like Adrian Beltre. Another big question mark.

Left Field - Delmon Young disappointed some with his .290, 10 HR campaign in 2008. I have one word for all those who think he should be traded: 22. Yes he is just 22 and very young. This guy was the top prospect in all of baseball 2 years ago when he was called up by the Rays! He was the #1 overall pick like Joe Mauer was! You don't give up on a guy like that. I remember Mauer and Morneau were a little underwhelming their first year in the majors as well. This guy is going to be a beast in the lineup. You don't give up on him early like the Twins did with David Ortiz.

Center Field - Carlos Gomez. See above. Disappointing year, but he is just 22 and has all the talent in the world. Fastest player in baseball, best defensive CF in baseball, you stick with him. He will get better exponentially.

Right Field - Denard Span. Span was the biggest, and most pleasant surprise of 2008. He took over the leadoff spot and was 2nd on the Twins in on-base percentage. He is a centerfielder so he covers right field as well as anybody. You also have Michael Cuddyer who was injured in 2008 but was signed to a big 3 year deal.

Designated Hitter - Jason Kubel. Was second on the team in HR with 20. Has a good bat.

Starting pitchers - Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, and Kevin Slowey are going to form the top of the rotation for a long time. Expect the Twins to lock them up to long term deals. Blackburn and Perkins are solid as well but they can be replaced by the Twins pitching depth.

Relief Pitchers - Getting Pat Neshek back will be huge in 2009. Losing Neshek cost the Twins the playoffs in 2008. Jose Mijares was called up in September and was lights out. Look for Mijares in the 7th, Neshek in the 8th, and Nathan in the 9th. Guerrier and Crain just need some rest. Craig Breslow was a good addition as well. Dennys Reyes will be a free agent, and probably let go with the emergence of Breslow and Mijares. Phil Humber and Boof Bonser also figure into the pitching plan somewhere.



SUMMARY
Positions Set: C, 1B, one of 2B/SS, LF, CF, RF, DH, SP, RP.
Holes to fill: one of 2B/SS, 3B, maybe another reliever.
Surpluss players: One of Span/Young/Gomez/Cuddyer/Kubel. Blackburn, Perkins, Bonser, Humber.
Players likely gone: Nick Punto, Dennys Reyes
Estimated payroll: $49 million
Payroll room: up to $35 million (yes the Twins could actually go sign a big free agent or two, or make a big trade)


The biggest question is what to do with Span/Young/Gomez/Cuddyer/Kubel. 5 excellent players, with only 4 positions (LF/CF/RF/DH) to fill. Who do you make as trade bait? Cuddyer is my choice, but he is likely the least attractive.


In future posts we will discuss what to do with the surpluss of pitching and outfielders, what prospects could help in 2009 like Span, Casilla, Buscher, Blackburn, Slowey, Perkins, and Mijares did in 2008, a new top 20 Twins prospect list, potential trade targets, and potential free agents to be signed.

Twins Notes

-Carlos Gomez has 25 bunt singles this year. He has more bunt singles than any other team in the major leagues. Houston has 24 on the year. The Twins lead the majors with 50 bunt singles. Gomez, Span, and Casilla are some of the fastest players in baseball.

-Scouts have been saying that Justin Morneau has the potential to become one of the greatest players ever to play baseball. Since July 7, Morneau has hit safely in 17 of 20 games, is batting .380 with 10 doubles, 17 runs, 17 walks, six home runs and 21 RBI. In those 20 games, he has a .494 on-base percentage and a .775 slugging percentage. In the Chicago series, Morneau hit .357 with two homers and 10 RBI. He was 1-for-4 with a three-run homer in the fifth inning in last Thursday night's 10-6 victory over Chicago.

-Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, and Glen Perkins could be the Minnesota Twins starting five for years to come. The young 5 man rotation is the envy of the league. It reminds me of what Atlanta assembled in the early 90's with Glavine, Smoltz, Avery, and Maddux.

Liriano had a 2.16 ERA in 2006, Blackburn has a 3.56 ERA, Baker -3.86, Slowey - 4.21, Perkins - 4.38. They are all 26 or younger. Liriano is still just 24. Just imagine if the Twins had kept Santana and Garza... Santana/Liriano/Garza/Baker/Blackburn would be the best rotation in the majors.

Cuddyer on the DL

Michael Cuddyer was injured in last night's victory. The Twins placed him on the DL and called up Denard Span to replace him. It is tough to lose your #3 hitter, but Delmon Young should be hitting third and now he will probably get his chance. Plus this means that Jason Kubel, arguably the Twins best hitter(that is another post for another time) will be playing everyday. So actually this just might jumpstat the Twins offense.

And how about Gomez! 3 hits last night, he is hitting .450 and leading the majors with 4 steals.

A look ahead: 2010 Minnesota Twins

In 2010 the Twins new ballpark will open. This will be a huge day for the Twins shall be getting out of the Metrodome, perhaps the worst baseball ballpark in MLB. The Twins aren’t necessarily rebuilding but they are regrouping, trying to be a World Series caliber team. It’s not a bad idea, most this team is really young especially the core. Only Michael Cuddyer and Joe Nathan are over 27. So the 2008 Twins are kind of like the beta 2010 Twins. Here is what the 2010 Twins might look like on opening day:

C Joe Mauer
1B Justin Morneau
2B Alexi Casilla
SS Trevor Plouffe
3B Danny Valencia
LF Delmon Young
CF Carlos Gomez
RF Michael Cuddyer
DH Jason Kubel

SP Francisco Liriano
SP Scott Baker
SP Kevin Slowey
SP Phil Humber
SP Deolis Guerra

CL Joe Nathan

And the lineup:

CF Gomez
C Mauer
LF Young
1B Morneau
RF Cuddyer
DH Kubel
3B Valencia
SS Plouffe
2B Casilla

All of those guys have great potential. Only Joe Nathan and perhaps Michael Cuddyer have reached their ceiling. Casilla and Gomez could combine for over 100 SB. Mauer/Young/Morneau/Cuddyer/Kubel will be one of the best middle of the lineup combinations. Valencia and Plouffe have great offensive potential as well. Valencia will be the best Twins 3B since Koskie and Plouffe will have the most extra-base hits for a Twins shortstop in a long long time.


And the rotation, well it could be amazing. Liriano could end up being the best pitcher on the planet (yes, better than Santana), Baker has the potential to rack up high strikeout totals and low walks issued, Slowey reminds many of Greg Maddux and Brad Radke due to his command and deception, Humber was the #3 pick in his draft for a reason, and Deolis Guerra should be ready for the rotation around this time and will help anchor the top of the rotation for a very long time.

This post comes at a bad time. 2008 just started, I know. The Twins could be very good this year. But they are more likely to disappoint. So if the season gets to be rough then we can just look 2 years to the future and therein lies great hope and potential.

Meet the Jose Reyes of the American League

Watching the game tonight made me realize that Carlos Gomez is really going to be a special player. In fact Francisco Liriano better look out because if Gomez keeps up the way he's been playing in spring training and the game tonight then he could take over the title of my favorite baseball player.

Gomez had 2 SB (including one where it was a pitchout and he still beat the throw) and double, a single (by a perfect bunt) and a walk. That is one good opening night. Carlos Gomez is going to be amazing!

Roster Moves

The following players were optioned to Rochester today:
RHP Phil Humber
OF Denard Span
OF Jason Pridie
IF Brian Buscher

All four of these guys had a decent chance at making the team. With both Span and Pridie being sent down this means that Carlos Gomez won the center field position. Gomez definitely is the most talented out of the three. Pridie, Span, and Gomez all had great springs. I wouldn’t have minded seeing Span being the CF for the first two months to delay free agency for Gomez for another year. Denard Span really has to be depressed today. Ever since he was drafted he had been heralded as the guy to replace Torii Hunter and now it appears that he will never get a shot at it.

Basically it boiled down to that Gomez could make a difference on the team right now. He’s really picked up his play over the past couple of weeks. In 15 games he has 10 steals, 1 HR, 4 doubles, 2 triples, and 12 runs while batting .286. Over a full season that projects to 108 steals, 11 HR, 65 doubles, 32 triples, and 194 runs. That is pretty darn good, although not a good projection from such a small sample size. It has been a long time since anybody has stolen more than 100 bases in one season. This dude is going to be a fantastic player. He will turn lots of singles into doubles, and he scores almost every time he gets on base due to his speed. Carlos Gomez is the most exciting everyday Twins player in a long time.

So the 13 position players are set. Here they are:
C - Joe Mauer
Backup C - Mike Redmond
1B - Justin Morneau
2B - Brendan Harris
SS - Adam Everett
3B - Mike Lamb
Backup IF - Nick Punto
Backup IF - Matt Tolbert
LF - Delmon Young
CF - Carlos Gomez
RF - Michael Cuddyer
Backup OF - Craig Monroe
DH - Jason Kubel

Indications are that Francisco Liriano might start off in the minors to get him up to full speed. Here are the 12 pitchers to start the season:

SP Livan Hernandez
SP Scott Baker
SP Boof Bonser
SP Kevin Slowey
SP Nick Blackburn

CL Joe Nathan
RP Pat Neshek
RP Matt Guerrier
RP Dennys Reyes
RP Jesse Crain
RP Juan Rincon
RP Brian Bass

Now Liriano might make the team, that decision hasn’t been made. If he does the Blackburn will be sent down.

Opening Day is next week when the Twins host Torii Hunter and the Los Angeles Angels.

Friday Notes

-For all you depressed Cougar fans out there, don't say I didn't warn you. You should be smarter than to expect a first-round win.

-The Jazz looked terrible last night. I think the Lakers just moved to #1 on my teams the Jazz don't want to face in the playoffs list. They won the series 3-1 and they are the first team to beat Utah at home this year. And they did so in a convincing manner. I think Kobe gets up for the Jazz games, he gets riled up over the Jazz booing his ex-Jazz teammates (Malone and Fisher.)

-I don't know how the Twins can take Denard Span over Carlos Gomez for the CF job this season. Ok Span has a better On-Base Percentage but Gomez could end up being the most exciting Twins player ever. The dude already has 9 steals in spring training, a home run, two triples and three doubles. I am starting to wonder how many bases this guy could steal in a whole season. His on-base percentage isn't the best but he scores almost every time he gets on base.

-Boston definitely is my pick to win it all this year after beating Dallas, San Antonio, and Houston all in a row on the road this week. Sure, they have the best record because they play in the East, but they would probably have the best record if they played in the West.

Looking at the Johan Santana Trade: Carlos Gomez

Carlos Gomez
Center Field
Born: 12/85
Bats: Right

YEAR LV PA AVG OBP SLG HR XBH BB SO
2005 A- 539 .275 .331 .376 8 27 32 88
2006 AA 486 .281 .350 .423 7 39 27 97
2007 AAA 157 .286 .363 .414 2 12 15 23
MLB 139 .232 .288 .304 2 5 8 27

Carlos Gomez was signed out of the Dominican Republic as a 16-year-old in 2002. Last year he was the NL’s youngest player. He struggled, hitting just .232 with an on-base percentage of .288 and a slugging percentage of .304 in 58 games, and missed about two months with a broken left hand. Those numbers shouldn’t be too concerning as he was just 21.

In 156 games between Double-A and Triple-A, Gomez hit .282 with a .354 on-base percentage and a slugging percentage of .421 with nine homers, 51 total extra-base hits, 58 steals, and a 120-to-42 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Those are great numbers for someone his age playing at such a high level. His biggest weakness is that he lacks plate discipline. Gomez has more power potential than most speedy players. If Gomez can hit for power and average he will be a tremendous player because he is the fastest player in baseball.

Gomez also is an excellent defensive center fielder. He has great range and a tremendous arm. The Twins will have the best outfield arms in the majors with him, Delmon Young, and Michael Cuddyer. Gomez could quickly make fans forget about Torii Hunter but he likely won’t be amazing this year, and could use a few more months in AAA.

Looking at the Johan Santana Trade: Deolis Guerra

Deolis Guerra
Starter
Born: 4/89
Throws: Right

YEAR LV G GS ERA IP H HR SO BB
2006 A- 17 17 2.20 81.2 59 3 64 37
2007 A+ 21 20 4.01 89.2 80 9 66 25

Deolis Guerra was signed out of Venezuela for a $700,000 bonus as a 16-year-old in 2005. He is a stocky, 6-foot-5 right-hander who wont be 21 until the middle of 2010. He had his debut shortly after his 17th birthday and started his first game at high Single-A last season before turning 18. He was the lone teenage pitcher in the entire league and the average hitter he faced was 23 years old. His numbers plus the age difference is very impressive.

Since his 2006 debut, Guerra has a 3.27 ERA, 135-to-65 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and a .228 opponent's batting average in 178.2 innings. Those numbers are fantastic for someone who's faced advanced competition at such a young age. It is very understandable why the Twins wanted him as one of the centerpieces in the Johan Santana trade.

Guerra can throw in the mid-90s. and being so large and young he should be able to develop a big-time fastball. Guerra's changeup is reportedly his best pitch. Guerra has the highest ceiling as anyone in the Twins system. He could end up the Santana trade look great if he turns out the way people think he might. But young pitchers face numerous obstacles and are far from a sure thing. If Guerra turns out to be nothing then more pressure is on Carlos Gomez and one of Kevin Mulvey or Philip Humber to meet expectations for the Twins to have received a good haul in the Santana trade.

The Confident Carlos Gomez

The Minnesota Twins are left without a center fielder after Torii Hunter left via free agency. There are 3 possible replacements: Denard Span, and two players the Twins brought in from trades: the Dominican Carlos Gomez and Jason Pridie. The three are competing during spring training to see who will be the Twins starting center fielder. You wouldn’t think that there is a competition after talking to Carlos Gomez.

A reporter asked Gomez how he thought he could play in the Metrodome:

“If Torii Hunter can catch the ball there, why can’t I catch it there?”

But wait, there’s more.

“They don’t have no speed like me. I know I can help this team. Especially when I hit ahead of Morneau and the catcher and the other guy.”

He’s referring to some catcher named Joe Mauer and another guy named Michael Cuddyer.

“They will all have more RBIs,”

Gomez gets his speed from his dad:

“My dad was fast,” Gomez said. “When I was a kid and I worked out with my older friends, they all worked out so hard for their running. I do nothing. They say, ‘Why are you so fast when you don’t do nothing?’ I tell them that my dad was fast.”

On Friday Gomez had two hits, including a triple, two runs, and a stolen base.

After the game, Twins beat reporter told him it seemed like he was in the pitchers’ heads.

“That’s good,” he said in that cool voice. “When the pitcher thinks only about the leadoff hitter, he doesn’t think about the other guys. Like Morneau — probably this year, he has a better year. Because [the pitcher] thinks more Gomez, Gomez — first base. He has to be quicker [to home plate], and he throws more fastballs to the catcher.

“You know, he’s scared to throw breaking balls, and I steal second easy.

“And now I’m at second. Whatever base hit, I score.

“They’re scared when I am on the base. They have to think too much, throw a lot of [pitch outs] to throw me out.

“Mauer probably hits second in the lineup. He’s got good patience, and he kill this league this year.”

Return of Liriano

Today, Francisco Liriano pitched in his first game since 2006. He pitched 1.2 innings, gave up 2 hits and one walk and struck out Manny Ramirez. He was only throwing 90 MHP. He was limited to a pitch count of 40, hence being taken out after only 1.2 innings. It was a very successful debut. The goal was to get Liriano in a game situation, face MLB hitters, and most importantly, stay healthy. He did all of the above while not giving up any runs. You will be hearing a lot about Francisco Liriano on this blog. He is my favorite player, due to many reasons. He was the best pitcher in baseball when he was healthy in 2006, even better than Johan Santana. And he is from San Cristobal, Dominican Republic, a city I lived in for almost five months in 2006. He is a big hero in the DR. When I was there every game he pitched in was on national TV. He now has a couple of fellow Dominicans on the team with speedsters Carlos Gomez and Alexi Casilla.

If Liriano can return to form, he will more make up for the loss of Santana. Here’s why: Liriano is very similar to Santana. Santana has the games best changeup, but the Twins pitching coach said that Liriano’s is very similar to Santana’s. But the thing that makes Liriano better is his slider, which everyone says is the best slider they’ve ever seen. A Twin and an ex-Twin agree. Joe Mauer says Liriano has the best stuff he’s ever caught, and Hunter says if he had to chose between Liriano and Santana (assuming they were the same age) he would take Liriano because he has all the nasty pitches Santana has, but he also has the best slider in baseball.

Tim’s Minnesota Twins Top Prospects

1. Carlos Gomez, CF ETA: 2008

A prospect the Twins received in the Johan Santana trade. He is the best all-around athlete in the Twins system now. He is the fastest runner in the Twins organization if not the major leagues. He has power to hit a lot of double and a good number of home runs. He has a cannon arm and is an excellent defender. He is still very raw but will likely be the Twins opening day starting center fielder and leadoff hitter if he has a solid spring training.


2. Deolis Guerra, RHP ETA: 2010-2011

He is somewhat similar to Gomez, a player received from the Mets who has tons of potential but is still somewhat raw. He is from Venezuela and is only 18 years old. He has a huge body frame and has the potential to be an ace and be the Twins #2 starter behind Francisco Liriano.


3. Tyler Robertson, LHP ETA: 2010

6-5, 225 pound, 19 year old lefty. He has three solid different pitches. Last year he struck out 123 batters in 102 innings in A ball. Hitters hit just .227 off of him. He had an ERA of 2.29 and looks to be a top of the rotation starter. Should start the year in AA ball.


4. Anthony Swarzak, RHP ETA: 2009
Anthony Swarzak is a young right-hander in AA. He has hit 95 mph on the radar gun and his curveball is his out pitch and his changeup gives him plenty of strikeouts as well. .Swarzak was the fifth of six pitchers the Twins selected in the first three rounds of the 2004 draft, but he has emerged as one of their top prospects. He has the potential to be a #2 starting pitcher.


5. Ben Revere, CF ETA: 2011
The Twins first round draft choice in 2007. Baseball America said he was the fastest player in the draft. He had a great first year in the minor leagues, with 10 triples and 21 steals in 50 games, to go along with a .388 on-base percentage and a .461 slugging percentage. One problem is that he is unlikely to develop home run power.


6. Jeff Manship, RHP ETA: 2010
The Twins took him in the 14th round of the draft, in 2006. Manship posted a 1.26 ERA in his 14-inning pro debut. Last year he dominated low Single-A with a 1.51 ERA and 77-to-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 77.2 innings. He was then promoted to high Single-A and had a 3.15 ERA there. So Manship had a hugely successful first full season. He doesn’t have overpowering stuff but he should be at least a mid-rotation starter.


7. Kevin Mulvey, RHP ETA: 2008
Acquired from the Mets in the Santana trade. Was the Mets Minor League Pitcher of the Year. He has modest strikeout numbers, but is very good at keeping the ball in the park. He’s just given up 5 home runs in 173 innings. Should develop into a solid #3 or #4 starting pitcher.


8. Trevor Plouffe, SS ETA: 2009

The Twins first round draft pick in 2004. He struggled at low Single-A and high Single-A over the first two seasons. Despite this, the Twins put him in AA as a 20 year old. He had the best year of his career with 9 home runs and 48 extra-base hits. His 37 doubles ranked third in the league. Plouffe has been pushed through the minors quickly, but he is just 21 and he is headed in the right direction.


9. Chris Parmalee RF ETA: 2011-2012

Drafted by the Twins with the 20th overall pick in the 2006 draft. He had a great first pro season with a .369 on-base percentage and a .532 slugging percentage. He had a disappointing last season, and he struck out in 27 percent of his plate appearances. He did rank in the league’s top 10 in homers. He looks like he will develop into a major power threat, since he has 23 homers, 63 extra-base hits in just 184 games as a teenager. But he needs to improve his .249 batting average and 193 strikeouts to be a potential impact bat.


10. Wilson Ramos C ETA: 2011-2012

The Twins signed Ramos of Venezuela as a 16-year-old in 2004. Wilson Ramos made his pro debut at rookie-ball in 2006 and hit .286 with three homers and 16 total extra-base hits, in 46 games. Last year he had a great season and adjusting for his age, level of competition, defensive position, and offensive environment, Ramos' performance was the best of any position player in the Twins' minor-league system. It is tough to say how well Ramos will do in the future because he is a teenage catcher. But Ramos has hit .290 through his first 119 games and has thrown out 41% of basestealers. It looks like he could develop some power as well. If he does reach the majors, he possesses the greatest threat to consider moving Joe Mauer from catcher to 3B.

2008 Minnesota Twins

Presenting your 2008 Minnesota Twins


CF Carlos Gomez
This speedy Dominican was acquired from the Mets in the Johan Santana trade. He could eventually be the first player to steal 100+ bases in a season since Rickey Henderson. Faster than Jose Reyes. 5-tool player.

DH Jason Kubel
This should be Kubel’s breakout season. He was once a very highly ranked prospect like Morneau and Mauer before a serious knee injury. He showed lots of potential last season.

C Joe Mauer
2007 was a down year for him. He might not win the batting title this year like in 2006 but look for his power and home run numbers to go up exponentially this year.

LF Delmon Young
The best new member of the Twins is about the best young hitter in the game. The Twins acquired him in the Garza trade. He might put up just as good of numbers as Torii Hunter did last year. This is his second year in the majors.

1B Justin Morneau
He slumped big time in the second half of last year. Before that he was 2nd in the league in most offensive stats. Cracking the 40 home run mark isn’t out of the question for this slugger. He needs to have a big year after signing the biggest contract ever given to a Minnesota Twin.

RF Michael Cuddyer
The best outfield arm in the majors should look to put up solid numbers again this year. Signed an extension with the Twins in the offseason.

3B Mike Lamb
The Twins first REAL 3B sine Corey Koskie. Thank goodness the Twins signed him so we don’t have to put up with another season of Nick Punto. He should surprise a lot of people with his bat, has 20 HR potential although the glove isn’t great.

2B Brendan Harris
Acquired for Jason Bartlett during the offseason. Has better bat than Bartlett and should put up 12 - 15 HR and have one of the best seasons with the bat for the Twins since Knoblauch.

SS Adam Everett
The top defensive player in the majors. His bat is not great, Punto-esque, but he more than makes up for it with his glove.


LHP Francisco Liriano
If he returns to his 2006 form, he will make Twins fans forget Johan Santana quicker. He was pitching better than Santana when he was healthy, but after Tommy-John surgery he is not a guarantee to pitch like before. The closest thing to a Santana clone in the majors.

RHP Scott Baker
Had a great last year topped by a perfect game going into the 9th inning vs the Royals. Should be a solid #2 starter.

RHP Boof Bonser
The Twins need him to step up big. They won’t be as patient as they were with him in 2007. He did lose 20 pounds in the off season and could rebound to be a solid pitcher like he was for much of 2006.

RHP Kevin Slowey
Led the AAA league in ERA and it wasn’t even close. This guy has ridiculous control, he is frequently compared to Brad Radke.

RHP Glen Perkins
Perkins was injured for most of last year. This spot could be taken by Brian Duensing, Nick Blackburn, Phil Humber, or Kevin Mulvey. The Twins also might sign a veteran pitcher to help guide the young pitching staff along.



Bullpen

Closer Joe Nathan
Set-up Pat Neshek
Matt Guerrier
Jesse Crain
Juan Rincon
Dennys Reyes

The Twins return their formidable bullpen from the year before with a healthy Jesse Crain. Nathan might be traded but he still remains the top closer in the game. Neshek and Guerrier are fantastic in the 7th and 8th innings. Reyes could rebound to be unhittable like he was in 2006, and Rincon is pitching better after having a couple of down years. The Twins should once again have one of the top bullpens in the league.


Players Lost

Johan Santana
Torii Hunter
Carlos Silva
Jason Bartlett
Matt Garza
Jason Tyner
Lew Ford
Luis Rodriguez
Matt LeCroy


Players gained
Craig Monroe
Adam Everett
Mike Lamb
Deolis Guerra
Kevin Mulvey
Phil Humber
Delmon Young
Carlos Gomez
Brendan Harris
Zach Day
Livan Hernandez

So what does 2008 hold for the Minnesota Twins? 2007 was a huge disappointment after having one of the most talented Twins teams ever finish third place in the division. Then the Twins lost key players such as Santana, Hunter, Garza, Silva, and Bartlett in the offseason. They did improve their offense with such players as Young, Gomez, Harris, and Lamb. Adding Liriano back to the rotation is huge for the Twins but he is a big question mark after coming off of surgery and missing all of 2007. It is tough to say how the Twins will do in 2008. My guess is that they will score more runs with the new offense, but give up more runs with the loss of Santana, Silva, and Garza.

5 things that will make the Twins still revelant this year:

1. They have the best outfield arms in the majors. Cuddyer was #1 last year and Young was #2. Gomez also has a cannon arm. Teams won’t be trying to take that extra base.

2. Mauer, Morneau, and Young are three of the best young hitters in baseball. Kubel could join that group this year and Cuddyer is solid as well.

3. Their pitching rotation is full of great young pitchers. It could be one of the better young staffs in baseball led by Francisco Liriano who is a potential ace.

4. Joe Nathan leads one of the best bullpens in baseball. If the Twins have the lead going into the 7th inning stretch, they’ll likely keep it.

5. Nick Punto and the piranas are no more. Punto will be sitting on the bench, and Tyner is no longer on the team. Brendan Harris and Mike Lamb are two new infielders who should hit 30 home runs between the two of them. And Kubel should finally be a good DH for the Twins.



5 big problems:

1. The Twins have been a sub .500 team when Santana was not pitching over the past few years. His loss is going to sting.

2. They lost their best hitter from 2007 in Torii Hunter. And his leadership/charisma will be missed as well.

3. Detroit might have the best team in baseball right now and Cleveland isn’t too shabby either. It is a long shot at best to make the playoffs.

4. The Twins didn’t get lots of immediate help from the Santana trade. Carlos Gomez could be very good, or he might his .220 and not be on base enough to steal 40 bases.

5. If the offense continues to fail no help can be found in the minors. Most of the Twins prospects are pitchers and practically all the good hitters are at least down at single A ball. There is not another young Morneau to call up if some people are struggling.