Swarzaked

Anthony Swarzak pitched a great major league debut for the Twins. I'll take 7 innings and 0 runs anytime. Swarzak is the first Twin pitcher in history to pitch 7 shutout innings in their first major league start. That is very impressive. I'm sure he won't be in the rotation when Perkins returns, but he might be sent to the bullpen. It is nice knowing that there is another quality young starting pitcher available if needed. I wonder if the Twins would ever trade one of their young starting pitchers... I'd trade Perkins or Blackburn for a great young shortstop or second baseman, but not a third baseman. Even though Joe Crede is only signed for this year, I'm not worried about the future of third base for the Twins. Their top prospect in the upper levels of the minors is 3B Danny Valencia. He is killing the ball at AA right now, and I'm sure I'll do an article on him in the next few days...

The other story of the game was Joe Mauer, hitting his 9th home run of the year, matching his home run total from last year in just 21 games. No doubt, this guy has been the best hitter in baseball this month. It sure is fun to see him hitting .429, getting on-base .516% of the time and slugging .844. Those are just sick numbers! He's on pace for 60 homers and 185 RBI's. I know he's not likely to keep that pace up for the whole season, but if he did, he would have the greatest non-steroid offensive season of all-time. At his pace he could hit over .400, break Roger Maris pre-steroid HR mark of 61, and win the triple crown. I know that is extremely unlikely and premature, but it is fun to dream. And the kid is just 26.

It has been great to see Michael Cuddyer return to form. The guy is just locked in. Hits for the cycle last night, and now is second on the team with 30 RBI. Plus 7 homers. It has been great to have a right-handed power bat in the lineup, especially since Delmon Young isn't developing the power we'd hoped to have seen from him at this point.

At this point Mauer and Morneau have to be the best 1-2 punch in the majors. And Span, Mauer, Morneau, Kubel, and Cuddyer form a nice little offensive juggernaut. And Crede is not a bad guy to have at #6 with his seven homers. Now if the bottom third of the lineup would just start hitting, the Twins would have an amazing lineup all the way through. But it needs to start with Delmon Young. He should return to the lineup today, and I hope he starts heating up now. He usually starts off the season slowly, so hopefully he is past that now.

Twins destroy White Sox 20-1

I think the box score speaks for itself today. Joe Mauer has a ridiculous 1.319 OPS. Not to mention 8 home runs in 19 games. If he keeps this pace up, he will be the AL MVP. Also, Michael Cuddaver seems to have woken up and he is on track to have a season similar to his remarkable 2006 year.

The batting order seems like a silly thing to talk about while the pitching on this team has been so horrendous. But we'll do so anyways. The biggest problem with Gardy's batting order has been the #2 spot. Probably 90% or more of the at-bats there this season have been filled by the likes of Alexi Casilla and Matt Tolbert, who were both hitting under the Mendoza line. This is obviously not what you want from your #2 hitter. You want someone who gets on base at a 35 or 40 percent clip, so that the heart of your order has runs to drive in. A little speed/good baserunning skills is a good thing to have as well. This is probably the perfect spot to slot in Joe Mauer. (Although now that he is hammering homers every other day, he is a great #3 hitter as well.) Gardenhire might have figured that out today, and he plugged Mauer into the #2 spot, and just like magic the Twins go off for 20 runs. Now of course nobody scores 20 runs a game, but I think it would help the offense run a little better. Here is my preferred lineup to maximize run scoring potential:

CF Span
C Mauer
1B Morneau
DH Kubel
RF Cuddyer
3B Crede
LF Young
2B Tolbert
SS Harris

I chose Harris over Tolbert in the 9th spot because they both see roughly the same amount of at-bats, but I think it's preferrable to have your worst hitter in the 8th spot rather than the 9th. The reason is that the 9th guy isn't that far away from your power hitters, so why would you want an automatic out 2 batters before Mauer, Morneau, and Kubel come up?

Another decent reason to shift up Mauer, Morneau, and Kubel up one spot is that they will receive a slight increase of at-bats, being a little closer to the top of the order.

Anyways, batting orders are largely overrated, but there are a few things you can easily avoid that can plague your lineup. Perhaps Gardenhire has figured out that one of them is don't place an automatic out in the lineup right before your best hitters come to bat.

Projected HR Totals

From ESPN statistics, here are what their projected home run totals are for the Twins:

52 - Joe Mauer
50 - Justin Morneau
27 - Joe Crede
22 - Jason Kubel
17 - Michael Cuddyer
11 - Brendan Harris
8 - Denard Span
8 - Brian Buscher
6 - Delmon Young
0 - Carlos Gomez
0 - Nick Punto
0 - Matt Tolbert
0 - Mike Redmond

And time to redo my predictions:
Justin Morneau - 38
Joe Mauer - 34
Jason Kubel - 26
Joe Crede - 22
Michael Cuddyer - 18
Delmon Young - 13
Carlos Gomez - 10
Brendan Harris - 9
Denard Span - 7
Brian Buscher - 6
Alexi Casilla - 4
Nick Punto - 1
Matt Tolbert - 1
Mike Redmond - 0

Jason Kubel - Twins Cleanup Hitter

Wow I just watched another incredible Twins victory! They might not have a lot of wins so far this season but they have already had 3 incredibly memorable ones.

Tonight Jason Kubel hit for the cycle and hit a grand slam HR to complete the cycle in the 8th and put the Twins up 11-9. That was exciting! Kubel was an extremely well-regarded prospect, some saying he was as great of a hitter as Mauer and Morneau, plus he played good outfield defense. But a knee injury a few years ago in the fall really hurt him and the next few years he regained strength but never really got back to his old level. People have been picking him to breakout for a few years now, and this might be the year it happens. I hope he is the everyday DH from here on out. Mauer and Morneau are the two best hitters and Kubel and Span are easily the next two best. I wonder how much longer people will pitch to Morneau to get to Kubel (which is what happened before the grand slam.) I think Morneau will start to see better pitches and he too will have better numbers. When Mauer gets back I'd love to see the top 4 of the batting order go Span/Mauer/Morneau/Kubel. I think batting orders are overrated but I do think it is important to get your best players more at-bats than anybody else and sticking them at the top of the order is the best way to do it. Plus Span and Mauer get on-base around 40% of the time, which creates excellent RBI opportunities for Kubel and Morneau.

Ranking the Twins position players

Note: These rankings take into account offense AND defense. These aren't necessarily based off numbers. This is how I'd rank their value for the next few months:

1. Mauer - Arguably more valuable to the Twins than any other player is to his team in the majors.
2. Morneau - I'd hate to imagine where the Twins would be without his bat.
3. Span - Gets on base at a great rate, has gold glove defense at all three outfield positions.
4. Kubel - Has great bat, but Span's defense is much better.
5. Cuddyer - The next five could be ranked in almost any order. Cuddyer is a nice right-handed bat with a great arm.
6. Crede - Superb defense, with some nice pop in the bat, although he could get on base at a better clip.
7. Casilla - Has developed into a superb #2 hitter, and I love his range at 2B, although he still makes silly mistakes.
8. Gomez - If his new plate approach develops him into a more patient hitter and he develops a bit more power, he easily cracks into the top five, as he is already the best defensive outfielder in the majors.
9. Young - Don't know where to stick this guy. I'd love to stick him at #3 on this list as that is where his potential is. Still is very young for the majors, we'll see how this season turns out.
10. Punto - He is better than I give him credit for, defense is great, although very over-rated.
11. Harris - Decent bat, can play all over the infield, although not very well.
12. Redmond - One of the best backup catchers in the majors hands-down.
13. Buscher - I really like his bat, his defense is likely why the Twins signed Crede.

First Look at the Twins offseason

Perhaps the biggest lesson the Twins learned from 2008: they can contend, even though they lost Santana and Hunter, and they can contend now. Just two more runs and they would have made the playoffs. Clearly the team isn't needing a big overhaul like last offseason. I'm sure they will make some moves this offseason as usual. We will explore what possible moves they might make, and we will discuss the moves when they make them.

First lets explore where the Twins currently stand:

Catcher - Joe Mauer is the best catcher in the game. He just won his 2nd batting title in 3 years and might win his first gold glove this offseason. The only think he could possibly improve on is HR power. Mike Redmond is a great backup. The Twins will pick up Mike Redmond's option for 2009. They are set at catcher.

First Base - Justin Morneau is solid all around like Joe Mauer. He played all 162 games this season and will likely finish 2nd in the MVP voting. He is locked up on a bargain contract through 2013. He doesn't really need a backup, although I've heard rumors that Jason Kubel is learning 1B so Morneau can DH when he needs a break.

Second Base - Alexi Casilla was a very pleasant surprise for the Twins in 2008. He'll be the #2 hitter in the lineup for a long time.

Shortstop - Now the Twins start to see some problems. Nick Punto is a free agent. I am hoping they don't resign him. Ron Gardenhire love Nick Punto like his own son. Ok he was alright in 2008 but he had one of the worst seasons ever in 2007. The Twins need a new SS. Casilla can play SS or 2B so look for them to fill one of those holes.

Third Base - Brian Buscher was solid in 2008, he hit around .300 and had he played the whole season he would have been on pace for 100 RBI. For some reason the Twins aren't sold on him. They do have 2 or 3 decent options in the minors that we will explore another day, but I wouldn't be surprised if they traded for someone like Adrian Beltre. Another big question mark.

Left Field - Delmon Young disappointed some with his .290, 10 HR campaign in 2008. I have one word for all those who think he should be traded: 22. Yes he is just 22 and very young. This guy was the top prospect in all of baseball 2 years ago when he was called up by the Rays! He was the #1 overall pick like Joe Mauer was! You don't give up on a guy like that. I remember Mauer and Morneau were a little underwhelming their first year in the majors as well. This guy is going to be a beast in the lineup. You don't give up on him early like the Twins did with David Ortiz.

Center Field - Carlos Gomez. See above. Disappointing year, but he is just 22 and has all the talent in the world. Fastest player in baseball, best defensive CF in baseball, you stick with him. He will get better exponentially.

Right Field - Denard Span. Span was the biggest, and most pleasant surprise of 2008. He took over the leadoff spot and was 2nd on the Twins in on-base percentage. He is a centerfielder so he covers right field as well as anybody. You also have Michael Cuddyer who was injured in 2008 but was signed to a big 3 year deal.

Designated Hitter - Jason Kubel. Was second on the team in HR with 20. Has a good bat.

Starting pitchers - Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, and Kevin Slowey are going to form the top of the rotation for a long time. Expect the Twins to lock them up to long term deals. Blackburn and Perkins are solid as well but they can be replaced by the Twins pitching depth.

Relief Pitchers - Getting Pat Neshek back will be huge in 2009. Losing Neshek cost the Twins the playoffs in 2008. Jose Mijares was called up in September and was lights out. Look for Mijares in the 7th, Neshek in the 8th, and Nathan in the 9th. Guerrier and Crain just need some rest. Craig Breslow was a good addition as well. Dennys Reyes will be a free agent, and probably let go with the emergence of Breslow and Mijares. Phil Humber and Boof Bonser also figure into the pitching plan somewhere.



SUMMARY
Positions Set: C, 1B, one of 2B/SS, LF, CF, RF, DH, SP, RP.
Holes to fill: one of 2B/SS, 3B, maybe another reliever.
Surpluss players: One of Span/Young/Gomez/Cuddyer/Kubel. Blackburn, Perkins, Bonser, Humber.
Players likely gone: Nick Punto, Dennys Reyes
Estimated payroll: $49 million
Payroll room: up to $35 million (yes the Twins could actually go sign a big free agent or two, or make a big trade)


The biggest question is what to do with Span/Young/Gomez/Cuddyer/Kubel. 5 excellent players, with only 4 positions (LF/CF/RF/DH) to fill. Who do you make as trade bait? Cuddyer is my choice, but he is likely the least attractive.


In future posts we will discuss what to do with the surpluss of pitching and outfielders, what prospects could help in 2009 like Span, Casilla, Buscher, Blackburn, Slowey, Perkins, and Mijares did in 2008, a new top 20 Twins prospect list, potential trade targets, and potential free agents to be signed.

The Span Man

The Twins new baseball field will be called Target Field. That sounds better than say, Land O' Lakes field (LOL Field just doesn't look good.)
Good to see Cuddyer is finally back from the DL.
And it is great to see Morneau take over the AL RBI lead.

Now to today's main post topic. Denard Span, the Span man. I, along with most people thought Denard Span was a wasted first round draft pick. He just never really had good numbers in the minors. That is why the Twins traded for a CF in the Santana trade. But the Span man got LASIK eye surgery in the offseason and that or maybe other things we don't know about have made all the difference. The guy is one of the best lead off players in the game. He is a CF but he has been playing mainly in RF because Gomez is the best defensive CF in the game, but Span has been perhaps the best defensive RF this season. Here is what his numbers translate to over a full 162 game season:
That my friends is a quality lead-off hitter. Isn't that what you want? Someone who gets lots of walks, who gets on base at a high clip and who has some speed and steals, and a little gap power as well. I wonder who the Twins would have traded for if they knew Span was going to play out of his mind like this.
.304 AVG (15th best in league)
.387 OBP (5th best in the league)
.447 SLG
86 RBI (17th in league)
36 SB (6th in league)
122 Runs (1st)
187 Hits (3rd)
35 Doubles (15th in league)
11 Triples (2nd in league)
13 Home Runs
80 BB (7th in league)
.834 OPS (26th)

Twins Notes

-Carlos Gomez has 25 bunt singles this year. He has more bunt singles than any other team in the major leagues. Houston has 24 on the year. The Twins lead the majors with 50 bunt singles. Gomez, Span, and Casilla are some of the fastest players in baseball.

-Scouts have been saying that Justin Morneau has the potential to become one of the greatest players ever to play baseball. Since July 7, Morneau has hit safely in 17 of 20 games, is batting .380 with 10 doubles, 17 runs, 17 walks, six home runs and 21 RBI. In those 20 games, he has a .494 on-base percentage and a .775 slugging percentage. In the Chicago series, Morneau hit .357 with two homers and 10 RBI. He was 1-for-4 with a three-run homer in the fifth inning in last Thursday night's 10-6 victory over Chicago.

-Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, and Glen Perkins could be the Minnesota Twins starting five for years to come. The young 5 man rotation is the envy of the league. It reminds me of what Atlanta assembled in the early 90's with Glavine, Smoltz, Avery, and Maddux.

Liriano had a 2.16 ERA in 2006, Blackburn has a 3.56 ERA, Baker -3.86, Slowey - 4.21, Perkins - 4.38. They are all 26 or younger. Liriano is still just 24. Just imagine if the Twins had kept Santana and Garza... Santana/Liriano/Garza/Baker/Blackburn would be the best rotation in the majors.

Cuddyer on the DL

Michael Cuddyer was injured in last night's victory. The Twins placed him on the DL and called up Denard Span to replace him. It is tough to lose your #3 hitter, but Delmon Young should be hitting third and now he will probably get his chance. Plus this means that Jason Kubel, arguably the Twins best hitter(that is another post for another time) will be playing everyday. So actually this just might jumpstat the Twins offense.

And how about Gomez! 3 hits last night, he is hitting .450 and leading the majors with 4 steals.

Roster Moves

The following players were optioned to Rochester today:
RHP Phil Humber
OF Denard Span
OF Jason Pridie
IF Brian Buscher

All four of these guys had a decent chance at making the team. With both Span and Pridie being sent down this means that Carlos Gomez won the center field position. Gomez definitely is the most talented out of the three. Pridie, Span, and Gomez all had great springs. I wouldn’t have minded seeing Span being the CF for the first two months to delay free agency for Gomez for another year. Denard Span really has to be depressed today. Ever since he was drafted he had been heralded as the guy to replace Torii Hunter and now it appears that he will never get a shot at it.

Basically it boiled down to that Gomez could make a difference on the team right now. He’s really picked up his play over the past couple of weeks. In 15 games he has 10 steals, 1 HR, 4 doubles, 2 triples, and 12 runs while batting .286. Over a full season that projects to 108 steals, 11 HR, 65 doubles, 32 triples, and 194 runs. That is pretty darn good, although not a good projection from such a small sample size. It has been a long time since anybody has stolen more than 100 bases in one season. This dude is going to be a fantastic player. He will turn lots of singles into doubles, and he scores almost every time he gets on base due to his speed. Carlos Gomez is the most exciting everyday Twins player in a long time.

So the 13 position players are set. Here they are:
C - Joe Mauer
Backup C - Mike Redmond
1B - Justin Morneau
2B - Brendan Harris
SS - Adam Everett
3B - Mike Lamb
Backup IF - Nick Punto
Backup IF - Matt Tolbert
LF - Delmon Young
CF - Carlos Gomez
RF - Michael Cuddyer
Backup OF - Craig Monroe
DH - Jason Kubel

Indications are that Francisco Liriano might start off in the minors to get him up to full speed. Here are the 12 pitchers to start the season:

SP Livan Hernandez
SP Scott Baker
SP Boof Bonser
SP Kevin Slowey
SP Nick Blackburn

CL Joe Nathan
RP Pat Neshek
RP Matt Guerrier
RP Dennys Reyes
RP Jesse Crain
RP Juan Rincon
RP Brian Bass

Now Liriano might make the team, that decision hasn’t been made. If he does the Blackburn will be sent down.

Opening Day is next week when the Twins host Torii Hunter and the Los Angeles Angels.

Friday Notes

-For all you depressed Cougar fans out there, don't say I didn't warn you. You should be smarter than to expect a first-round win.

-The Jazz looked terrible last night. I think the Lakers just moved to #1 on my teams the Jazz don't want to face in the playoffs list. They won the series 3-1 and they are the first team to beat Utah at home this year. And they did so in a convincing manner. I think Kobe gets up for the Jazz games, he gets riled up over the Jazz booing his ex-Jazz teammates (Malone and Fisher.)

-I don't know how the Twins can take Denard Span over Carlos Gomez for the CF job this season. Ok Span has a better On-Base Percentage but Gomez could end up being the most exciting Twins player ever. The dude already has 9 steals in spring training, a home run, two triples and three doubles. I am starting to wonder how many bases this guy could steal in a whole season. His on-base percentage isn't the best but he scores almost every time he gets on base.

-Boston definitely is my pick to win it all this year after beating Dallas, San Antonio, and Houston all in a row on the road this week. Sure, they have the best record because they play in the East, but they would probably have the best record if they played in the West.

The Confident Carlos Gomez

The Minnesota Twins are left without a center fielder after Torii Hunter left via free agency. There are 3 possible replacements: Denard Span, and two players the Twins brought in from trades: the Dominican Carlos Gomez and Jason Pridie. The three are competing during spring training to see who will be the Twins starting center fielder. You wouldn’t think that there is a competition after talking to Carlos Gomez.

A reporter asked Gomez how he thought he could play in the Metrodome:

“If Torii Hunter can catch the ball there, why can’t I catch it there?”

But wait, there’s more.

“They don’t have no speed like me. I know I can help this team. Especially when I hit ahead of Morneau and the catcher and the other guy.”

He’s referring to some catcher named Joe Mauer and another guy named Michael Cuddyer.

“They will all have more RBIs,”

Gomez gets his speed from his dad:

“My dad was fast,” Gomez said. “When I was a kid and I worked out with my older friends, they all worked out so hard for their running. I do nothing. They say, ‘Why are you so fast when you don’t do nothing?’ I tell them that my dad was fast.”

On Friday Gomez had two hits, including a triple, two runs, and a stolen base.

After the game, Twins beat reporter told him it seemed like he was in the pitchers’ heads.

“That’s good,” he said in that cool voice. “When the pitcher thinks only about the leadoff hitter, he doesn’t think about the other guys. Like Morneau — probably this year, he has a better year. Because [the pitcher] thinks more Gomez, Gomez — first base. He has to be quicker [to home plate], and he throws more fastballs to the catcher.

“You know, he’s scared to throw breaking balls, and I steal second easy.

“And now I’m at second. Whatever base hit, I score.

“They’re scared when I am on the base. They have to think too much, throw a lot of [pitch outs] to throw me out.

“Mauer probably hits second in the lineup. He’s got good patience, and he kill this league this year.”