Perkins on DL. Henn called up. Who else might be coming up?

Glen Perkins has been horrible over his past few starts, especially last night, and now we know why. Perkins told people after the game that he had been dealing with soreness in his elbow for a while. I still don't understand why players (mainly pitchers) try to play through pain, as they only end up hurting themselves and the team. No good ever comes from keeping an injury hidden, and trying to fight through it. Right Liriano and Neshek? They learned that lesson the hard way by getting Tommy John surgery, let's hope Perkins situation isn't as serious.

Lefty reliever Sean Henn was called up from AAA ball to take Perkins place on the roster. Henn is deserving, for in 15 games this year he has a 1.13 ERA with 6 saves. He has 17 hits and walked ten, but has struck out 32 in just 24 innings.

Calling Henn up should help bolster the bullpen, but it still forces the Twins to make a decision on who will take Perkins place in the rotation while he is injured. I see three options: R. A. Dickey, Anthony Swarzak, and Kevin Mulvey.

We know about Dickey, the knuckleballer, who is currently in the bullpen. He'd probably give you 5 to 7 innings while giving up 4 or 5 runs. Nothing spectacular, but he'd eat some innings. One problem is that if you use him as your starter, then you lose your long relief arm in the bullpen.

If I were the Twins GM, I would call up Anthony Swarzak. Swarzak was a 2nd round pick in 2004. He is pitching very well in AAA this year, and is probably the Twins best pitching prospect right now. He has made 7 starts so far this year. In 44 innings he has given up 11 walks, 40 hits, while striking out 32. He has a 2.25 ERA. For those of you who care about win-loss record (you shouldn't) he is 2-3. He also went 5-0 at AAA at the end of last season. I would love to see Swarzak in a Twins uniform this weekend. But if they don't choose Dickey or Swarzak, they might choose Kevin Mulvey.

Kevin Mulvey was a pitcher the Twins acquired in the Johan Santana trade. The Twins might like to bring him up to show that they did get some good value from the Santana trade (but if they really felt like doing that, they would be playing Carlos Gomez every day.) Mulvey has a 4.15 ERA in 34.2 innings so far. He has a better strikeout rate than Swarzak so far, he has 31 K's. But he has given up 19 walks and 34 hits. Clearly Swarzak has had the better year so far.

Who might be sent down or released? Catcher Jose Morales would be a top candidate. Other candidates would be Luis Ayala and Craig Breslow. I would release Luis Ayala, in my mind he has been the worst bullpen pitcher so far. Jesse Crain wouldn't be too far behind those guys, but I doubt the Twins would get rid of him so fast. Only Nathan, Mijares, and Guerrier are to be trusted at this point.

Who are the other top bullpen pitchers that the Twins could call up? They have two amazing relievers in AA, Anthony Slama and Rob Delaney. Slama has a 1.69 ERA, in 21.1 innings he he has a 33-to-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio while allowing just 13 hits. He hasn't given up a run in five straight appearances. Delaney has a 2.22 ERA in 28.1 innings with a 31-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He also hasn't given up a run in five straight appearances. Sick of seeing relievers give up homers late in games? These two have given up just two in 49.2 innings.

The thing that drives many Twins fans crazy is that they are only in AA, despite dominating every level they've pitched at. They should be in AAA at least by now. Slama spent all of last season at A ball despite posting some of the most incredible pitching stats you will see. The Twins are moving these two along much too slowly and now it is hurting them. Hopefully with Henn going to the Twins, one of Slama or Delaney will be promoted to AAA. These two hopefully will be great bullpen options for the Twins in a month or two. And next year the bullpen should look much better with Nathan, Neshek, Mijares, Slama, and Delaney in it.

Projected 2009 value of Twins roster

It looks like the Twins are content to go into 2009 with virtually the same team that they had in 2008. I can't necessarily disagree with the decision. Bill Smith has not shown to have much talent in signing free-agents or making good trades. In his first year at the helm he signed Mike Lamb, Adam Everett, and Livan Hernandez, and traded for Craig Monroe, Delmon Young, Brendan Harris, and Carlos Gomez, while giving up Johan Santana, Matt Garza, and Jason Bartlett. It is not crazy to think that the Twins would have made the World Series if he hadn't made those moves. The Twins clear strength is in drafting/developing players, especially pitching, and trading for other teams minor-leaguers such as Santana, Liriano, Bartlett, Casilla, etc.

Also it seems that the Twins would like to improve at 3B or SS or their bullpen but teams asking prices have been too high. Would you give up Denard Span and Kevin Slowey plus a good prospect just for Rockies 3B Garrett Atkins? I wouldn't. Would you give up Francisco Liriano and Delmon Young for one year of Mariners 3B Adrian Beltre? I wouldn't. It seems the Twins have been looking for help, but the other teams want a ridiculous amount of talent from the Twins. And remember the Twins have one of the youngest teams in the majors. Think about all the young stars that emerged last season. The future is bright and without further ado I'd like to rank from most valuable to least valuable I think each player will be to the Twins in 2009, the final year of the Metrodome.

Joe Mauer
Francisco Liriano
Justin Morneau
Scott Baker
Joe Nathan
Kevin Slowey
Denard Span
Delmon Young
Jason Kubel
Nick Blackburn
Michael Cuddyer
Glen Perkins
Jose Mijares
Carlos Gomez
Boof Bonser
Brendan Harris
Nick Punto
Brian Buscher
Craig Breslow
Jesse Crain
Mike Redmond
Matt Guerrier
Matt Tolbert
Jason Pridie
Phil Humber

Twins in the World Baseball Classic

With the 2nd World Baseball coming up in a few months it is time to wonder which Twins will participate. Last time I seem to remember both Liriano and Santana pitched for their countries and I don't remember anybody else going, maybe Dennys Reyes and Luis Castillo?

As for this year here are some possibilities:
Justin Morneau - Canada (Already confirmed)
Jesse Crain - Canada

USA:
Joe Mauer
Joe Nathan

Dominican Republic:
Francisco Liriano
Alexi Casilla
Carlos Gomez

Australia:
Luke Hughes (Twins AAA 3B)

Venezuela:
Jose Mijares

I'm probably missing some others but those are ones that come off the top of my head. It will be interesting to see what kind of participation the WBC gets from the MLB players and how the rosters turn out. Japan won last year and anything can happen since most of it just depends on a couple of games but I'm sure once again the four favorites will be the Americans, Dominicans, Cubans, and Japanese with Venezuela and Puerto Rico also making things interesting. Canada and Mexico could be spoilers but unlikely to win it all.

Baseball America's Top Ten Minnesota Twins Prospects

Baseball America released their top 10 Minnesota Twins prospect list today:

1. Aaron Hicks, of
2. Ben Revere, of
3. Wilson Ramos, c
4. Jose Mijares, lhp
5. Danny Valencia, 3b
6. Anthony Swarzak, rhp
7. Shooter Hunt, rhp
8. Kevin Mulvey, rhp
9. Carlos Gutierrez, rhp
10. Angel Morales, of

I can't say I disagree with it much. I'm not as high on Gutierrez as they are. I like that they rated Mijares that high, he will be a huge help to the bullpen next year. My view on the Twins farm system is that it is very deep, much deeper than in years past, but that it isn't very top heavy, in other words they don't have a top prospect like a Mauer, or a Liriano or Garza or a Young or Morneau sitting there. These guys are probably more like a Kubel, a Slowey, a Casilla, a Bartlett, potential to be good, but maybe not all-stars. But then again, I do have high hopes, especially Hicks should be an all-star, maybe Revere, Ramos, or Morales. I don't know. Nobody does. Nobody knew Span would all of a sudden break out. I guess most these guys won't be helping the team within the next 2 years so we will be able to better judge them as time goes on. But it sure is fun, even though every fan overvalues their team prospects.

Here is Baseball America's former top 10 picks for Twins top prospect:

1999	Michael Cuddyer, 3b	Twins
2000	Michael Cuddyer, 3b	Twins
2001	Adam Johnson, rhp	So. Maryland (Atlantic)
2002	Joe Mauer, c	Twins
2003	Joe Mauer, c	Twins
2004	Joe Mauer, c	Twins
2005	Joe Mauer, c	Twins
2006	Francisco Liriano, lhp	Twins
2007	Matt Garza, rhp	Rays
2008	Nick Blackburn, rhp	Twins

Blackburn was a weird choice, but he was solid last year. Ouch, Adam Johnson was a big bust.

And here is what they think our lineup will look like in 2012:

Catcher	Joe Mauer
First Base	Justin Morneau
Second Base	Alexi Casilla
Third Base	Danny Valencia
Shortstop	Trevor Plouffe
Left Field	Ben Revere
Center Field	Aaron Hicks
Right Field	Delmon Young
Designated Hitter	Jason Kubel
No. 1 Starter	Francisco Liriano
No. 2 Starter	Scott Baker
No. 3 Starter	Kevin Slowey
No. 4 Starter	Nick Blackburn
No. 5 Starter	Glen Perkins
Closer	Joe Nathan

I like it. Plouffe is the worst guy on that list. I'd sure like the Twins to trade for a shortstop like Yunel Escobar or JJ Hardy this winter. But the Twins immediate and long-term future looks very bright.

Help on the way?

Now that we have reviewed who some of the Twins' best prospects are, naturally one would wonder who can help the Twins in 2009. In 2008 several players helped tremendously such as Denard Span, Alexi Casilla, Brian Buscher, Nick Blackburn, Kevin Slowey, Glen Perkins, and Jose Mijares among others. Some, such as Casilla, Span, and Buscher weren't high on people's lists at the start of 2008. So I won't be surprised if someone not on this list helps out in a big way. With that being said here are some prospects close to the majors:

1. Jose Mijares. Left Handed Relief Pitcher. He should be the 7th or 8th inning set-up man. He was dominant in September.
2. Anthony Swarzak. Starting Pitcher. Won't start the season with the Twins unless they trade Blackburn or Perkins. Was lights out when he was called up to AAA.
3. Kevin Mulvey. Starting Pitcher. If Swarzak isn't the first guy to be called up, Mulvey would be in contention as well. Was solid, but not spectacular at AAA last year.
4. Brian Duensing. Starting Pitcher. Same story as Mulvey. Pitched in the Olympics. Had a better year in 2007 than 2008.
5. Phil Humber. Starting Pitcher. This guy will be with the Twins or dropped at the start of 2009, because he is out of options. He will likely be the long-relief out of the bullpen if Bonser is traded.

Others who could be called up if there was an emergency:
Danny Valencia 3B
Luke Hughes 2B/3B
Matt Macri IF
Roberty Delaney RP
Anthony Slama RP
Trevor Plouffe SS

It is hard to say who of these guys will be the Span or Casilla of 2009. My guess is that only Mijares will contribute out of this group. The Twins are too deep and young and they plan to fill some holes through trades or free-agency. Really it is too early to tell. Most these guys if they did come up in 2009 it would be after the all-star break, if not until 2010.

First Look at the Twins offseason

Perhaps the biggest lesson the Twins learned from 2008: they can contend, even though they lost Santana and Hunter, and they can contend now. Just two more runs and they would have made the playoffs. Clearly the team isn't needing a big overhaul like last offseason. I'm sure they will make some moves this offseason as usual. We will explore what possible moves they might make, and we will discuss the moves when they make them.

First lets explore where the Twins currently stand:

Catcher - Joe Mauer is the best catcher in the game. He just won his 2nd batting title in 3 years and might win his first gold glove this offseason. The only think he could possibly improve on is HR power. Mike Redmond is a great backup. The Twins will pick up Mike Redmond's option for 2009. They are set at catcher.

First Base - Justin Morneau is solid all around like Joe Mauer. He played all 162 games this season and will likely finish 2nd in the MVP voting. He is locked up on a bargain contract through 2013. He doesn't really need a backup, although I've heard rumors that Jason Kubel is learning 1B so Morneau can DH when he needs a break.

Second Base - Alexi Casilla was a very pleasant surprise for the Twins in 2008. He'll be the #2 hitter in the lineup for a long time.

Shortstop - Now the Twins start to see some problems. Nick Punto is a free agent. I am hoping they don't resign him. Ron Gardenhire love Nick Punto like his own son. Ok he was alright in 2008 but he had one of the worst seasons ever in 2007. The Twins need a new SS. Casilla can play SS or 2B so look for them to fill one of those holes.

Third Base - Brian Buscher was solid in 2008, he hit around .300 and had he played the whole season he would have been on pace for 100 RBI. For some reason the Twins aren't sold on him. They do have 2 or 3 decent options in the minors that we will explore another day, but I wouldn't be surprised if they traded for someone like Adrian Beltre. Another big question mark.

Left Field - Delmon Young disappointed some with his .290, 10 HR campaign in 2008. I have one word for all those who think he should be traded: 22. Yes he is just 22 and very young. This guy was the top prospect in all of baseball 2 years ago when he was called up by the Rays! He was the #1 overall pick like Joe Mauer was! You don't give up on a guy like that. I remember Mauer and Morneau were a little underwhelming their first year in the majors as well. This guy is going to be a beast in the lineup. You don't give up on him early like the Twins did with David Ortiz.

Center Field - Carlos Gomez. See above. Disappointing year, but he is just 22 and has all the talent in the world. Fastest player in baseball, best defensive CF in baseball, you stick with him. He will get better exponentially.

Right Field - Denard Span. Span was the biggest, and most pleasant surprise of 2008. He took over the leadoff spot and was 2nd on the Twins in on-base percentage. He is a centerfielder so he covers right field as well as anybody. You also have Michael Cuddyer who was injured in 2008 but was signed to a big 3 year deal.

Designated Hitter - Jason Kubel. Was second on the team in HR with 20. Has a good bat.

Starting pitchers - Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, and Kevin Slowey are going to form the top of the rotation for a long time. Expect the Twins to lock them up to long term deals. Blackburn and Perkins are solid as well but they can be replaced by the Twins pitching depth.

Relief Pitchers - Getting Pat Neshek back will be huge in 2009. Losing Neshek cost the Twins the playoffs in 2008. Jose Mijares was called up in September and was lights out. Look for Mijares in the 7th, Neshek in the 8th, and Nathan in the 9th. Guerrier and Crain just need some rest. Craig Breslow was a good addition as well. Dennys Reyes will be a free agent, and probably let go with the emergence of Breslow and Mijares. Phil Humber and Boof Bonser also figure into the pitching plan somewhere.



SUMMARY
Positions Set: C, 1B, one of 2B/SS, LF, CF, RF, DH, SP, RP.
Holes to fill: one of 2B/SS, 3B, maybe another reliever.
Surpluss players: One of Span/Young/Gomez/Cuddyer/Kubel. Blackburn, Perkins, Bonser, Humber.
Players likely gone: Nick Punto, Dennys Reyes
Estimated payroll: $49 million
Payroll room: up to $35 million (yes the Twins could actually go sign a big free agent or two, or make a big trade)


The biggest question is what to do with Span/Young/Gomez/Cuddyer/Kubel. 5 excellent players, with only 4 positions (LF/CF/RF/DH) to fill. Who do you make as trade bait? Cuddyer is my choice, but he is likely the least attractive.


In future posts we will discuss what to do with the surpluss of pitching and outfielders, what prospects could help in 2009 like Span, Casilla, Buscher, Blackburn, Slowey, Perkins, and Mijares did in 2008, a new top 20 Twins prospect list, potential trade targets, and potential free agents to be signed.