A look at the Jazz Offseason pt. 2

At locker room cleanout yesterday, everyone made it clear that they wanted to stay with the Jazz next year.  That might just be talk but it does make me wonder if this team will change a huge amount or not.  Sloan said that they are just one good player away from the Finals.  I really like this team and I'd rather see them try to make just a couple improvements instead of blowing up the whole team.  Chemistry is important, and it's hard to just throw a bunch of new guys together and expect them to win.  

What the Jazz really could use is someone just dumping a good player on them without having to give up anything of much value (like Pau Gasol going to the Lakers).  That isn't likely but the Jazz have shown to be adept at trading unwanted pieces for valuable players (see Derek Fisher and Kyle Korver).  

Luckily the Jazz do have some players that could be traded.  Matt Harpring jumps to mind, as he has a $6.5 million expiring contract, and those will be all the rage this season as everyone will want to have money for the crazy 2010 free agent class.  Andrei Kirilenko has a salary that nobody covets, but a few teams would like to have him(Golden State Warriors.)  CJ Miles best years are ahead of him, you'll have him for 3 years at a rate that won't kill you, so some team might want to take a chance on him (Oklahoma City Thunder).  And the Jazz have an interesting little draft pick that could end up being extremely valuable (New York Knicks 2010 1st round draft pick.)

Who might be the missing piece(s) of the Jazz puzzle?  You'll have to wait for the answer.

Five year value of Jazz players

This season has been painful to think about. I know all the current Jazz players won't be on the team for the next five years, but this is how I'd rank the value of their contributions to the Jazz if they were to stay with them for the next five years.

15. Jarron Collins - He is done after this season. Is of no value to any team in the future.
14. Matt Harpring -He has the skill, but not the health. Likely will retire after next season.
13. Morris Almond - He could be higher on this list, but needs to improve on overall game.
12. Ronnie Price - Price would be more valuable if he were a true PG. He is small for a SG, but he sure is athletic.
11. Brevin Knight - Knight is getting old. He is a good backup PG who doesn't turn the ball over but who can't shoot. You know what you are getting from him.
10. Kyrylo Fesenko - This guy has some potential, and a lot of size.
9. Kyle Korver - Is already declining, his value looks to be going way down unless he can start shooting lights-out again.
8. CJ Miles - This guy could be higher if he can consistently tap into all the potential he has. For the forseeable future, he just isn't consistent and he doesn't hustle.
7. Ronnie Brewer - If he can be consistent he will be a star for the Jazz. He has pretty much got a manhandle on the SG position, but that may change with the Jazz 2010 lottery pick that they get from the Knicks.
6. Kosta Koufos - This guy reminds me of Millsap his rookie season, only he plays center and some mean defense. He can score too.
5. Andrei Kirilenko - It will be interesting to see what teams are willing to pay this guy when his max-contract runs out.
4. Memo Okur - The money man has one of the most unique skill sets for a guy his size. Only rivaled by Dirk. He still has some great years left in him.
3. Paul Millsap - You could probably flip Boozer and Millsap in a few seasons if Millsap keeps improving the way he is.
2. Carlos Boozer - Fans may hate him, but the Jazz haven't been the same without him this season. He is the best ambidixterous guy I know, and he is a two-time Olympian/all-star.
1. Deron Williams - Who else were you expecting?

Jerry Sloan = Coach of the Year

This is another year where Jerry Sloan deserves the coach of the year award. What he has done with the lineup and team is remarkable considering the injuries the Jazz have had so far. Williams, Boozer, Kirilenko, Harpring, Okur, Brewer, Millsap, Korver, Knight, Miles, and probably others that I can't remember have all missed games due to injury. Yet the Jazz are 25-18, they are 17-4 at home, 17-7 against Western Conference teams, and are just 4 games back from being in 2nd place. If the Jazz had everyone healthy for the whole season and had this record, then the season would have been a disaster. But Jerry has held down the fort and has used Utah's depth to its advantage. A healthy Boozer coming back in February makes me think that the Jazz will leapfrog all the way to #2 seed in the West, win the division, and join the ranks of the Lakers, Celtics, Cavs, and Magic as the elite teams in the NBA. Most coaches in Jerry's position would have likely given up on the season and let his players do whatever but not Jerry. He refuses to quit and has everyone shaking their heads that the Jazz are still even in the playoff hunt. He should have received several COY awards and this season is the perfect chance for voters to repent.

Grading the Jazz at midseason

Deron Williams >> B+. It is difficult to be too hard on Williams performance so far. Only recently has he appeared to be at full strength. The last four games he has averaged 26 points and 12 assists. He is the heart and soul of the Jazz and he will have a monster 2nd half.

Carlos Boozer >> Incomplete. Boozer put up good numbers but has only played 12 games so far this season. Unless he is a beast when he comes back, I don't think he will opt out of his contract after all.

Memo Okur >> B. He is scoring 3 more points a game and getting an extra rebound a game more from last season. He has really been good in the first half over the past few games.

Paul Millsap >> A. Millsap has been the MVP of the Jazz thus far. He has almost doubled his numbers from last year while only playing 10 more minutes a game. He will definitely be the top priority for the Jazz in the offseason. The Jazz want and need him to stay.

Andrei Kirilenko >> B+. He cooled off after a hot start to the season. I'd like to see him cut down on his 3-pointer attempts. He is only 11-46 from beyond the arc this season. Hornacek, what have you done to him??

Ronnie Brewer >> B-. His numbers are very similar to last seasons except his FG% is down from 56% to 48% this season. His biggest problem is his consistency.

CJ Miles >> B-. He can score, but not much else. He really needs more consistency, and needs to work on his overall game if he wants to keep his starting spot.

Kyle Korver >> C+. He has been struggling a bit this season due to his wrist injury. Hopefully he will be able to shoot a little better the rest of the season because for a 3 point specialist he hasn't been amazing (38%).

Brevin Knight >> B. He has been a solid backup for Deron. His minutes keep getting reduced as Williams gets to full strength so he will likely only play 10-15 minutes a game from here on out.

Matt Harpring >> C-. He has been recovering from a bad ankle infection. The Jazz have really missed his old production from the bench, but hopefully he will improve for the second half of the season.

Ronnie Price >> B. Nobody has been jerked around as much as Ronnie has this season. He has started a lot and not played in most the games he has appeared in. But he has admirably dealt with his uncertain role.

Morris Almond >> D. He hasn't done much this season, appearing in only 21 games, mainly in garbage time. He quickly lost his 2nd quarter minutes he was getting due to being unproductive. If his shot is not falling he is worthless on the floor. Maybe the Jazz were right in not picking up his option for next season.

Kosta Koufos >> A-. This guy has been better than anybody thought he would be this season. He's played 13 minutes a game and played in 35 games already. That is a rarity for a rookie in Jerry Sloan's system. The last rookie who got that much playing time and praise from Sloan as a rookie? Jerry Sloan. He could be the defensive center we have needed.

Jarron Collins >> D. He has only played in 7 games the whole season while recovering from a golf cart injury.

Kyrylo Fesenko >> C+. Hasn't earned much playing time but he did have a couple of very impressive games that showed flashes of his potential, especially his game fs Yao Ming and the Rockets.

Turkish Delight

Last night belonged to Memo. 43 points baby. It really looked like he was going to score 50 but he only scored two points in the 4th quarter. 43 points is a career high for Okur and the most for a Jazz player since Karl Malone had 44 in 1998. When Memo is on, he is our most deadly offensive force. There are not a lot of players his size with his skill set. Dirk comes to mind but not a whole lot of others. Anyways Memo has carried us the past few games, especially early on. And viola! the Jazz have a nice little win streak going.

Ronnie Price has played nicely the past few games. When CJ comes back I would be surprised to see him get much playing time. I think Price has stolen CJ's starting job for a while. The difference in the first quarter for the Jazz the past couple of games has been undeniable. Before, the Jazz were always down 10-15 points after the first quarter, and I think CJ and his lack of effort was a big part of it. Now that Price has been putting in his energy in the first quarter the difference has been undeniable. Here is my starting 5 hustle team for the Jazz: Kosta Koufos, Paul Millsap, Andrei Kirilenko, Ronnie Price, Deron Williams.

Jazz play the blues

Nobody could have predicted what has happened to the Jazz this season. Nobody thought they would have this bad of a record and be in 3rd place in their division at the end of November.

But looking past all the negatives I think there are quite a few silver linings so far despite all the depressing injuries that have occurred thus far.

1. Younger players develop - Out of everyone, I would say CJ Miles has developed the most out of the young players. He is starting to make the Jazz look good for signing him to a four year deal.

2. We are only 1 game out of 2nd place. I don't know if we can catch the Lakers but once everyone is healthy and if we can stay even with the others, then we should be able to lock up the 2nd seed, thus giving us home-court advantage until the Conference Finals, and we wouldn't face the Lakers until then.

3. Andrei Kirilenko's resurgence.

4. The bench/younger players are getting valuable experience, especially in crunch time. Even though Williams/Boozer/Kirilenko played in the Olympics, their time being out should get them some much needed rest. Come playoff time, I imagine Okur/Boozer/Kirilenko/Williams/Korver/Harpring/Knight will not be quite as worn down as the opposition. Really if you are going to be injured, I'd much rather be injured at the beginning of the season than the end and not be 100% for the playoffs.



To conclude, in April when we are looking back at this unprecedented injury problem we have had we might just look at it as a blessing in disguise. The only thing that is negative about it is that we likely can't get the top seed in the west. Other than that, nothing too devastating has happened, that is if we don't fall behind the rest of the competition.

Season at a Glance

AK-- Has been the MVP of the Jazz this season. It would be a shame if he didn't make the all-star team and win 6th man of the year award if he keeps this up. Moving AK to 6th man duties was pure genius. I wish Williams knew how to play with Kirilenko better. But anytime Williams is not on the floor, Kirilenko better be there. His shooting is improved as well. This is the old AK that we grew to love so much and I love watching him again. When he is on like this, he is one of the most exciting players to watch and perhaps one of the top 5 overall, best well-rounded players in the league.

Boozer-- The guy has been great on offense and rebounding. He still can be abused on defense but he is trying more this year. He would have even better numbers if D-Will was playing. He feeds off Williams more than anybody. Hopefully Boozer won't miss time from his injury last night.

Brewer-- Still inconsistent although he is improving. Has some amazing hands, he can rack up the steals fast! His outside shot is much better and can hit the 3 now. His defense and now his more improved offense game is taking playing time away from Korver.

Millsap-- Defense, rebounds, and scoring is great. I really don't see how they could afford to not resign him this offseason.

Brevin-- The Jazz have to be thankful that he is on the team. He is a great defender and a much better point guard than Price.

CJ Miles-- At the beginning of the season it looked like he wasn't going to start for much longer. But the last few games he has exploded, leading the Jazz in scoring 2 games in a row. He will take away Korver's and Harpring's minutes. I am glad we resigned him, and it will be fun to see his improvement in the next 4 years.

Price-- He would be better if his FG% was better. He was great last night, playing the whole 2nd half.

Korver-- One of the most disappointing players this season. His wrist is hurt and isn't shooting as well. His defense leaves much to be desired and he is losing playing time fast to Brewer and Miles.

K2 (Kousta Koufos)-- This guy looks like he was a steal. He plays the best inside defense on the whole team already. He has a good shot as well. Look for him to get a few minutes a night and he should be one of the top 3 Jazz centers of all-time when it is all said and done.

D-Will-- He came back too early, but I can't blame him. The one problem with Deron is that he can't co-exist with Kirilenko on the floor. With Williams gone, it is clear that Kirilenko is easily the Jazz 2nd best player and best player when Deron is out.

Memo-- He hasn't played much due to a bad back and his dad's illness. We need him to be back to full strength soon.

Collins-- Hasn't played much, I don't know why he is on the team.

Harpring-- I really don't think he will get much playing time this season. He is too banged up. When he is healthy he is an excellent player but CJ and Brewer are starting to play really good and his minutes are being eaten up.

Almond-- I am confused. Sloan all of a sudden likes the guy and praises him and starts giving him a few minutes a night. Why did they decide to not exercise their option for him on next season?

Fess-- Likely headed to the D-League.

Jazz vs Suns notes

-The Jazz remain unbeaten at home despite not having Memo Okur and Deron Williams.
-The Jazz are 31-1 at home in 2008. That is just unbelievable. Does anybody question that the Jazz #1 priority is to obtain the #1 seed and home-court advantage throughout the playoffs?
-CJ Miles was a beast, scoring 15 in the 1st and 21 overall.
-Millsap and AK combined to block Shaq on three straight plays.
-The Jazz played hard and with a lot of energy tonight.
-Jarron Collins got his first start of the year.
-AK, Korver, Millsap, and Knight were huge off the bench.
-Koufos only played 5 minutes but had some nice defensive moves.
-Jazz were +19 with Knight on the floor.
-Will Okur and Williams finally be on the floor on Wednesday? Okur has a strained back and Williams still hasn't recovered from a preseason ankle sprain.
-It was a good knight for the Jazz and they picked up a much needed victory.

No More Mo

Morris Almond said today that the Jazz won't pick up his option for next season. It would have paid him $1.16 million. Not only that, but the Jazz are currently trying to trade Almond. The leading candidates are the Spurs and the Pistons. I have no idea what the Jazz would get in return. That would be awesome if they could somehow trade him for a big PF/C defender, but that isn't likely.

If I'm not mistaken he is older than Brewer and Miles, despite being drafted more recently than them. But he would have been a nice backup option if the Jazz don't resign Korver next year. When the Jazz resigned Miles that likely sealed Almond's fate. He is a big time scorer but can't do much else at this point. The Jazz just have too much young talent at SG. I'm sad that Almond didn't get much more of a chance in Utah and I think he could be a great NBA player. But at the same time, I don't see how he would get much playing time here. I'm guessing that the Jazz plan on trying to retain Korver next season.

Thoughts on Opening Night

The Jazz managed to get by the Nuggets in their season opener despite playing without Deron Williams.

The "Lights Out" beginning was fantastic. I had chills the whole time. I might have to go to a couple more Jazz games this year because of the new intros and sound system. Deseret News was kind enough to have a video of it: http://deseretnews.com/video/1,5563,600,00.html

Boozer was huge and that is what you have to do when Deron is out.

Price was good enough despite his shooting. I thought it was fitting that the last 2 free throws came down to him.

C.J.'s dunk in the first quarter was amazing.

AK was amazing off the bench.

Boozer and Okur had double doubles.

Not the prettiest win but a win is a win and the Jazz were able to do it without Williams.

Ranking the Jazz Players 1-15 and a couple random notes

1. Deron Williams
2. Carlos Boozer
3. Andrei Kirilenko
4. Memo Okur
5. Kyle Korver
6. Ronnie Brewer
7. Paul Millsap
8. Matt Harpring
9. Ronnie Price
10. Brevin Knight
11. CJ Miles
12. Kosta Koufus
13. Morris Almond
14. Jarron Collins
15. Kyrylo Fesenko

Yet to come:
16. Ante Tomic
17. Tadija Dragicevic

Note on depth/Bench: The depth of this team is ridiculous. I'm trying to be totally fair to all NBA teams when I say I can't think of another team with that kind of depth. Look at the bench players: Andrei Kirilenko, Kyle Korver, Paul Millsap, Matt Harpring, and even Ronnie Price and Brevin Knight. That 2nd team definitely wouldn't be the worst starting 5 in the league. If the starters can keep the games close, then the 2nd unit of the Jazz will crush opponents leading to several Jazz blowout victories.

Note on CJ: CJ Miles is arguably the worst player on the Jazz, yet he will start at SF. My guess is that the Jazz are trying to get Miles to have the same kind of season that Brewer had last year. Brewer was a seldom used, young player with loads of talent, who never did much when he played. But when he was stuck with Williams, Boozer, and Okur he exploded and became a marvelous player. Hopefully Miles will improve likewise by getting the bulk of his playing time with Williams, Boozer, and Okur. He should get lots of open looks if teams double-team the Jazz. Hey, if it worked for Brewer, then why not for Miles, who is just as (if not more) young and athletic.


Injury Note: Jazz announced that Williams will not play in the season opener tomorrow night.

Jazz Predictions

Yes the regular season is still a couple of weeks away, but the preseason is upon us and before you know it the Jazz will be playing their first real game. Time for some predictions!

Record: 62-20.
What!? you may say. Many predict the Jazz won't do so well, especially after a quiet offseason. But they already made the move they needed to make last season: trade for Kyle Korver. Remember the Jazz had the best record in 2008 and project Korver's Jazz over a full season and you arrive at 62-20. Plus the team won't have another dreadful December like last year.

Leading Scorer: Carlos Boozer 24 ppg
Assists leader: Deron Williams 11.3 apg
Rebounds leader: Carlos Boozer 11 rpg
Blocks leader: Andrei Kirilenko 1.2 bpg
Steals leader: Ronnie Brewer 1.3 spg
3 Point accuracy: Kyle Korver 44%
Free throw accuracy: Kyle Korver 91%

Projected starting lineup:
PG Deron Williams
SG Ronnie Brewer
SF CJ Miles
PF Carlos Boozer
C Mehmet Okur

Bench:
F Andrei Kirilenko
F Paul Millsap
SG Kyle Korver
PG Ronnie Price
F Matt Harpring
C Jarron Collins
PG Brevin Knight

C Kyrylo Fesenko
C Kousta Koufos
SG Morris Almond


Top 6 scorers:
Boozer, Williams, Okur, Korver, Kirilenko, Brewer

Really the only thing the Jazz lack is a dominant defender in the post. They have everything else.

Prediction: Utah Jazz 2008-2009 World Champions (if they play defense this year)

The sky is the limit with one of the best young players in the league in Deron Williams at the helm. They have 7 players who can drop 20 points: Boozer, Williams, Korver, Okur, Brewer, Harpring, Millsap. I believe they are the best offensive team in the NBA, the big question this year and what will determine how far they go is how much defense they are willing to play.

This is the deepest Jazz team ever. I don't know how they are going to find minutes for everyone. Harpring being hurt will help give more people minutes at SF/SG. This might be the deepest team in the NBA.

Jeff Hornacek said that this team is much deeper and dangerous and versatile than the 1997 and 1998 Utah Jazz.

There are good vibes coming from the players right now. Ronnie Price is saying he's never seen a team so focused on the same goal. Kirilenko is excited about leading the 2nd team as the 6th man. Williams continues to develop at an astounding pace. All the players are in top shape even Okur. They don't have a negative deterrent at the start of the season unlike last year when Kirilenko wanted to leave. The sky is the limit this year.

The bigger the better the Jazz!

08/09 - Best ever for Utah?

Utah takes on Oregon State (who just beat #1 USC) tonight and BYU takes on Utah State tomorrow night. I predict a third straight BYU shutout victory. All signs point to an undefeated BYU team going up against an undefeated Utah team in late November, with both of them ranked in the top 10 (perhaps BYU as the #1 team in the nation?) and both vying for a BCS bowl game. Talk about the best rivalry game ever. If BYU won that game as well, it might just end up in the BCS title game. I've looked at the 6 teams ahead of BYU in the polls and I wouldn't be surprised if all of them lost at least one game between now and the end of the season. The problem is how many 1 loss teams would be ahead of BYU in the rankings? Either way BYU is poised for it's biggest season since 1984, if not ever.

Meanwhile of the professional side of sports in Utah, the Jazz are looking mighty fine in Boise according to head coach Jerry Sloan. Sloan usually rips into most the team for not being into shape but this time he has praised most of the players fitness, such as Ronnie Brewer, Kyle Korver, CJ Miles, Memo Okur, and Morris Almond. This year's team will be EXTREMELY good. Expectations haven't been so high since Stockton and Malone ruled the west in '97 and '98. John Hollinger, ESPN statitician, predicts the Jazz will be the best in the west this year and go to the NBA Finals. Yeah that is right, the Jazz over the Lakers. Go check it out if you haven't already: http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/trainingcamp08/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=JazzForecast0809 I am thinking the same thing, but then again when don't I predict the Jazz will win it all?

But seriously this year could be the year. Boozer and Okur will be super motivated because it is their contract year essentially, with both of them likely to opt out of the rest of their contracts. D-Will has been improving at an exponential rate, and it is scary to think what he'll be like this year. Sloan says he will play Kirilenko more at the power forward spot this year, where he is much more effective. All 4 of the shooting guards are in tip-top shape, and all want to contribute as much as possible. Remember how good the Jazz were after they acquired Korver? They posted the best record in the league after that. And now they will have him right from the get go at the beginning of the season. Having a 3 point shooter who opens up the middle and who will make all the free-throws at the end of the game is an amazing benefit.

So, a BYU/Utah football game with the winner going to a BCS game, if not the national championship, and another Jazz finals appearance, if not their first championship? It doesn't get better than that folks, and that would easily top the 97 and 98 years where the Jazz went to the finals and the Utes ended up in the NCAA title game as the best sports year in the state of Utah.

Morris Almond and Kyrylo Fesenko

What are the Jazz going to do with these two great rookies they have playing in Orem in the D-League? Morris Almond is leading the league in scoring, and he tied the league record with 51 points in one game a few months back, and then a few weeks later he broke his own record with 53 points. He is a great scorer, a great shooting guard. I don’t know how his defense is honestly because I haven’t been able to see him that much. I really need to go to some Utah Flash games, especially since they are so close. Almond was a great draft choice, but just what are the Jazz going to do with him? He is log jammed behind Ronnie Brewer, Kyle Korver, and even C. J. Miles. All three of those guys are quality shooting guards. Lets be realistic. The Jazz can’t keep all four of these guys. I’d say out of the four, Korver is staying because he is a fan favorite and he’s the best three point shooter and free throw shooter on the team. Even Jeff Hornacek things that Korver is a better shooter than he ever was as the Salt Lake Tribune reports:

Kyle Korver knocked down 31 of 34 three-pointers in one of the shooting drills Hornacek had put himself through for years as a player.

"He can shoot better than I can,'' said Hornacek, a 40.3 percent career three-point shooter whose No. 14 was retired by the Jazz in November 2002. "He can light it up." Watching Korver go through the drill, Hornacek said, "I was like, 'Holy crap.' "

But Almond seems to be more like Korver than Brewer and Miles, which lessens his value to the team. Brewer is having a breakout season and provides great defense and a great slashing and inside game. Miles is a good shooter and plays a good all-round game as well. He is also very young. In fact I think both Brewer and Miles are younger than Almond. But my guess is Miles will be the first to go. Korver is locked up until the end of 2011. Miles can sign with any team this year. It will be interesting to see how this all turns out, but Morris Almond can’t be ignored by the Jazz for much longer than after this season.

Now Fesenko should step in and take over Collins role after his contract is up next season. Fesenko will be a beast and the inside presence the Jazz have been looking for since Mark Eaton. He is still raw but that is what the D-League is for. With Okur, Fesenko, Boozer, Millsap, and Kirilenko the Jazz will have one of the very best front lines in the whole NBA. Hen isn’t as for sure as Almond is but Fesenko has tons of potential. I’m excited to watch the future of these two “young rookies” as Hot Rod would say.

Boy, the Jazz done well with their draft the past few years. Williams in 2005, Millsap and Brewer in 2006 and Almond and Fesenko in 2007. It is good to see this after a few interesting draft years with such winners like Kris Humphries, Kirk Snyder, Curtis Borchardt, Raul Lopez, etc.