Morneau 2nd, Mauer 4th in AL MVP

I am disappointed but not shocked. Today Dustin Pedroia of the Boston Red Sox won the AL MVP. Morneau finished 2nd and Mauer finished 4th. Had Morneau not batted .146 over the last 16 games, he likely would have won it. Or had the Twins made the playoffs he likely would have won it. Really just a few things change and Morneau wins it. However, Joe Mauer would be my pick for the MVP. Sadly I doubt he will ever win it because of his low home run totals. I would go into deep statistical analysis to prove my pick but I dont have time. But here is one stat to chew on: Mauer led the league in Win Probability Added… which means he was the most clutch hitter in the league when the game counted. Rob Neyer agrees with my pick for the MVP: http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=3710934&name=Neyer_Rob

Morneau had 257 points and Mauer received 188. Pedroia won with 317. Morneau had 7 first place votes, while Mauer received 2. Honestly I think the awards are overrated and the people who vote for them don't put much thought into it, or who only vote based on their opinion and don't back it up with important stats and information. I mean, how did one voter leave Pedroia off the vote completely?? How did Jason Bartlett get a 5th place vote??? How did Francisco Rodriguez, who wasn't even the best AL closer, get a first place vote?? How did Torii Hunter win another gold glove award? And worst of all, how did some voters vote for Edison Volquez for NL Rookie if the Year when he wasn't even a rookie!?!?

Postseason awards are starting to become something that don't really matter, they are becoming a joke.

First Look at the Twins offseason

Perhaps the biggest lesson the Twins learned from 2008: they can contend, even though they lost Santana and Hunter, and they can contend now. Just two more runs and they would have made the playoffs. Clearly the team isn't needing a big overhaul like last offseason. I'm sure they will make some moves this offseason as usual. We will explore what possible moves they might make, and we will discuss the moves when they make them.

First lets explore where the Twins currently stand:

Catcher - Joe Mauer is the best catcher in the game. He just won his 2nd batting title in 3 years and might win his first gold glove this offseason. The only think he could possibly improve on is HR power. Mike Redmond is a great backup. The Twins will pick up Mike Redmond's option for 2009. They are set at catcher.

First Base - Justin Morneau is solid all around like Joe Mauer. He played all 162 games this season and will likely finish 2nd in the MVP voting. He is locked up on a bargain contract through 2013. He doesn't really need a backup, although I've heard rumors that Jason Kubel is learning 1B so Morneau can DH when he needs a break.

Second Base - Alexi Casilla was a very pleasant surprise for the Twins in 2008. He'll be the #2 hitter in the lineup for a long time.

Shortstop - Now the Twins start to see some problems. Nick Punto is a free agent. I am hoping they don't resign him. Ron Gardenhire love Nick Punto like his own son. Ok he was alright in 2008 but he had one of the worst seasons ever in 2007. The Twins need a new SS. Casilla can play SS or 2B so look for them to fill one of those holes.

Third Base - Brian Buscher was solid in 2008, he hit around .300 and had he played the whole season he would have been on pace for 100 RBI. For some reason the Twins aren't sold on him. They do have 2 or 3 decent options in the minors that we will explore another day, but I wouldn't be surprised if they traded for someone like Adrian Beltre. Another big question mark.

Left Field - Delmon Young disappointed some with his .290, 10 HR campaign in 2008. I have one word for all those who think he should be traded: 22. Yes he is just 22 and very young. This guy was the top prospect in all of baseball 2 years ago when he was called up by the Rays! He was the #1 overall pick like Joe Mauer was! You don't give up on a guy like that. I remember Mauer and Morneau were a little underwhelming their first year in the majors as well. This guy is going to be a beast in the lineup. You don't give up on him early like the Twins did with David Ortiz.

Center Field - Carlos Gomez. See above. Disappointing year, but he is just 22 and has all the talent in the world. Fastest player in baseball, best defensive CF in baseball, you stick with him. He will get better exponentially.

Right Field - Denard Span. Span was the biggest, and most pleasant surprise of 2008. He took over the leadoff spot and was 2nd on the Twins in on-base percentage. He is a centerfielder so he covers right field as well as anybody. You also have Michael Cuddyer who was injured in 2008 but was signed to a big 3 year deal.

Designated Hitter - Jason Kubel. Was second on the team in HR with 20. Has a good bat.

Starting pitchers - Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, and Kevin Slowey are going to form the top of the rotation for a long time. Expect the Twins to lock them up to long term deals. Blackburn and Perkins are solid as well but they can be replaced by the Twins pitching depth.

Relief Pitchers - Getting Pat Neshek back will be huge in 2009. Losing Neshek cost the Twins the playoffs in 2008. Jose Mijares was called up in September and was lights out. Look for Mijares in the 7th, Neshek in the 8th, and Nathan in the 9th. Guerrier and Crain just need some rest. Craig Breslow was a good addition as well. Dennys Reyes will be a free agent, and probably let go with the emergence of Breslow and Mijares. Phil Humber and Boof Bonser also figure into the pitching plan somewhere.



SUMMARY
Positions Set: C, 1B, one of 2B/SS, LF, CF, RF, DH, SP, RP.
Holes to fill: one of 2B/SS, 3B, maybe another reliever.
Surpluss players: One of Span/Young/Gomez/Cuddyer/Kubel. Blackburn, Perkins, Bonser, Humber.
Players likely gone: Nick Punto, Dennys Reyes
Estimated payroll: $49 million
Payroll room: up to $35 million (yes the Twins could actually go sign a big free agent or two, or make a big trade)


The biggest question is what to do with Span/Young/Gomez/Cuddyer/Kubel. 5 excellent players, with only 4 positions (LF/CF/RF/DH) to fill. Who do you make as trade bait? Cuddyer is my choice, but he is likely the least attractive.


In future posts we will discuss what to do with the surpluss of pitching and outfielders, what prospects could help in 2009 like Span, Casilla, Buscher, Blackburn, Slowey, Perkins, and Mijares did in 2008, a new top 20 Twins prospect list, potential trade targets, and potential free agents to be signed.

Trade Deadline

The trade deadline is fast approaching. The Twins are hoping to sneak into 1st place and the playoffs in a year that nobody (but myself) thought they would contend. Now normally the Twins don't do anything big at the trade deadline but maybe they should this year. Usually we just lose players in the offseason, so why not get something back in a trade instead? Players have come and gone over the years and the 2002 squad that first made the playoffs are all gone. Those players have signed with other teams, such as David Ortiz, Johan Santana, Casey Blake, Jason Varitek, Torii Hunter, and even Kyle Lohse. I wouldn't mind having those players back on the Twins, minus Varitek perhaps. Luckily for the Twins they have one of the best farm systems over the years producing players such as Mauer, Morneau, Kubel, Slowey, Blackburn, Garza, Span, Cuddyer, etc. As of today there are currently no Mauers or Morneaus in the minors to help the Twins, with exception of Liriano. All their top prospects are in the lower levels of the minors, players such as Ben Revere, hitting .399 this year, but in lower-A ball. Here are some moves the Twins could and should do:

Trade Cuddyer, Buscher, and Bonser to Mariners for Adrian Beltre.
Trade PTBNL for LaTroy Hawkins, who was demoted by Yankees.
Call up Francisco Liriano, cut Brian Bass.
Trade Livan Hernandez for a bucket of baseballs.
Tell Nick Punto that he won't be resigned.
Cut Adam Everett
Trade Mike Lamb to any takers, call up Matt Macri and Bobby Korecky.

The Twins end up like this:

RF Denard Span
2B Alexi Casilla
C Joe Mauer
1B Justin Morneau
3B Adrian Beltre
DH Jason Kubel
LF Delmon Young
SS Brendan Harris
CF Carlos Gomez

Bench
C Mike Redmond
IF Nick Punto
3B Matt Macri
OF Craig Monroe

SP Francisco Liriano
SP Scott Baker
SP Nick Blackburn
SP Kevin Slowey
SP Glen Perkins

CL Joe Nathan
RP Matt Guerrier
RP LaTroy Hawkins
RP Jesse Crain
RP Craig Breslow
RP Dennys Reyes
RP Bobby Korecky


That is a solid team! The Twins are lucky to have 5 great young starting pitchers. The Beltre likely won't happen though.

Barry Bonds to the Minnesota Twins

Everyone this season was saying how the Twins finally fixed their hitting but their pitching wasn't going to be good enough with the losses of Santana, Silva, and Garza. Well so far (it is still early) the Twins have the worst offense in the AL. Ok Detroit is the only team that has scored fewer runs, they only have 15, while the Twins have 23. But Detroit should have the best offense in the AL. And as for catching other teams offensively it doesn't look good. The next two teams up the ladder are Boston and the Yankees, the two other offensive powerhouses in the AL. The Twins only have 3 HR the whole year, 2 by Morneau. Torii Hunter alone has out-homered the Twins 4-3. I just don't know if the Twins hitters will be able to do much this year. I thought they looked alright on paper, at least comapred to last year. But if Delmon Young and Joe Mauer still aren't developing 20 HR power, only Morneau is a guarantee to hit over 20 HR. I guess Kubel, Lamb, Cuddyer, and Monroe, even Gomez in the future could reach that. But it just might not be this year. We're only 7 games into the season so it is a bit to early to start panicking, but it sure would have been nice to start the season out on top of the ladder rather than on bottom.

The only solution I see is to sign Barry Bonds. Bonds would solve so many of the Twins problems. He could still be one of the best if not the best hitter in the game. He would boost two Twins totals that are terrible, namely home runs and on-base percentage. Don't tell me the Twins don't have the money, they just lost Silva and Santana and Hunter who ate up most the payroll. Barry could also help out the young hitters with their stroke, like Young and Gomez. Make it happen Bill Smith!

Roster Moves

The following players were optioned to Rochester today:
RHP Phil Humber
OF Denard Span
OF Jason Pridie
IF Brian Buscher

All four of these guys had a decent chance at making the team. With both Span and Pridie being sent down this means that Carlos Gomez won the center field position. Gomez definitely is the most talented out of the three. Pridie, Span, and Gomez all had great springs. I wouldn’t have minded seeing Span being the CF for the first two months to delay free agency for Gomez for another year. Denard Span really has to be depressed today. Ever since he was drafted he had been heralded as the guy to replace Torii Hunter and now it appears that he will never get a shot at it.

Basically it boiled down to that Gomez could make a difference on the team right now. He’s really picked up his play over the past couple of weeks. In 15 games he has 10 steals, 1 HR, 4 doubles, 2 triples, and 12 runs while batting .286. Over a full season that projects to 108 steals, 11 HR, 65 doubles, 32 triples, and 194 runs. That is pretty darn good, although not a good projection from such a small sample size. It has been a long time since anybody has stolen more than 100 bases in one season. This dude is going to be a fantastic player. He will turn lots of singles into doubles, and he scores almost every time he gets on base due to his speed. Carlos Gomez is the most exciting everyday Twins player in a long time.

So the 13 position players are set. Here they are:
C - Joe Mauer
Backup C - Mike Redmond
1B - Justin Morneau
2B - Brendan Harris
SS - Adam Everett
3B - Mike Lamb
Backup IF - Nick Punto
Backup IF - Matt Tolbert
LF - Delmon Young
CF - Carlos Gomez
RF - Michael Cuddyer
Backup OF - Craig Monroe
DH - Jason Kubel

Indications are that Francisco Liriano might start off in the minors to get him up to full speed. Here are the 12 pitchers to start the season:

SP Livan Hernandez
SP Scott Baker
SP Boof Bonser
SP Kevin Slowey
SP Nick Blackburn

CL Joe Nathan
RP Pat Neshek
RP Matt Guerrier
RP Dennys Reyes
RP Jesse Crain
RP Juan Rincon
RP Brian Bass

Now Liriano might make the team, that decision hasn’t been made. If he does the Blackburn will be sent down.

Opening Day is next week when the Twins host Torii Hunter and the Los Angeles Angels.

Looking at the Johan Santana Trade: Carlos Gomez

Carlos Gomez
Center Field
Born: 12/85
Bats: Right

YEAR LV PA AVG OBP SLG HR XBH BB SO
2005 A- 539 .275 .331 .376 8 27 32 88
2006 AA 486 .281 .350 .423 7 39 27 97
2007 AAA 157 .286 .363 .414 2 12 15 23
MLB 139 .232 .288 .304 2 5 8 27

Carlos Gomez was signed out of the Dominican Republic as a 16-year-old in 2002. Last year he was the NL’s youngest player. He struggled, hitting just .232 with an on-base percentage of .288 and a slugging percentage of .304 in 58 games, and missed about two months with a broken left hand. Those numbers shouldn’t be too concerning as he was just 21.

In 156 games between Double-A and Triple-A, Gomez hit .282 with a .354 on-base percentage and a slugging percentage of .421 with nine homers, 51 total extra-base hits, 58 steals, and a 120-to-42 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Those are great numbers for someone his age playing at such a high level. His biggest weakness is that he lacks plate discipline. Gomez has more power potential than most speedy players. If Gomez can hit for power and average he will be a tremendous player because he is the fastest player in baseball.

Gomez also is an excellent defensive center fielder. He has great range and a tremendous arm. The Twins will have the best outfield arms in the majors with him, Delmon Young, and Michael Cuddyer. Gomez could quickly make fans forget about Torii Hunter but he likely won’t be amazing this year, and could use a few more months in AAA.

The Confident Carlos Gomez

The Minnesota Twins are left without a center fielder after Torii Hunter left via free agency. There are 3 possible replacements: Denard Span, and two players the Twins brought in from trades: the Dominican Carlos Gomez and Jason Pridie. The three are competing during spring training to see who will be the Twins starting center fielder. You wouldn’t think that there is a competition after talking to Carlos Gomez.

A reporter asked Gomez how he thought he could play in the Metrodome:

“If Torii Hunter can catch the ball there, why can’t I catch it there?”

But wait, there’s more.

“They don’t have no speed like me. I know I can help this team. Especially when I hit ahead of Morneau and the catcher and the other guy.”

He’s referring to some catcher named Joe Mauer and another guy named Michael Cuddyer.

“They will all have more RBIs,”

Gomez gets his speed from his dad:

“My dad was fast,” Gomez said. “When I was a kid and I worked out with my older friends, they all worked out so hard for their running. I do nothing. They say, ‘Why are you so fast when you don’t do nothing?’ I tell them that my dad was fast.”

On Friday Gomez had two hits, including a triple, two runs, and a stolen base.

After the game, Twins beat reporter told him it seemed like he was in the pitchers’ heads.

“That’s good,” he said in that cool voice. “When the pitcher thinks only about the leadoff hitter, he doesn’t think about the other guys. Like Morneau — probably this year, he has a better year. Because [the pitcher] thinks more Gomez, Gomez — first base. He has to be quicker [to home plate], and he throws more fastballs to the catcher.

“You know, he’s scared to throw breaking balls, and I steal second easy.

“And now I’m at second. Whatever base hit, I score.

“They’re scared when I am on the base. They have to think too much, throw a lot of [pitch outs] to throw me out.

“Mauer probably hits second in the lineup. He’s got good patience, and he kill this league this year.”

Return of Liriano

Today, Francisco Liriano pitched in his first game since 2006. He pitched 1.2 innings, gave up 2 hits and one walk and struck out Manny Ramirez. He was only throwing 90 MHP. He was limited to a pitch count of 40, hence being taken out after only 1.2 innings. It was a very successful debut. The goal was to get Liriano in a game situation, face MLB hitters, and most importantly, stay healthy. He did all of the above while not giving up any runs. You will be hearing a lot about Francisco Liriano on this blog. He is my favorite player, due to many reasons. He was the best pitcher in baseball when he was healthy in 2006, even better than Johan Santana. And he is from San Cristobal, Dominican Republic, a city I lived in for almost five months in 2006. He is a big hero in the DR. When I was there every game he pitched in was on national TV. He now has a couple of fellow Dominicans on the team with speedsters Carlos Gomez and Alexi Casilla.

If Liriano can return to form, he will more make up for the loss of Santana. Here’s why: Liriano is very similar to Santana. Santana has the games best changeup, but the Twins pitching coach said that Liriano’s is very similar to Santana’s. But the thing that makes Liriano better is his slider, which everyone says is the best slider they’ve ever seen. A Twin and an ex-Twin agree. Joe Mauer says Liriano has the best stuff he’s ever caught, and Hunter says if he had to chose between Liriano and Santana (assuming they were the same age) he would take Liriano because he has all the nasty pitches Santana has, but he also has the best slider in baseball.

Will the Twins be better this year??

To answer this question we will look at how I expect the 2008 player’s improvement or lack thereof vs the 2007 player. The measurement is just level of improvement at that position with 1 being 2008 has a decent improvement over 2007, 3 being really big improvement, and 4 being enormous. Obviously -4 would be an enormous downgrade from 2007 to 2008. Enjoy.

Lineup
2007 C Joe Mauer vs 2008 C Joe Mauer. +2
2007 1B Justin Morneau vs 2008 Justin Morneau +2
2007 2B Luis Castillo vs 2008 Brendan Harris +1
2007 SS Jason Bartlett vs 2008 SS Adam Everett 0
2007 3B Nick Punto vs 2008 3B Mike Lamb +4
2007 LF Jason Tyner vs 2008 LF Delmon Young +4
2007 CF Torii Hunter vs 2008 CF Carlos Gomez? -4
2007 RF Michael Cuddyer vs 2008 Michael Cuddyer 0
2007 DH Rondell White vs 2008 DH Jason Kubel +3

Total lineup improvement +12
Bench
2007 C Mike Redmond vs 2008 C Mike Redmond 0
2007 INF Nick Punto vs 2008 INF Nick Punto +1 (could he get any worse?!)
2007 INF Luis Rodriguez vs 2008 INF Brian Buscher +1
2007 OF Lew Ford vs 2008 OF Craig Monroe +1
2007 INF Garrett Jones vs 2008 INF Garrett Jones 0
Total bench improvement +3
Total offensive improvement +15

Starting Pitching
2007 SP Johan Santana vs 2008 SP Francisco Liriano 0
2007 SP Matt Garza vs 2008 SP Kevin Slowey -1
2007 SP Carlos Silva vs 2008 SP Livan Hernandez -2
2007 SP Scott Baker vs 208 SP Scott Baker +1
2007 SP Boof Bonser vs 2008 SP Boof Bonser +3

Total Starting Pitching improvement : +1

Bullpen
2007 CL Joe Nathan vs 2008 CL Joe Nathan 0
2007 RP Pat Neshek vs 2008 RP Pat Neshek 0
2007 RP Matt Gurrier vs 2008 RP Matt Guerrier -1
2007 RP Jesse Crain vs 2008 RP Jesse Crain +2
2007 RP Dennys Reyes vs 2008 RP Dennys Reyes +2
2007 RP Juan Rincon vs 2008 RP Juan Rincon +2
Total Bullpen Improvement: +5
Total Pitching Improvement: +6

Total Improvement overall +21

That is pretty good. I project that on the 25 man roster, an average of 21 Twins will have a decent improvement over last year’s players. This is me probably just being too optimistic but stranger things have happened. Look at 2006, almost all the Twins had their best year so far. Of course other teams got substantially better and you don’t have to look outside of the Twins’ division. Detroit will have the scariest lineup in the major leagues and we will get to face them plenty this season. The bottom line is this. The Twins just lost their best pitcher ever in Johan Santana and some dude named Torii Hunter in the offseason, hence many are writing the Twins off as rebuilding project aimed to get good in 2010 for their new ballpark. Just don’t be surprised if the “rebuilding” Twins have a better record in 2008 than they did in 2007.

Spring Training and 2008

The Twins started spring training yesterday. They lost 6-1 to the Reds, but hey it is just spring training. Francisco Liriano finally arrived to camp on Wednesday as well. It makes one wonder how the Twins would have done in 2007 (and for the playoffs in 2006) with a healthy Liriano. Boy am I excited to watch him this year. He is my current favorite athlete, right in front of Deron Williams. The Twins had a very disappointing season last year, especially considering how they had the Cy Young winner, the MVP, the batting champ, the best closer in the game, one of the best center fielders in the game. But other than that they didn’t have a lot. And the stars all had down years except for Hunter. So there is reason to believe that they will be better in 2008 than in 2007, despite the losses of Santana, Hunter, and Silva. Here are five players that will have a better year than last.



Jason Kubel - he will finally have his breakout season. He was once regarded about as high of a prospect as Mauer and Morneau. He should cement himself as the Twins DH for the long term.

Joe Mauer - he wasn’t at full strength last year, look for him to improve power numbers to 15-20 HR and be in the thick of the batting title race.

Boof Bonser - was great towards the end of 2006. He then put on a lot of weight and had a lot of problems in 2007. He dropped 25 pounds in the offseason and he should be better in 2008.

Justin Morneau - the 2006 AL MVP had a great first half of 2007. He slumped big time in the second half, after having a few injuries. Look for him to put up numbers similar to his 2006 season.

Dennys Reyes - The dude was unhittable in 2006 but had a terrible 2007. For some reason he is great one year, terrible the next, great the next, then terrible. 2008 lands on the good year of his crazy cycle of success.