Punto on DL, Casilla called up

The words "Punto" and "DL" go good together. And I've always liked Alexi Casilla. So I'm glad to see that after tonight's game that Casilla was called up to replace Nick Punto who was placed on the DL.

I've always been extremely opposed to Nick Punto taking up a roster spot. The reason is that his bat belongs nowhere near the big leagues. In 2006 he received 472 at bats, and hit .210/.291/.271, good enough for one of the worst offensive seasons ever for a player with that many at-bats. So far this season he has been even worse in 123 at-bats. He is "hitting" .187/.290/.211. It's never good to see a batting average below .200, it's worse to see an on-base percentage below .300, and it's even worse when you have that low of an on-base percentage and have a slugging percentage nearly .80 lower than the on-base percentage. Oh, did I mention that he only has 3 extra base hits this season?

Ok I admit Alexi Casilla was terrible with the Twins earlier this year. But it seems like he has been getting back on track at AAA Rochester with a much better line of .316/.353/.392. He was a huge piece for the Twins last year and we need another boost from him again so that we actually get something from the middle infield.

It sounds like Casilla will take over second base and Brendan Harris will be the shortstop with Matt Tolbert the backup. It's about time Tolbert be forced into a backup position, it is where he belongs. If Casilla can turn things around and Harris can hold off Punto and Tolbert for the last starting infield spot (not likely with Gardenhire's sickening love for Punto and Tolbert) then the Twins lineup will be very solid:

LF Denard Span
C Joe Mauer
1B Justin Morneau
RF Michael Cuddyer
DH Jason Kubel
3B Joe Crede
SS Brendan Harris
CF Carlos Gomez
2B Alexi Casilla

Twins destroy White Sox 20-1

I think the box score speaks for itself today. Joe Mauer has a ridiculous 1.319 OPS. Not to mention 8 home runs in 19 games. If he keeps this pace up, he will be the AL MVP. Also, Michael Cuddaver seems to have woken up and he is on track to have a season similar to his remarkable 2006 year.

The batting order seems like a silly thing to talk about while the pitching on this team has been so horrendous. But we'll do so anyways. The biggest problem with Gardy's batting order has been the #2 spot. Probably 90% or more of the at-bats there this season have been filled by the likes of Alexi Casilla and Matt Tolbert, who were both hitting under the Mendoza line. This is obviously not what you want from your #2 hitter. You want someone who gets on base at a 35 or 40 percent clip, so that the heart of your order has runs to drive in. A little speed/good baserunning skills is a good thing to have as well. This is probably the perfect spot to slot in Joe Mauer. (Although now that he is hammering homers every other day, he is a great #3 hitter as well.) Gardenhire might have figured that out today, and he plugged Mauer into the #2 spot, and just like magic the Twins go off for 20 runs. Now of course nobody scores 20 runs a game, but I think it would help the offense run a little better. Here is my preferred lineup to maximize run scoring potential:

CF Span
C Mauer
1B Morneau
DH Kubel
RF Cuddyer
3B Crede
LF Young
2B Tolbert
SS Harris

I chose Harris over Tolbert in the 9th spot because they both see roughly the same amount of at-bats, but I think it's preferrable to have your worst hitter in the 8th spot rather than the 9th. The reason is that the 9th guy isn't that far away from your power hitters, so why would you want an automatic out 2 batters before Mauer, Morneau, and Kubel come up?

Another decent reason to shift up Mauer, Morneau, and Kubel up one spot is that they will receive a slight increase of at-bats, being a little closer to the top of the order.

Anyways, batting orders are largely overrated, but there are a few things you can easily avoid that can plague your lineup. Perhaps Gardenhire has figured out that one of them is don't place an automatic out in the lineup right before your best hitters come to bat.

Projected HR Totals

From ESPN statistics, here are what their projected home run totals are for the Twins:

52 - Joe Mauer
50 - Justin Morneau
27 - Joe Crede
22 - Jason Kubel
17 - Michael Cuddyer
11 - Brendan Harris
8 - Denard Span
8 - Brian Buscher
6 - Delmon Young
0 - Carlos Gomez
0 - Nick Punto
0 - Matt Tolbert
0 - Mike Redmond

And time to redo my predictions:
Justin Morneau - 38
Joe Mauer - 34
Jason Kubel - 26
Joe Crede - 22
Michael Cuddyer - 18
Delmon Young - 13
Carlos Gomez - 10
Brendan Harris - 9
Denard Span - 7
Brian Buscher - 6
Alexi Casilla - 4
Nick Punto - 1
Matt Tolbert - 1
Mike Redmond - 0

Ranking the Twins position players

Note: These rankings take into account offense AND defense. These aren't necessarily based off numbers. This is how I'd rank their value for the next few months:

1. Mauer - Arguably more valuable to the Twins than any other player is to his team in the majors.
2. Morneau - I'd hate to imagine where the Twins would be without his bat.
3. Span - Gets on base at a great rate, has gold glove defense at all three outfield positions.
4. Kubel - Has great bat, but Span's defense is much better.
5. Cuddyer - The next five could be ranked in almost any order. Cuddyer is a nice right-handed bat with a great arm.
6. Crede - Superb defense, with some nice pop in the bat, although he could get on base at a better clip.
7. Casilla - Has developed into a superb #2 hitter, and I love his range at 2B, although he still makes silly mistakes.
8. Gomez - If his new plate approach develops him into a more patient hitter and he develops a bit more power, he easily cracks into the top five, as he is already the best defensive outfielder in the majors.
9. Young - Don't know where to stick this guy. I'd love to stick him at #3 on this list as that is where his potential is. Still is very young for the majors, we'll see how this season turns out.
10. Punto - He is better than I give him credit for, defense is great, although very over-rated.
11. Harris - Decent bat, can play all over the infield, although not very well.
12. Redmond - One of the best backup catchers in the majors hands-down.
13. Buscher - I really like his bat, his defense is likely why the Twins signed Crede.

Why the Twins should sign Crede

The Twins have been mentioned in connection with 3B Joe Crede. I'm hoping the Twins sign Crede and here is why. Of course the Twins would survive without him and they have Buscher and Harris who can play 3B. But Crede would give the Twins better defense at 3B and he would allow Harris to back-up Casilla and Punto should one of them slump or get hurt. Crede would also add a nice right-handed bat with home run power. Crede was an all-star last year, and he also hit 30 HR in '06. Sure he's been hurt but he's willing to take a one year deal, and so even if he is a bust, he wouldn't hurt the Twins, who have cash to burn. It sounds like if the Twins want Crede, they can have him, as their main competetor, the San Francisco Giants, have dropped out of the running.
Check out the potential lineup with Crede in it:
CF Span
2B Casilla
C Mauer
1B Morneau
3B Crede
LF Cuddyer
DH Kubel
RF Young
SS Harris

Make it happen Bill Smith.

Twins break off talks with Casey Blake

The latest reports about the Twins pursuit of free agent third baseman Casey Blake are that the Twins broke off talks with Blake yesterday after the Twins wouldn't guarantee a third year in their offer. With winter meetings next week there will be lots of players for the Twins to look at and they didn't want to waste all their time with Blake.

I'm a little sad that the Twins didn't sign Blake, but I am glad they didn't sign Blake to the terms he was demanding. During that third year, the Twins would have been paying a 38 year old 8 million a year to play 3B. Besides I'm not too sure he is a huge upgrade over a Buscher/Harris platoon at 3B.

Trade Targets: Yunel Escobar and JJ Hardy

One rule I have learned over the years observing the Twins is that they are much better traders than free-agent signers. Yes there are some good names out there that would help the Twins,and the Twins have the money to spend, but the Twins have shown the inability to make a good, big free-agent signing. We have already discussed trading for 3B Adrian Beltre of the Mariners and 3B Garrett Atkins of the Rockies, perhaps the Twins top two trading targets for that position. But the Twins, believe it or not, the 3B position for the Twins had 91 RBI last year, and that was with Mike Lamb getting 186 or the 576 at-bats. A Buscher/Harris platoon would be almost as good as many of the 3B free agent options out there. Plus their top two position prospects in the higher levels of the minors are probably two third basemen, Luke Hughes and Danny Valencia, who should be ready by 2010.

Third base is somewhat of a problem but the Twins should try to plug their shortstop hole instead. I hope that they won't resign Nick Punto because we all know Ron Gardenhire loves him like his own son and Punto would start every day at SS. We all know about his putrid 2007 season when he was handed a starting job right from the get-go. He is a utility player.

Two names that I would really like the Twins to pursue via trade are Yunel Escobar of the Braves and J.J. Hardy of the Brewers. Both teams are great trading partners for the Twins because the Braves really need outfielders and starting pitching, and they have an excess of infielders, and the Brewers need starting pitching and they are looking to trade some of their infield depth.

Escobar is 26 years old, and a Cuban. He has been with the Braves for 2 years. Last year he had a .366 OBP and .401 SLG and he hit 10 HR while playing good defense at SS. He is young and projects to hit 20-25 HR. He probably projects as an All-Star SS. Solid all-around.

Hardy is also 26. He is ok with the glove. But his bat is amazing. Over the past two seasons he has combined to hit 50 home runs. Last year he had a .343 OBP and .478 SLG.

They both are right-handed hitters, something the Twins need as well.

I have no idea what it would take to get them. Here are trades I would make:

Cuddyer and Blackburn for Escobar.
Cuddyer and Pridie for Hardy.
Bonser, Humber, and Perkins for Hardy.
Slowey for Escobar and a good infield prospect.
Slowey for Hardy and a good prospect.
Young for Escobar.
Span for Escobar.

untradeable players:
Liriano, Baker, Mauer, Morneau, Nathan.

With free-agents free to sign starting tomorrow I am sure we will see more and more Twins rumors.

Let's just hope they don't sign another Livan Hernandez, Tony Bautista, Mike Lamb, Adam Everett, Sidney Ponson, Ramon Ortiz, etc.

Cuddyer/Atkins rumors

-The Twins are being pretty quiet at the GM meetings. But on MLBTradeRumors.com they are reporting that the Twins are in discussions with the Rockies about 3B Garrett Atkins.

From Denver via http://blogs.rockymountainnews.com/rockies/archives/2008/11/twins_cuddyer_c.html

"An intriguing name to watch in any Rockies talks about sending third baseman Garrett Atkins to Minnesota is outfielder Michael Cuddyer, who missed 2 1/2 months last season with a strained tendon in his left index finger and has fallen into a backup role because of the emergence of young Twins outfielders."

"The Rockies are looking to add a quality starter in the offseason, and the Twins could offer the likes of Nick Blackburn or Kevin Slowey. But the Rockies would also like to add a right-handed, run-producing hitter in a multiple-player package, which is where Cuddyer, a strong clubhouse presence, would fit."

"The Twins have rebuilt their outfield with Delmon Young in left, Carlos Gomez in center and Denard Span in right."

If they would take Cuddyer for Atkins straight up, I would say do it. It would solve the 5 outfielders for 4 positions problem and the 3B hole/lacking a right-handed power bat with just one trade. I didn't think Cuddyer's trade value was that high. I'd much rather lose Cuddyer than Young or even Span and Gomez. But if the Rockies are asking for Blackburn or Slowey I would say thanks but no thanks.

Atkins plays in the most hitter-friendly park in all of baseball, Coors Field. The thing that scares me about him is his OPS has gone down each of the last seasons.
2006 OPS: .965, 2007: .853, 2008: .780.
HR 2006: 29, 2007:25, 2008:21.
RBI 2006: 120, 2007:111, 2008:99
On Base Percentage: 2006: .409, 2007: .367, 2008: .328

He is only 28 years old and his salary is in the $4 million range. I don't know everything about him, but I know he is a good hitting third-baseman, although the downward slope he is on scares me. Still he is a better option than Brian Buscher or Brendan Harris.

Trade Targets: Adrian Beltre

Adrian Beltre should be one of the Twins top trade targets this offseason. Brian Buscher was alright last year but he had terrible defense. A Buscher/Harris platoon would be ok but certainly not ideal. Danny Valencia is one of the Twins top prospects in the minor leagues but he probably won't be major league ready for a year. He should be the Twins 3B of the future starting in 2010. But the Twins know they are contenders to make the playoffs in 2009, and they'd like a good 3B.

Adrian Beltre fits the bill. We know the Twins tried to get him at the trade deadline this year, but the Mariners were demanding one of the Twins young starting pitchers. Beltre only has one year left on his contract so he should be a one-year rental, hence dropping his trade value. Plus Beltre KILLS the ball in contract years. In 2004 he was also in the last year of his contract. He hit 48 home runs, 121, RBI, .334 BA, .388 OBP, .629! SLG PCT, and the list goes on and on. Not to mention he plays gold-glove caliber defense and he is a right-handed bat. Think of the damage he could do batting in the Twins lineup with Mauer and Morneau!

The other benefit is that after he leaves the Twins for free agency in 2010, then the Twins will receive 2 first round supplimentary draft picks, a nice bonus, not to mention his $13 million dollar salary off the books. Then Danny Valencia would be ready to step in as the new Twins 3B.

Really it is a perfect fit. Unfortunately the Twins tried to get him in 2008 already and balked at the price tag. The money isn't the issue it's what the Mariners want in return. Now the Mariners are looking for a new general manager, and hopefully the new one won't be as stubborn. The Mariners need starting pitching. The Twins have lots of major-league ready pitching at AAA. I really don't think they should trade Liriano, Baker, Slowey, Blackburn, or Perkins for just one year of Beltre. But if they could throw in some top prospect pitchers then the Mariners might bite. If they need a 3B, Buscher could be included. If they have to trade one of their young, cheap MLB pitchers I would give them only Nick Blackburn. But the Twins likely won't do that.

Mariners get: RHP Anthony Swarzak, RHP Brian Duensing, 3B Brian Buscher
Twins get: 1 year of 3B Adrian Beltre

New lineup:

CF Span
2B Casilla
C Mauer
3B Beltre
1B Morneau
LF Cuddyer
DH Kubel
RF Young
SS Harris


Probability of Twins trading for Beltre: 31%

50 Wins

The Twins are at it again. They are quieting all their critics with this latest win streak of theirs. Nobody thought the Twins would have 50 wins so early in the season and nobody thought they would do better than Detroit and Cleveland. They are only 1 game behind the White Sox. We are at midseason and to get me back into blogging shape it is time to hand out some midseason grades and predictions:

C Joe Mauer - A. The dude is 2nd in On-Base Percentage and Batting Average in the league. He is starting in the All-Star game. I predict he will win his second batting title, the silver slugger, gold glove, and hit 10 HR. (only has 4 HR right now)
1B Justin Morneau - A. He only has 12 HR but is in 2nd place for RBI in the league. He made the all-star team. Prediction: 135 RBI, 25 HR.
2B Alexi Casilla - A+. 4th in the team in RBI with 35 despite playing in only 45 games. He has cemented himself as the Twins 2B of the future.
SS Brendan Harris - C. Needs more consistency.
3B Brian Buscher - A. Solid since being called up. .333 BA and I predict he is the Twins 3B until Danny Valencia reaches the majors.
RF Michael Cuddyer - C. He has gotten worse every year since his great 2006 year.
CF Carlos Gomez - B. A personal favorite, he is the most exciting player in baseball. Scouts say in 2 years he will be an elite talent.
LF Delmon Young - B. He is heating up lately. He is only 22 and was picked #1 for a reason. Prediction: He will still become one of baseball's best hitters.
DH Jason Kubel - A. He is one of the best hitters on the Twins, tied with Morneau for the team lead with 12.

3B Mike Lamb F
SS Adam Everett F
SS Nick Punto C
3B Matt Macri A-
LF Denard Span A-
SS Matt Tolbert B+

SP Livan Hernandez - C
SP Glen Perkins - B
SP Kevin Slowey - A-
SP Scott Baker - A-
SP Nick Blackburn A-

CL Joe Nathan A
RP Craig Breslow A
RP Matt Guerrier B+
RP Dennys Reyes B
RP Boof Bonser F
RP Jesse Crain B+
RP Brian Bass B

Will the Twins be better this year??

To answer this question we will look at how I expect the 2008 player’s improvement or lack thereof vs the 2007 player. The measurement is just level of improvement at that position with 1 being 2008 has a decent improvement over 2007, 3 being really big improvement, and 4 being enormous. Obviously -4 would be an enormous downgrade from 2007 to 2008. Enjoy.

Lineup
2007 C Joe Mauer vs 2008 C Joe Mauer. +2
2007 1B Justin Morneau vs 2008 Justin Morneau +2
2007 2B Luis Castillo vs 2008 Brendan Harris +1
2007 SS Jason Bartlett vs 2008 SS Adam Everett 0
2007 3B Nick Punto vs 2008 3B Mike Lamb +4
2007 LF Jason Tyner vs 2008 LF Delmon Young +4
2007 CF Torii Hunter vs 2008 CF Carlos Gomez? -4
2007 RF Michael Cuddyer vs 2008 Michael Cuddyer 0
2007 DH Rondell White vs 2008 DH Jason Kubel +3

Total lineup improvement +12
Bench
2007 C Mike Redmond vs 2008 C Mike Redmond 0
2007 INF Nick Punto vs 2008 INF Nick Punto +1 (could he get any worse?!)
2007 INF Luis Rodriguez vs 2008 INF Brian Buscher +1
2007 OF Lew Ford vs 2008 OF Craig Monroe +1
2007 INF Garrett Jones vs 2008 INF Garrett Jones 0
Total bench improvement +3
Total offensive improvement +15

Starting Pitching
2007 SP Johan Santana vs 2008 SP Francisco Liriano 0
2007 SP Matt Garza vs 2008 SP Kevin Slowey -1
2007 SP Carlos Silva vs 2008 SP Livan Hernandez -2
2007 SP Scott Baker vs 208 SP Scott Baker +1
2007 SP Boof Bonser vs 2008 SP Boof Bonser +3

Total Starting Pitching improvement : +1

Bullpen
2007 CL Joe Nathan vs 2008 CL Joe Nathan 0
2007 RP Pat Neshek vs 2008 RP Pat Neshek 0
2007 RP Matt Gurrier vs 2008 RP Matt Guerrier -1
2007 RP Jesse Crain vs 2008 RP Jesse Crain +2
2007 RP Dennys Reyes vs 2008 RP Dennys Reyes +2
2007 RP Juan Rincon vs 2008 RP Juan Rincon +2
Total Bullpen Improvement: +5
Total Pitching Improvement: +6

Total Improvement overall +21

That is pretty good. I project that on the 25 man roster, an average of 21 Twins will have a decent improvement over last year’s players. This is me probably just being too optimistic but stranger things have happened. Look at 2006, almost all the Twins had their best year so far. Of course other teams got substantially better and you don’t have to look outside of the Twins’ division. Detroit will have the scariest lineup in the major leagues and we will get to face them plenty this season. The bottom line is this. The Twins just lost their best pitcher ever in Johan Santana and some dude named Torii Hunter in the offseason, hence many are writing the Twins off as rebuilding project aimed to get good in 2010 for their new ballpark. Just don’t be surprised if the “rebuilding” Twins have a better record in 2008 than they did in 2007.