Perkins on DL. Henn called up. Who else might be coming up?

Glen Perkins has been horrible over his past few starts, especially last night, and now we know why. Perkins told people after the game that he had been dealing with soreness in his elbow for a while. I still don't understand why players (mainly pitchers) try to play through pain, as they only end up hurting themselves and the team. No good ever comes from keeping an injury hidden, and trying to fight through it. Right Liriano and Neshek? They learned that lesson the hard way by getting Tommy John surgery, let's hope Perkins situation isn't as serious.

Lefty reliever Sean Henn was called up from AAA ball to take Perkins place on the roster. Henn is deserving, for in 15 games this year he has a 1.13 ERA with 6 saves. He has 17 hits and walked ten, but has struck out 32 in just 24 innings.

Calling Henn up should help bolster the bullpen, but it still forces the Twins to make a decision on who will take Perkins place in the rotation while he is injured. I see three options: R. A. Dickey, Anthony Swarzak, and Kevin Mulvey.

We know about Dickey, the knuckleballer, who is currently in the bullpen. He'd probably give you 5 to 7 innings while giving up 4 or 5 runs. Nothing spectacular, but he'd eat some innings. One problem is that if you use him as your starter, then you lose your long relief arm in the bullpen.

If I were the Twins GM, I would call up Anthony Swarzak. Swarzak was a 2nd round pick in 2004. He is pitching very well in AAA this year, and is probably the Twins best pitching prospect right now. He has made 7 starts so far this year. In 44 innings he has given up 11 walks, 40 hits, while striking out 32. He has a 2.25 ERA. For those of you who care about win-loss record (you shouldn't) he is 2-3. He also went 5-0 at AAA at the end of last season. I would love to see Swarzak in a Twins uniform this weekend. But if they don't choose Dickey or Swarzak, they might choose Kevin Mulvey.

Kevin Mulvey was a pitcher the Twins acquired in the Johan Santana trade. The Twins might like to bring him up to show that they did get some good value from the Santana trade (but if they really felt like doing that, they would be playing Carlos Gomez every day.) Mulvey has a 4.15 ERA in 34.2 innings so far. He has a better strikeout rate than Swarzak so far, he has 31 K's. But he has given up 19 walks and 34 hits. Clearly Swarzak has had the better year so far.

Who might be sent down or released? Catcher Jose Morales would be a top candidate. Other candidates would be Luis Ayala and Craig Breslow. I would release Luis Ayala, in my mind he has been the worst bullpen pitcher so far. Jesse Crain wouldn't be too far behind those guys, but I doubt the Twins would get rid of him so fast. Only Nathan, Mijares, and Guerrier are to be trusted at this point.

Who are the other top bullpen pitchers that the Twins could call up? They have two amazing relievers in AA, Anthony Slama and Rob Delaney. Slama has a 1.69 ERA, in 21.1 innings he he has a 33-to-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio while allowing just 13 hits. He hasn't given up a run in five straight appearances. Delaney has a 2.22 ERA in 28.1 innings with a 31-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He also hasn't given up a run in five straight appearances. Sick of seeing relievers give up homers late in games? These two have given up just two in 49.2 innings.

The thing that drives many Twins fans crazy is that they are only in AA, despite dominating every level they've pitched at. They should be in AAA at least by now. Slama spent all of last season at A ball despite posting some of the most incredible pitching stats you will see. The Twins are moving these two along much too slowly and now it is hurting them. Hopefully with Henn going to the Twins, one of Slama or Delaney will be promoted to AAA. These two hopefully will be great bullpen options for the Twins in a month or two. And next year the bullpen should look much better with Nathan, Neshek, Mijares, Slama, and Delaney in it.

Baseball America's Top Ten Minnesota Twins Prospects

Baseball America released their top 10 Minnesota Twins prospect list today:

1. Aaron Hicks, of
2. Ben Revere, of
3. Wilson Ramos, c
4. Jose Mijares, lhp
5. Danny Valencia, 3b
6. Anthony Swarzak, rhp
7. Shooter Hunt, rhp
8. Kevin Mulvey, rhp
9. Carlos Gutierrez, rhp
10. Angel Morales, of

I can't say I disagree with it much. I'm not as high on Gutierrez as they are. I like that they rated Mijares that high, he will be a huge help to the bullpen next year. My view on the Twins farm system is that it is very deep, much deeper than in years past, but that it isn't very top heavy, in other words they don't have a top prospect like a Mauer, or a Liriano or Garza or a Young or Morneau sitting there. These guys are probably more like a Kubel, a Slowey, a Casilla, a Bartlett, potential to be good, but maybe not all-stars. But then again, I do have high hopes, especially Hicks should be an all-star, maybe Revere, Ramos, or Morales. I don't know. Nobody does. Nobody knew Span would all of a sudden break out. I guess most these guys won't be helping the team within the next 2 years so we will be able to better judge them as time goes on. But it sure is fun, even though every fan overvalues their team prospects.

Here is Baseball America's former top 10 picks for Twins top prospect:

1999	Michael Cuddyer, 3b	Twins
2000	Michael Cuddyer, 3b	Twins
2001	Adam Johnson, rhp	So. Maryland (Atlantic)
2002	Joe Mauer, c	Twins
2003	Joe Mauer, c	Twins
2004	Joe Mauer, c	Twins
2005	Joe Mauer, c	Twins
2006	Francisco Liriano, lhp	Twins
2007	Matt Garza, rhp	Rays
2008	Nick Blackburn, rhp	Twins

Blackburn was a weird choice, but he was solid last year. Ouch, Adam Johnson was a big bust.

And here is what they think our lineup will look like in 2012:

Catcher	Joe Mauer
First Base	Justin Morneau
Second Base	Alexi Casilla
Third Base	Danny Valencia
Shortstop	Trevor Plouffe
Left Field	Ben Revere
Center Field	Aaron Hicks
Right Field	Delmon Young
Designated Hitter	Jason Kubel
No. 1 Starter	Francisco Liriano
No. 2 Starter	Scott Baker
No. 3 Starter	Kevin Slowey
No. 4 Starter	Nick Blackburn
No. 5 Starter	Glen Perkins
Closer	Joe Nathan

I like it. Plouffe is the worst guy on that list. I'd sure like the Twins to trade for a shortstop like Yunel Escobar or JJ Hardy this winter. But the Twins immediate and long-term future looks very bright.

Help on the way?

Now that we have reviewed who some of the Twins' best prospects are, naturally one would wonder who can help the Twins in 2009. In 2008 several players helped tremendously such as Denard Span, Alexi Casilla, Brian Buscher, Nick Blackburn, Kevin Slowey, Glen Perkins, and Jose Mijares among others. Some, such as Casilla, Span, and Buscher weren't high on people's lists at the start of 2008. So I won't be surprised if someone not on this list helps out in a big way. With that being said here are some prospects close to the majors:

1. Jose Mijares. Left Handed Relief Pitcher. He should be the 7th or 8th inning set-up man. He was dominant in September.
2. Anthony Swarzak. Starting Pitcher. Won't start the season with the Twins unless they trade Blackburn or Perkins. Was lights out when he was called up to AAA.
3. Kevin Mulvey. Starting Pitcher. If Swarzak isn't the first guy to be called up, Mulvey would be in contention as well. Was solid, but not spectacular at AAA last year.
4. Brian Duensing. Starting Pitcher. Same story as Mulvey. Pitched in the Olympics. Had a better year in 2007 than 2008.
5. Phil Humber. Starting Pitcher. This guy will be with the Twins or dropped at the start of 2009, because he is out of options. He will likely be the long-relief out of the bullpen if Bonser is traded.

Others who could be called up if there was an emergency:
Danny Valencia 3B
Luke Hughes 2B/3B
Matt Macri IF
Roberty Delaney RP
Anthony Slama RP
Trevor Plouffe SS

It is hard to say who of these guys will be the Span or Casilla of 2009. My guess is that only Mijares will contribute out of this group. The Twins are too deep and young and they plan to fill some holes through trades or free-agency. Really it is too early to tell. Most these guys if they did come up in 2009 it would be after the all-star break, if not until 2010.

Looking at the Johan Santana Trade: Deolis Guerra

Deolis Guerra
Starter
Born: 4/89
Throws: Right

YEAR LV G GS ERA IP H HR SO BB
2006 A- 17 17 2.20 81.2 59 3 64 37
2007 A+ 21 20 4.01 89.2 80 9 66 25

Deolis Guerra was signed out of Venezuela for a $700,000 bonus as a 16-year-old in 2005. He is a stocky, 6-foot-5 right-hander who wont be 21 until the middle of 2010. He had his debut shortly after his 17th birthday and started his first game at high Single-A last season before turning 18. He was the lone teenage pitcher in the entire league and the average hitter he faced was 23 years old. His numbers plus the age difference is very impressive.

Since his 2006 debut, Guerra has a 3.27 ERA, 135-to-65 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and a .228 opponent's batting average in 178.2 innings. Those numbers are fantastic for someone who's faced advanced competition at such a young age. It is very understandable why the Twins wanted him as one of the centerpieces in the Johan Santana trade.

Guerra can throw in the mid-90s. and being so large and young he should be able to develop a big-time fastball. Guerra's changeup is reportedly his best pitch. Guerra has the highest ceiling as anyone in the Twins system. He could end up the Santana trade look great if he turns out the way people think he might. But young pitchers face numerous obstacles and are far from a sure thing. If Guerra turns out to be nothing then more pressure is on Carlos Gomez and one of Kevin Mulvey or Philip Humber to meet expectations for the Twins to have received a good haul in the Santana trade.

Tim’s Minnesota Twins Top Prospects

1. Carlos Gomez, CF ETA: 2008

A prospect the Twins received in the Johan Santana trade. He is the best all-around athlete in the Twins system now. He is the fastest runner in the Twins organization if not the major leagues. He has power to hit a lot of double and a good number of home runs. He has a cannon arm and is an excellent defender. He is still very raw but will likely be the Twins opening day starting center fielder and leadoff hitter if he has a solid spring training.


2. Deolis Guerra, RHP ETA: 2010-2011

He is somewhat similar to Gomez, a player received from the Mets who has tons of potential but is still somewhat raw. He is from Venezuela and is only 18 years old. He has a huge body frame and has the potential to be an ace and be the Twins #2 starter behind Francisco Liriano.


3. Tyler Robertson, LHP ETA: 2010

6-5, 225 pound, 19 year old lefty. He has three solid different pitches. Last year he struck out 123 batters in 102 innings in A ball. Hitters hit just .227 off of him. He had an ERA of 2.29 and looks to be a top of the rotation starter. Should start the year in AA ball.


4. Anthony Swarzak, RHP ETA: 2009
Anthony Swarzak is a young right-hander in AA. He has hit 95 mph on the radar gun and his curveball is his out pitch and his changeup gives him plenty of strikeouts as well. .Swarzak was the fifth of six pitchers the Twins selected in the first three rounds of the 2004 draft, but he has emerged as one of their top prospects. He has the potential to be a #2 starting pitcher.


5. Ben Revere, CF ETA: 2011
The Twins first round draft choice in 2007. Baseball America said he was the fastest player in the draft. He had a great first year in the minor leagues, with 10 triples and 21 steals in 50 games, to go along with a .388 on-base percentage and a .461 slugging percentage. One problem is that he is unlikely to develop home run power.


6. Jeff Manship, RHP ETA: 2010
The Twins took him in the 14th round of the draft, in 2006. Manship posted a 1.26 ERA in his 14-inning pro debut. Last year he dominated low Single-A with a 1.51 ERA and 77-to-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 77.2 innings. He was then promoted to high Single-A and had a 3.15 ERA there. So Manship had a hugely successful first full season. He doesn’t have overpowering stuff but he should be at least a mid-rotation starter.


7. Kevin Mulvey, RHP ETA: 2008
Acquired from the Mets in the Santana trade. Was the Mets Minor League Pitcher of the Year. He has modest strikeout numbers, but is very good at keeping the ball in the park. He’s just given up 5 home runs in 173 innings. Should develop into a solid #3 or #4 starting pitcher.


8. Trevor Plouffe, SS ETA: 2009

The Twins first round draft pick in 2004. He struggled at low Single-A and high Single-A over the first two seasons. Despite this, the Twins put him in AA as a 20 year old. He had the best year of his career with 9 home runs and 48 extra-base hits. His 37 doubles ranked third in the league. Plouffe has been pushed through the minors quickly, but he is just 21 and he is headed in the right direction.


9. Chris Parmalee RF ETA: 2011-2012

Drafted by the Twins with the 20th overall pick in the 2006 draft. He had a great first pro season with a .369 on-base percentage and a .532 slugging percentage. He had a disappointing last season, and he struck out in 27 percent of his plate appearances. He did rank in the league’s top 10 in homers. He looks like he will develop into a major power threat, since he has 23 homers, 63 extra-base hits in just 184 games as a teenager. But he needs to improve his .249 batting average and 193 strikeouts to be a potential impact bat.


10. Wilson Ramos C ETA: 2011-2012

The Twins signed Ramos of Venezuela as a 16-year-old in 2004. Wilson Ramos made his pro debut at rookie-ball in 2006 and hit .286 with three homers and 16 total extra-base hits, in 46 games. Last year he had a great season and adjusting for his age, level of competition, defensive position, and offensive environment, Ramos' performance was the best of any position player in the Twins' minor-league system. It is tough to say how well Ramos will do in the future because he is a teenage catcher. But Ramos has hit .290 through his first 119 games and has thrown out 41% of basestealers. It looks like he could develop some power as well. If he does reach the majors, he possesses the greatest threat to consider moving Joe Mauer from catcher to 3B.

Looking at the Johan Santana trade: Kevin Mulvey

Kevin Mulvey
Starting Pitcher
Throws: Right
Age: 22

YEAR Level G GS ERA IP H HR SO BB
2007 AA 26 26 3.32 151.2 145 4 110 43

Mulvey was selected by the Mets in the second round of the 2006 draft, Mulvey went right to Double-A after signing with the Mets and had a 1.35 ERA in three starts. Last year in AA, Mulvey had a 3.32 ERA and 110-to-43 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 151.2 innings. Mulvey was chosen as the Mets organization’s Minor League Pitcher of the Year.

He should be ready to join the Twins this year. He projects to be a mid-rotation starter, although he doesn’t have great strikeout totals. He keeps the ball in the park, hitters only have hit five homers off of him in 173 innings. Mulvey is very effective against right-handed batters, they only hit .224 off of him with a .275 slugging % and 274 OPS.

I like Mulvey a lot. He is probably the most overlooked player received in exchange for Johan Santana. Phil Humber has the biggest name, Deolis Guerra has the most upside, but Mulvey might end up being the best pitcher that the Twins received in exchange for Johan Santana. He could fill the #3 or #4 slot in the rotation for a while.

Johan Santana

The #1 question facing the Minnesota Twins and perhaps all of baseball is if, when, and to who Johan Santana will be traded. The rumors have been swirling for months, before the winter meetings started. It has been quiet on the Red Sox and Yankees front since the winter meetings. The Red Sox wish to center a trade around CF Jacoby Ellsbury, SS Jed Lowrie, and SP Justin Masterson, or a different package which substitutes CF Coco Crisp and SP Jon Lester instead of playoff hero Ellsbury. The Yankees have an offer of SP Phil Hughes and CF Melky Cabrera. The Mets have suddenly popped up in discussions and are the front runners now with an offer of SP Deolis Guerra, CF Carlos Gomez, SP Kevin Mulvey, and SP Philip Humber. If they add the Dominican outfield prospect Fernando Martinez, they will likely be the winners in the Santana sweepstakes.
All the offers are solid but I don't think the Twins should take one yet becaue the other teams should offer more. Santana is the best pitcher on the planet, and it's not even close. The Red Sox could package Lester and Ellsbury together, or offer Clay Buchholz. The Yankees could add Robison Cano or Joba Chamberlain or Ian Kennedy, and the Mets, as previously mentioned need to add Fernando Martinez. The thing I don't get is why these teams are so afraid to part with these prospects. Sure, they will probably turn into solid baseball players, perhaps All-Stars, but do any of these guys have even a chance of turning into a Johan Santana type player? I think not. Sure he will cost more money than any other pitcher in history AND some top of the line prospects but he will definitely be worth it. This is the best pitcher on the planet we are talking about.